Gasoline Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Gasoline in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Gasoline Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The third quarter observed a positive price outlook as with the rise in upstream feedstock costs and downstream demands the gasoline prices rose in the said quarter. However, as the crude oil prices started normalizing the gasoline prices also started stabilizing in the Asian markets as well.

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In the Chinese gasoline market, the monthly average spot prices saw a rise of about 4% in Q3 as the prices shifted from 1191 USD/MT in July’23 to about 1245 USD/MT in September’23. However, following a reverse trajectory in Q4, the gasoline monthly average prices dipped from 1245 in September’23 to about 1169 USD/MT in December of 2023.

Europe

Fluctuations in the Asian market also influenced the behavior of the European gasoline markets during the second half of 2023. After the Russian oil exports at lower prices dominated the major buyer markets, OPEC+ decided to hold up stocks for some time to regulate the global oil markets on its terms. This led to a global supply shortage in the third quarter and elevated gasoline prices during this time. However, as the oil supplies became unrestricted again and the demands started dipping the gasoline price too started falling down in the last quarter of the year.

North America

The North American gasoline market behaved no differently from its Asian and European counterparts. The prices started on a firm note at the beginning of Q3’23. Since the American industries finally started behaving normally after the long economic turmoil of the past year, the demands were readily available; this kept pushing the prices upward. However, the fourth quarter saw swift declinations owed to the downfall in crude oil prices during this quarter. Overall, mixed price sentiments were witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Gasoline price trends are likely to continue to fluctuate as per the current global market trends and economy.

Gasoline Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

A fluctuating price trend was observed for gasoline during the first half of the year 2023 in the Asian market. Fluctuations were attributed to the demand patterns from the fuel, diesel, and energy sectors because the upstream costs were relatively stable as the Russian oil supplies were still available to both India and China.

In the Chinese domestic market, gasoline spot prices averaged at around 1237 USD/MT (Spot FD) in the first quarter and at around 1221 USD/MT (Spot FD) during the second. After economic havoc in 2022 owing to the Covid-19 lockdown and various geopolitical tensions, the gasoline market stabilized a little during the discussed period.

Europe

The European gasoline market mimicked the Asian market trends as the prices exhibited stability here. The supply chains were restored, and alternate trade routes were also established; because the war between Russia and Ukraine seemed unending, trade normalization practices were promoted. Gasoline prices started declining eventually and fluctuated within a short range for the period under discussion. Market sentiments were supportive as the supply–demand dynamics were also stable.

North America

The American gasoline market behaved no differently than the global market in the first two quarters of 2023. As the supplies were uninterrupted, the prices declined. However, some reverse fluctuations were observed at the quarter shift because of the hike in inflation caused by the collapse of two major US banks, but general trends were still stable for gasoline.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Gasoline price trends will rise in the upcoming months as the winter season will witness inclined demands from the fuel and energy sectors.

Gasoline Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

After rising exponentially in the first half of 2022, the prices remained firm in the second half. There were barely any fluctuations in the third quarter; however, gasoline prices slid consistently throughout the final quarter. The manufacturing industries were still struggling in China after the lockdown and the Christmas holiday season further depleted the demands. Regular incoming of cheap Russian crude oil also pulled the gasoline price trends down. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

Europe

Inflation hit the European markets hardest during the H1’22 because of the Russia- Ukraine conflict. All the supply chains were disrupted, and the oil prices skyrocketed. But the second half witnessed a little fallback in gasoline prices as the crude oil also subsided. European industries had already downsized or suspended operations for cost maintenance; thus market had very limited queries for gasoline. So, the prices saw fluctuations mostly tilted downwards in a narrow range.

North America

Following the global trends, gasoline prices plummeted in the American market as well. The change occurred primarily after the US Government released 30 million barrels of its strategic oil reserves in the previous quarter after the gasoline prices had shot up because of the Russian war. So, some normalization was observed in the said time period as prices fluctuated towards the lower side.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, further normalization is expected in the Gasoline price trends in the upcoming months as the supply chains and trade routes are also being restored consistently.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Global uncertainty due to the economic backlash caused by the Russia-Ukraine war led to an explosive rise in worldwide gasoline prices. The renewed production in China, post the upliftment of pandemic restrictions, has further caused the prices to inflate. In June 2022, the price in China registered a 27.2% Y-O-Y increase.

Lately, China has decided to hike the market price of gasoline in line with the renewed production. They averaged 8.83-9.90 RMB/Litre in the Chinese domestic market.

To stabilize the domestic market amid rising fuel prices, the Indian Finance Minister on May 2022 announced an 8-rupee reduction in the central tax levied by the central government. Thus, the petrol prices remained stable towards the end of the said quarter. The price of petrol went from 1.25 USD/Litre in May 2022 to 1.23 USD/Litre in June 2022 in the Indian domestic market.

Europe

The European decision to cut the Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of the current year and the effect of this embargo on Russian production caused fuel prices to flare up. However, towards the end of this quarter, a slight relief was seen in prices due to the arrival of substitute gasoline imports from Africa and South America.

Also, with the arrival of Russian flows via Turkey, the price of gasoline fell further. The prices in Germany decreased to 1.99 USD/Litre in June 2022 from 2.36 USD/Litre in May 2022.

North America

Due to the high energy demands from the domestic market, the US refineries are running at the highest capacities recording a 5-year high. The upstream industries struggling to meet the needs caused the prices to inflate in the market. The prices went from 1.08 USD/Litre in April 2022 to 1.30 USD/Litre in June 2022.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The fuel price in India had increased for the sixth time during the last week of March,  with the national capital selling petrol at 99.41 INR/L after a 30 paise increase, and diesel at 90.77 INR/L, after a 35 paise increase. Rates had been raised across the country and they vary by state, depending on the extent of local taxation.

Europe

In recent weeks, Germany has been stunned by increasing gasoline prices, with motorists paying 2.13 EUR/L of gasoline (8.92 USD/USG) at the pump. The situation is even worse for diesel, which, despite government subsidies, is now more expensive than gasoline at 2.25 EUR/L (9.43 USD/USG). Record-high gasoline prices in Germany are a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

North America

Gas prices have been changing, but they are expected to continue to rise in random increments. The price dropped from a high of 4.33 USD/gal of unleaded on March 11 to a low of 4.33 USD/gal by the final week of the month. Fuel prices fell as the price of oil fell, but crude prices have already risen, and it is anticipated predict that gasoline costs will rise as well. According to AAA, the national average for unleaded gasoline was 4.23 USD/gal on Thursday, March 24th, down 5 cents from a week ago and 10 cents below the previous all-time high. With the increase in the price of oil in the third week of March and the growing price of gasoline in the futures market, gasoline prices are predicted to increase as well.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In October, petrol price in India had risen to 109 INR/L which increased slightly in November to 110 INR/L but dropped in December to 95 INR/L after the government reduced the value-added tax on petrol from 30% to 19%.

Europe

Europe witnessed soaring energy prices even in the final quarter of 2021. Gas prices in Europe observed record highs in October as a continuation of the ongoing energy crisis in the region as winter approached.

North America

The average retail gasoline prices in the US increased to 3.4 USD/gal in November 2021, rising by almost 61% in 12 months from 2.11 USD/gal in the previous year. The price increased due to the oncoming festive season of Thanksgiving which increased the consumption of the fuel.

Latin America

In Brazil, the fuel prices witnessed yet another increase in the final quarter of 2021 as announced by the state-controlled oil company Petrobras. Gasoline prices increased by 7.04% jumping from 2.98 BRL/L to 3.19 BRL/L. The price increased in the country as a result of high international costs as the Brazilian Real weakened against the dollar.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In the first quarter in India, the petrol price rose to 91 INR/L, rising even further to 98 INR/L in the second quarter as oil companies hiked their prices 15 times during June 2021. The price had finally increased to 101.55 INR/L in August 2021 as oil companies continued to gradually increase their prices.

Europe

In September 2021, petrol price in Netherlands climbed to a record high 9.91 USD/gal as a result of rise in crude oil prices as well as high taxes on the fuel.

North America

As more and more people got vaccinated in the US, the mobility increased which raised the demand for gasoline in the region. The gasoline inventories were low, while at the same time the price crude oil jumped. All these factors increased the fuel prices in US to above 3 USD/gal in the beginning of May 2021 rising from 2.85 USD/gal in March 2021. By the end of July 2021, the price in US was as high as 3.166 USD/gal.

Latin America

In Brazil, Petrobras announced a rise in gasoline prices in July 2021. The price was estimated to increase by 16 centavos per litre as the global prices for petrol and petroleum increased. The inflation in Brazil had increased by 8% as a result of high gasoline prices.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In March, the petrol price had declined to 69.63 INR/L due to a weak demand as a result of lockdowns imposed by the government to curb the rising number of coronavirus cases. In June 2020, the price increased in India to 80.47 INR/L as Oil Marketing companies started to revise their rates. In the later months, the price rose to 81.06 INR/L and remained steady for the rest of the year.

Europe

In Europe, the oil prices plummeted as the global demand dropped due to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. They witnessed a downward trend dropping by 20 USD/barrel. Gasoline prices in the European Union consequently dropped by 15 cents/L.

North America

In the beginning of the year, the demand for petrol and petroleum products plummeted in North America with the rise in the cases of the coronavirus pandemic which caused the governments to impose restrictions on transportation affecting the gasoline market in the region. The crude oil prices dropped and so did the gasoline prices.

In March and April, the price of crude oil dropped by 34% and 48.8% respectively as a consequence of low demand amid high supplies. Gasoline prices had dropped significantly in the United States to around 0.8535 USD/gal in March 2020. By May 2020, the petroleum market showed signs of recovery as businesses reopened partially. The price of crude petroleum increased by 35.9% and 74% in May and June respectively.

Latin America

In March 2020, the state-controlled oil company in Brazil, Petrobras, cut down the gasoline price by almost 10% as oil prices collapsed in the region. Price of gasoline was down by 0.16 BRL/L. Petrobras has a near monopoly in refining in Brazil and a reduction in gasoline prices made the market competitive against ethanol which was previously observing high demand in the fuel market due to its comparatively lower prices. However, the price drop increased the gasoline demand in the country by around 7.5%.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Gasoline. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.