New York Raw Sugar Nears 21 Cents per Pound by mid-October on Supply Tightness

• New York raw sugar reached about 19.93 cents per pound on October 2 and 20.87 cents on October 15
• Brazil Centre South cane crushing fell about 28 percent per mill in the week ended September 27
• Indian Maharashtra ex mill S30 rose from 4,660 to 5,130 rupees per quintal between October 8 and 15
• North Karnataka farmers demanded Fair and Remunerative Price of 5,500 rupees per tonne of cane
• London December white sugar climbed from 531.50 to 553.60 dollars per tonne over the two weeks

Global sugar markets moved sharply higher through the first half of October 2026, with New York raw sugar futures reaching close to 20 cents per pound and Indian domestic ex mill prices firming by nearly 10 percent in major producing states as crushing delays, weather damage, and farmer protests tightened near term supply. On October 2, the March 2027 New York raw sugar contract settled at about 19.93 cents per pound, up 5.23 percent on the day within a trading range of 18.93 to 19.96 cents, with volume surging 115.5 percent to 308,771 contracts. London December white sugar rose 4.77 percent to about 531.50 dollars per tonne during the same session.

Brazilian supply issues set the tone early in the month. Weekly cane crushing per Centre South mill fell about 28 percent in the week ended September 27 compared with early August, as heavy rain interrupted sugar loading at Santos port for at least 35 days during July to September. Weather forecasts pointed to further heavy rain through October 5, limiting the chance of making up lost crushing days. The Food and Agriculture Organization September sugar price index rose to 114.0, and managed money net long positions in New York raw sugar climbed 1,707 contracts to 218,336 by late September.

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Indian domestic prices firmed in parallel. By October 8, Maharashtra and Karnataka ex mill S grade raw sugar had recovered by 120 to 150 rupees per quintal and Uttar Pradesh moved up 40 to 60 rupees. Maharashtra S grade stood near 4,660 rupees per quintal, with M grade at 4,700. By October 15, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh prices firmed further, with Maharashtra S30 at about 5,130 rupees per quintal and M30 at 5,200, and South Karnataka M30 near 5,200 to 5,225 rupees. Delhi destination spot M30 climbed from 4,935 to 5,617.50 rupees per quintal between October 8 and October 15.

Supply disruption in India added to the firm tone. Farmers in North Karnataka launched protests demanding a Fair and Remunerative Price of 5,500 rupees per tonne of cane, with the agitation set to delay crushing in the state. About 55 sugar mills in Maharashtra were operational by October 15 after the state government urged farmers to let mills begin crushing. London white and New York raw sugar continued higher through mid October, with the New York contract near 20.87 cents per pound and London white near 553.60 dollars per tonne on October 15.

For procurement teams in food, beverage, ethanol, pharmaceutical, and industrial sweetener supply chains, the near term action is to lock in November and December sugar coverage before further Brazilian weather or Indian cane protest news widens the firm tone. Soft drink and confectionery buyers should confirm bilateral tenders for November and December shipment from Brazilian, Thai, and Indian origins. Ethanol blenders and distilleries should stress test fourth quarter cost models against a scenario where New York raw sugar holds above 20 cents per pound through the end of the year.