- Global anhydrous ammonia prices strengthened in Q1’26 as Iran war tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted key Middle East supply routes, reducing cargo movement and tightening availability across major importing regions.
- Feedstock pressure stayed strong as natural gas volatility increased production costs, especially in Europe, where local output became less competitive.
- Downstream demand remained steady from fertilizers, supported by spring application in North America and continued procurement from import-dependent Asian buyers.
Anhydrous ammonia prices followed a firm upward trend in Q1’26 due to supply disruption, feedstock pressure, and stable fertilizer demand. In Asia, the trend strengthened as Middle East cargo availability tightened, with nearly 315,000 metric tons per month of liquid ammonia shipments normally moving through Hormuz and almost one-fifth of global supply affected, which raised freight risk and limited import availability. In Europe, the market also moved upward as natural gas volatility reduced local production competitiveness, leading to lower operating rates and tighter regional availability. The region remained exposed to seaborne supply risks, as about one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz. In North America, the trend remained firm but comparatively steadier because domestic supply was stronger, though spring planting demand and global nitrogen tightness supported buying activity.