September NY cocoa closed down 2.51% after Nigerian cocoa exports rose 28% y/y, signaling larger global supply. Heavy rains in West Africa and an emerging El Niño pattern provide underlying support. Near-term prices face bearish pressure from abundant shipments.
July cocoa jumped 6.7% after confirmation of an El Niño pattern that could bring dry conditions to West Africa, threatening yields. Short positions near three-year highs could fuel further rallies. Prices are supported by reduced surplus forecasts.
Chocolate coated almonds, made by enrobing whole almond kernels in chocolate through the panning process, sit at the meeting point of two agricultural value chains, so pricing reflects the combined behaviour of the almond crop and the cocoa-based coating. Prized in confectionery, baked goods, ice creams, custards and festive gifting, the product carries cost exposure to both tree-nut harvests and the wider cocoa complex, leaving it sensitive to weather, crop health and consumer appetite for indulgent snacks.
Through H1 2026, sentiment eased, reversing the elevated cost pressure built up over the preceding two years. Almond availability remained adequate but unevenly spread across exporting origins, keeping kernel costs broadly steady. The dominant influence came from the chocolate coating: cocoa prices fell sharply through the half, as improved rainfall and a recovering harvest across Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana lifted West African output well above the depressed levels of the prior two seasons, pushing the market from deficit toward an expected surplus. Global benchmark cocoa prices declined roughly a third year-on-year into Q1 2026, easing input costs for manufacturers. Asian markets saw steady offtake on snacking and gifting demand, European material softened with lower cocoa-derivative costs, and North American prices eased in sympathy with the broader cocoa correction. Confectionery and bakery manufacturers benefited from the improved cost environment, though buyers stayed watchful given the crop's history of sharp weather-driven reversals.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, chocolate coated almonds prices are likely to stay range-bound to softer through the remainder of 2026 provided West African cocoa production continues its recovery, though almond harvest outcomes and any renewed weather disruption to the cocoa crop remain the principal upside risks.
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In 2025, chocolate-coated almond prices showed notable ups and downs across global markets. Early in the year, almond prices rose sharply due to strong international demand and fears of crop shortfalls in major producing regions like Turkey and the United States. Limited supplies pushed prices higher, and both local and imported varieties reached similar levels. Cocoa, the main ingredient for chocolate coating, also saw steep price increases in the first half of the year. Poor harvests in West Africa, unseasonal weather, plant diseases, and trade tariffs created supply pressure, raising production costs for chocolate-coated almonds.
In the middle of the year, almond prices dropped briefly after forecast corrections and the availability of existing stocks eased immediate supply concerns. Cocoa prices fluctuated due to temporary market corrections and some improvement in supply expectations, but overall costs remained high. In the third quarter, cocoa prices eased slightly as manufacturers reduced processing and explored alternatives, while almond demand stayed steady for snacks and festive sales.
By the fourth quarter, prices stabilized moderately. Cocoa prices were lower than their early-year highs, and almond supplies became steadier. This allowed chocolate-coated almond prices to remain firm but manageable for manufacturers and consumers.
Chocolate Coated Almonds, as the name says, are basically those almonds which are dipped in and processed with chocolate. These are processed commercially and are widely used to enhance the taste of the dishes or food products. They contain antioxidants and flavonoids. These almonds are extensively used in food products like sweets, chocolates, custards, etc.
Sweets, Baked Goods, Chocolates, Custards, Biscuits, Ice Creams
Cadbury NZ (Mondelez International Group), Vieira De Castro, Blue Diamond Growers, Sapphire (Dugar Overseas Pvt. Ltd.), ApricotKing
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In the panning process, a large drum is utilised that is set to spin at a certain speed in order to prevent the spilling of the inner materials, in this case, almonds. The liquid chocolate is gently poured upon the almonds placed inside the drum to form a chocolate coating around them. After obtaining the desired coating thickness, these almonds are finally polished and sold.
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