Corrugated Box Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Corrugated Box in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Corrugated Box Price Trend for Second Half of 2023

In Europe, the anticipated rebound in demand for the corrugated box market was suppressed due to several key factors. The foremost cause of this muted growth of the market was the region's cost-of-living crisis, driven by inflation and high fuel prices, which has curbed consumer spending on paper packaging. Additionally, budget-conscious consumers started shifting towards cheaper alternatives and started preferring discounted options which eventually resulted in overstocking of the cartons.

Corrugated Box Price Chart

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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine also disrupted the supply chain, affecting industries reliant on the region for automotive components, chemicals, and food. Another contributing factor is the rising popularity of returnable plastic containers, particularly for fruits and vegetables, driven partly by uncertainty surrounding government packaging policies. While brand owners favor recyclable paper-based packaging, retailers are increasingly opting for reusable plastic due to the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulations (PPWR).

Despite Europe experiencing declines in corrugated and folding carton demand, markets in Asia and North America remain relatively stable, except in India. In Indian markets, the prices of corrugated boxes registered a significant dip from around 880 USD/square meter (FOB) in July '23 to approximately 780 USD/square meter in December '23. Additionally, the impending implementation of PPWR creates further uncertainty, suggesting a prolonged period of fluctuations and limited growth in the upcoming foreseeable quarters.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Corrugated Box is expected to remain dim, particularly in the European markets, as the rising inflation and low consumer demand will reflect negatively on the price trajectory of corrugated boxes.

Corrugated Box Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

A corrugated box is the most commonly used packaging box for delivery purposes, made up of 3 layers of corrugated sheets. As during the pandemic, demands for Corrugated boxes surged, the prices rode high in the previous years as distant deliveries were the only method employed to exchange commodities. So, as the world opened up and crude oil freight prices stabilized in early 2023, the Corrugated Boxes also witnessed a decline in prices throughout the discussed period.

In the American domestic market, the Corrugated Box prices declined from about 670 USD/MT (CIF, for less than 150 gsm) in January’23 to about 615 USD/MT in June ’23, with an approximate decline of about 8%.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the demand for Corrugated boxes is still high, but the production capacities have also improved over time, so a stable supply-demand dynamic is expected for upcoming times.

Corrugated Box Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Corrugated box price trend for Asia remained anchored in H2 2022. Asia has the largest share of the corrugated box market as the region constituted both major manufacturing and consuming markets like India, China, and Japan. Corrugated boxes have been vital for secured shipments both domestically and internationally and thus remained fundamental to the e-com businesses.

E-com is one market that flourished and grew even during Covid restrictions, as e- com grew, along grew the demand for corrugated boxes. So, the price trend for Corrugated boxes remained afloat even after upstream costs and supply dynamics improved after H1 2022 because the demand too remained high.

Europe

Europe’s economic plight of 2022, unfortunately, didn’t end with the end of the Chinese lockdown in H2 2022. High inflation, and severe energy, and fuel crisis were some of the consequences of the Russia- Ukraine war in the European backyard. So even after the freight situation got better the inflation in Europe didn’t die down. Especially in the case of corrugated boxes even demand supported high price trend. For both virgin and recycled corrugates, price trend observed a positive inclination for most of the H2 2022.

North America

The North American market for corrugated boxes replicated the global trend in H2 2022. As the raw material costs and upstream costs improved a little in the middle of H2 2022, demands too took a positive turn. So, the market demand remained the determining factor for the global corrugated box market in H2 2022.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the global corrugated box industry is set to rise further owing to positive demand inclinations. The market is expected to grow as the world becomes more e-com dependent since shipping in corrugated boxes remains fundamental for the industry.

Corrugated Box Price Trend For the Frist Half of 2022

Asia

The corrugated box industry has been reeling under pressure owing to the sharp increase in the costs of commodities and raw materials supply disruptions. In India, the price of feedstock kraft paper has reached an all-time high; its prices have exploded 90-100% since 2020 and almost 25% in the last couple of months alone. The higher feedstock prices amid the robust demand and trade bottlenecks caused the price trend of the corrugated box to inflate.

The situation in the Indian market has gone from bad to worse as many European countries have banned the export of some grades of waste paper to India. The imported waste paper price averaged 350 USD/MT during the given period. The high costs of waste paper and erratic supplies amid the exponential increase in shipping costs caused the prices of corrugated boxes to remain on the higher side of the scale.

Europe

One of the leading European manufacturers, DS Smith Paper, announced a price increase of around 150 Euro/MT for all recycled container boxes/corrugated boxes applicable all over Europe. According to the manufacturers, another double-digit rise in box price is expected by the autumn. The high energy and material costs owing to the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions have raised the operating costs of paper mills by 263 Euro/MT. Many gas-operating paper mills have suspended production, further tightening the already constricted supply lines and affecting the prices of corrugated boxes.

North America

The price trend for corrugated boxes in the US domestic market aligned with the global outlook. The surging costs of raw materials and higher operating and shipping costs amid the booming downstream demand caused corrugated box prices to rise. The Producer Price Index for corrugated boxes went from 446.945 in January to 471.496 in June 2022, indicating a price hike.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Corrugated Box. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.