Hot‑rolled coil prices fell after the US September CPI came in above forecasts, boosting expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and dragging down broader metals markets. The decline reflects reduced near‑term demand outlook and higher financing costs for steel buyers.
The cold‑rolled/hot‑rolled price spread narrowed in September and is expected to narrow further in October, signalling limited upside for hot‑rolled coil prices. Weak demand and elevated coke costs kept steel‑mill margins under pressure, constraining price gains.
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Rolled Steel | China | EXW | USD 466.00/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | India | EXW | USD 534.00/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | USA | FOB | USD 1,257.00/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | Germany | EXW | USD 681.00/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | Brazil | CIF | USD 608.43/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | China | EXW | USD 467.88/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | India | EXW | USD 512.43/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | USA | FOB | USD 1,217.37/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | Germany | EXW | USD 664.93/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Steel | Brazil | CIF | USD 646.06/MT | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Hot Rolled Steel prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
In the USA, the average price of Hot Rolled Steel rose from ~USD 1,217.37/MT (FOB) in July to ~USD 1,257.00/MT in August, an increase of ~3.3%. US prices moved close to their highest levels since 2022, as mill maintenance outages kept supply tight and service centers held too little stock. Imports recovered somewhat, with slab arrivals rising just over 50% in Q2 compared with late 2025, but this did not ease the tight domestic market. India saw a stronger rise of about 4.2%, from ~USD 512.43/MT (EXW) to ~USD 534.00/MT, while China eased about 0.4%, from ~USD 467.88/MT (EXW) to ~USD 466.00/MT. In China, summer heat and rain slowed construction machinery and steel-structure demand in July, and weak exports kept prices soft, pulling the monthly average slightly lower. Prices then rallied in late August on firmer costs and reduced supply, before holding flat into the National Day holiday. In India, monsoon disruption weakened demand in July, but low inventories and higher input costs allowed major mills to raise prices for September deliveries.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, hot rolled steel prices are likely to stay firm as tight supply and restocking support offers, though weak construction demand may limit gains.
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In the United States, the prices of Hot Rolled Steel were ~USD 1,175.00/MT and ~USD 1,209.10/MT, respectively, in the first two months of Q2’26. The increase was supported by limited mill spot availability, seasonal maintenance, and delivery lead times moving into July and August. U.S. trade protection also strengthened domestic pricing, as tariff measures included 50% duties on metal products and 25% on several derivative products, keeping imported supply costly. North American crude steel output rose 15.6% year-on-year in May to 10.1 million tons, showing stronger mill activity but not enough to weaken prices because trade measures and supply discipline supported sentiment. In Germany, Hot Rolled Steel prices fell from ~EUR 0.59/kg in April to ~EUR 0.58/kg in May, showing a ~1.3% decrease. European prices softened due to weak buyer activity, high distributor stocks, lower processed coil prices, and slower automotive and industrial demand. EU crude steel output was 11.4 million tons in May, down 0.4% year-on-year, while buyers continued drawing down inventories instead of placing larger spot orders.
Hot rolled steel is a type of steel processed at high temperatures above 1,700°F, which is above the recrystallization temperature. This makes it easier to shape and form, resulting in products with a rough surface finish and looser tolerances compared to cold rolled steel. It's commonly used in construction, automotive frames, rail tracks, and agricultural equipment due to its strength, durability, and cost-effectiveness. Hot rolled steel is ideal for applications where precise shapes and smooth finishes aren't critical.
ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation (NSSMC), Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel Group
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Hot rolled steel is widely used in various industrial applications due to its strength, versatility, and cost-efficiency. It is commonly utilized in construction for beams, columns, and structural frameworks. In the automotive industry, it’s used for frames, wheel rims, and chassis components. It also serves in the manufacturing of agricultural equipment, railroad tracks, and heavy machinery. Additionally, hot rolled steel is used in shipbuilding, pipeline construction, and storage tanks, where precise dimensions are less critical but durability is essential.
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