During Q1 2026, the lithium market in China exhibited a highly volatile yet overall firm trend, driven by dynamic shifts in both supply and demand fundamentals, while also reflecting broader global developments. In China, the prices averaged around 26520 USD/MT in January’26.
Prices moved upward at the beginning of the quarter, supported by a surge in downstream demand triggered by policy-led export incentives in the battery sector, which accelerated production across cathode materials and energy storage segments. However, this upward momentum proved unsustainable as seasonal slowdowns during the Lunar New Year and weaker-than-expected electric vehicle sales led to a temporary demand contraction, causing prices to correct mid-quarter.
On the supply side, initial tightness stemming from regulatory constraints, maintenance shutdowns, and disruptions in key raw material sources was gradually offset by the resumption of domestic production and increased overseas shipments, particularly from major exporting regions such as South America and Australia. By March, improved operating rates and rising imports enhanced market availability, while downstream demand began to recover steadily, especially from energy storage applications. Consequently, prices fluctuated within a narrow range in the latter part of the quarter, as the market transitioned toward a more balanced state.
Analyst insight
Lithium prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with fluctuations driven by evolving supply from expanding global production and steady recovery in downstream demand.