Cocoa prices retreated on June 29 as signs of abundant supply emerged, with Nigerian cocoa exports rising 28% year-on-year in May. ICE inventories hit 1.75-year highs, outweighing ongoing weather concerns. Near-term price direction likely lower.
Cocoa prices rallied sharply on June 16 as funds covered short positions and weather forecasts pointed to a possible Super El Niño, threatening West African yields. The market priced in dry conditions ahead, pushing prices to 2.5-week highs. Upward momentum expected.
Asia
The Asian Milk Chocolate NSA Coating market exhibited a largely stable-to-soft trend during Q1 2026. In India and China, adequate imports of cocoa derivatives, comfortable inventories, and moderate activity from confectionery and bakery manufacturers weighed on procurement momentum. Buyers adopted need-based purchasing strategies amid slower consumption growth and cautious inventory management. While demand from premium chocolate, bakery, and snack applications remained supportive, ample product availability and improved logistics prevented significant upward price movement. The market remained balanced overall, with supply sufficiency outweighing demand-side support.
Europe
European prices remained relatively firm compared with Asia, supported by steady demand from confectionery manufacturers and ongoing operational cost pressures across processing facilities. Germany and the Netherlands benefited from resilient chocolate production activity, while higher energy and labor costs continued to influence manufacturing economics. At the same time, improving cocoa crop prospects in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana helped ease raw-material concerns, limiting stronger price increases despite firm downstream consumption.
North America
The North American market remained cautious during Q1 2026 as chocolate manufacturers continued responding to the aftermath of the cocoa price shock experienced during 2024–25. Several confectionery producers pursued formulation adjustments and cost-control measures, while buyers maintained conservative purchasing patterns. Market sentiment gradually improved as cocoa prices corrected from historical highs, although demand recovery remained uneven across confectionery and snack segments.
Analyst Insights
Milk Chocolate NSA Coating prices are expected to remain stable to moderately soft in the near term, supported by improved cocoa availability and balanced inventories. However, any weather-related disruptions in West African cocoa production or stronger-than-expected confectionery demand could provide upside support to prices.
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Milk Chocolate NSA (No Sugar Added) Coating is a confectionery coating formulated with cocoa ingredients, milk solids, vegetable fats, and sugar substitutes instead of conventional sugar. It is widely used in bakery products, protein bars, snacks, and sugar-reduced confectionery applications. NSA coatings provide chocolate flavor while supporting reduced-sugar formulations. Coating chocolates typically use vegetable fats in place of cocoa butter, improving heat stability and eliminating tempering requirements.
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