- Global palm oil prices edged higher in Q2’26 as weather-related production risks in Southeast Asia tightened supply expectations despite adequate global inventories.
- Upstream fundamentals were shaped by El Niño-induced dryness, elevated fertilizer costs, and expectations of lower crude palm oil output in key producing countries, offsetting gains from maturing plantations.
- Downstream demand remained supported by Indonesia’s biodiesel program, while weaker buying from India and softer European consumption limited sharper price increases.
Asia
In Malaysia, the monthly average Palm Oil price was ~MYR 4.22/kg in April and around MYR 4.35/kg in the subsequent month, showing an increase of ~3.1%. The market was primarily supported by supply-side concerns as El Niño-driven dry weather threatened yields across Southeast Asia, with Indonesia’s crude palm oil output expected to decline by 1–2 MMT, while fertilizer costs remained nearly 30% higher, raising production expenses. Although global production for 2026/27 was projected at 81.361 MMT, export supply continued to rely heavily on Indonesia (24.15 MMT) and Malaysia (15.8 MMT), reinforcing Asia’s role as the global price-setting region. Domestic consumption also remained strong, particularly due to Indonesia’s expanding biodiesel program under the B50 mandate, tightening export availability. However, gains were capped as India’s imports fell to 513,403 MT in April before a partial recovery in May because of subdued institutional demand and substitution toward competing vegetable oils.
Europe
In Germany, the monthly average Palm Oil price was ~EUR 0.94/kg in April and around EUR 0.97/kg in the subsequent month, showing an increase of ~3%. Prices were supported by biofuel-related consumption, although weaker edible oil demand and substitution toward alternative vegetable oils limited upward movement across the region.
North America
In the United States, the monthly average Palm Oil price was ~USD 1,072.48/MT in April and around USD 1,105.66/MT in the subsequent month, showing a slight upward trend. Prices gained support from steady demand in food and oleochemical applications, while palm oil remained less preferred than soybean oil for biofuel blending.