- Global Base Oil SN500 moved unevenly in Q1 2026, with Asia mostly stable, Europe turning firm in March, and North America softening early in the quarter before geopolitical risk raised caution.
- Feedstock availability tightened after the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Crude and oil product flows through Hormuz fell from around 20 mb/d, while Gulf production cuts reduced available supply.
- Downstream demand remained uneven. Lubricant buying was cautious at the start of the quarter, while European refiners shifted more output toward diesel and other distillates.
Asia
In Asia, Base Oil SN500 remained largely stable during Q1 2026. Supply was balanced across major regional markets, supported by steady refinery output and adequate availability of Group I base oils. Demand from lubricant blenders remained cautious, especially in China, where slower industrial activity and rising electric vehicle penetration weighed on lubricant consumption. India showed moderate demand, but added regional Group II and Group III capacity reduced import dependence. The Strait of Hormuz disruption raised concern over crude and shipping flows, but Asia did not see an immediate sharp movement in SN500 because inventories and regional supply remained sufficient.
Europe
Europe recorded the strongest upward movement in Q1 2026. The Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz tightened crude and refined product flows, directly affecting European refinery decisions. The Persian Gulf had accounted for around 20.0% of EU and UK diesel imports in 2025, making Europe more exposed to supply disruption. Refiners prioritized diesel and other middle distillates, reducing Group I base oil availability. Some base oil streams were diverted into distillate production, limiting spot supply of SN500. Market activity also slowed as sellers held back offers and buyers faced tighter availability.
North America
In North America, Base Oil SN500 softened early in Q1 2026 due to cautious lubricant demand, steady domestic production, and competitive export conditions. Buyers avoided large restocking, while local supply remained sufficient. The region was less exposed than Europe to immediate Hormuz-linked supply disruption, but crude volatility, freight uncertainty, and tighter global product flows added pressure by March. Export competition also stayed important, as US suppliers faced weaker demand from some overseas markets.