Milling wheat prices in the second half of 2024 moved in a mostly upward direction. In Asia, prices stayed mostly steady through the early part of Q3, helped by balanced supply in major markets like China. China supported stability by managing imports and preparing state purchases to protect farmers if prices weakened. By late Q3, global supply concerns pushed prices slightly higher. India, however, already faced firm prices in Q3, and this pressure grew stronger in Q4 as limited government stocks and delayed releases tightened the market. Weather worries and imports restrictions in nearby Turkey added to the regional strain, while interruptions in Russian exports reduced an important supply channel.
In Europe, Q3 was marked by unstable prices due to reduced yields and falling inventories caused by dry weather and earlier crop damage. These conditions continued into Q4, when drought in Russia opened more export opportunities for European suppliers. Still, trading remained cautious as buyers hesitated at higher costs and farmers held back sales. Western Europe also dealt with lower export availability, which kept the market tight.
North America saw a mixed trend. During Q3, U.S. prices stayed within a narrow range before rising at the end of the quarter as supply from the Black Sea region declined. In Q4, prices initially firmed but later eased when better rainfall improved crop prospects. A strong U.S. dollar also made exports less competitive, limiting further gains.