The watermelon market saw significant pressure in H2 2025, as a combination of factors contributed to the supply as well as demand-related headwinds in the market. In the United States, the domestic season saw a higher-than-average harvest, but the demand could not keep up with the supply. This led to a situation where the prices fell far below the break even costs, as supply continued to outgrow demand. As the domestic season closed in the United States, sourcing started taking place from offshore sources in Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico, where the growing conditions had been favourable.
In India, the price sentiment was negatively impacted by various factors as well. In the Telkoi region of Keonjhar, climate-related issues have led to much smaller sizes of the fruit, as well as per-acre yields, impacting the farmers' profit margin significantly. A food safety concern was also reported from Tamil Nadu, as public warnings of chemical contamination of the produce had impacted demand negatively, resulting in losses for farmers who had not resorted to any such practices at all.