The watermelon market saw significant pressure in H2 2025, as a combination of factors contributed to the supply as well as demand-related headwinds in the market. In the United States, the domestic season saw a higher-than-average harvest, but the demand could not keep up with the supply. This led to a situation where the prices fell far below the break even costs, as supply continued to outgrow demand. As the domestic season closed in the United States, sourcing started taking place from offshore sources in Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico, where the growing conditions had been favourable.
In India, the price sentiment was negatively impacted by various factors as well. In the Telkoi region of Keonjhar, climate-related issues have led to much smaller sizes of the fruit, as well as per-acre yields, impacting the farmers' profit margin significantly. A food safety concern was also reported from Tamil Nadu, as public warnings of chemical contamination of the produce had impacted demand negatively, resulting in losses for farmers who had not resorted to any such practices at all.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, watermelon prices are likely to remain under moderate pressure in the near term, as supply levels in key regions continue to outpace demand growth.
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Watermelon prices showed significant regional variations during the first quarter of 2025. In Bangladesh, despite bumper production that exceeded cultivation targets, urban consumers paid substantially more than farm-gate prices as the fruit changed hands through multiple middlemen. The supply chain inefficiencies continued to create large price disparities between production regions and major cities.
In Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia, watermelon prices declined throughout the quarter as farmers increased production in anticipation of Ramadan demand. However, the market faced oversupply issues when actual consumption fell below expectations. This created favorable conditions for consumers but challenged farmers' profitability.
Global markets experienced mixed trends. Regions affected by extreme weather conditions saw price increases as production volumes fell below forecasts. Meanwhile, areas with favorable growing conditions enjoyed more stable pricing. Transport and input costs remained significant factors, with fuel prices directly impacting the final consumer price regardless of local production conditions.
The seedless watermelon segment continued gaining market share despite higher production costs, reflecting growing consumer preference for convenience. However, farmers hesitated to fully transition due to yield challenges and profitability concerns.
Watermelon is a delicious and cooling fruit with the scientific name Citrullus lanatus with large, oblong or round body with a thick skin and sweet, juicy flesh with black seeds. But seedless cultivars are also widely available. Because of their high-water content, which makes them a refreshing summer fruit, watermelons are well-liked. They are full of antioxidants like lycopene and vitamins, especially vitamin C. Typically eaten raw, sliced, or in salads, watermelons are a preferred ingredient for cold drinks and desserts in the summer.
Cosmetics and skincare, Pharmaceutical research, Food processing, Watermelon seeds
Bayer AG, Syngenta Crop Protection AG, Groupe Limagrain Holding , Sakata Seed Group, TAKII & CO LTD, Rijk Zwaan Zaadteelt En Zaadhandel B.V., Corteva Agriscience
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