Chicago Wheat Eases as United States Ending Stocks Lift to 740 Million Bushels

• United States wheat ending stocks estimate rose to about 740 million bushels in the October outlook
• Russian and Ukrainian export paces ran more than 50 percent below year ago levels
• Local Australian wheat held at 381 Australian dollars per tonne free in store Albany on October 13
• SRW December swap moved higher by 1.98 dollars but closed down 9.89 dollars for the prior week
• United States winter wheat planting reached about 36 percent complete and 16 percent emerged

Global wheat markets moved through a mixed second week of October 2026, with Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis December contracts closing out the prior week at new lows for the move even as fresh United States Department of Agriculture data pointed to a modest production uptick and a wider ending stocks number. Export sales reports showed improved physical demand, but Russian and Ukrainian export paces continued to run more than 50 percent below year ago levels, keeping Black Sea freight and shipment risk as the main driver of volatility across the complex. Winter wheat planting across the United States reached about 36 percent complete and 16 percent emerged by the start of the week, running close to the five year pace in most Midwest states.

The ending stocks estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture moved higher to about 740 million bushels, up from 717 million bushels in the previous month, pulling the market lower through the first part of the week. Traders described the move as a function of slightly larger carryout and softer near term demand expectations, with weekly export sales not yet strong enough to offset the balance sheet revision. Chicago soft red winter wheat support was mapped near 671 cents and resistance near 711 cents on the December contract, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat ran in a 729 to 780 cent band.

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Australian and global cash markets held firmer. On October 13, local wheat was steady at about 381 Australian dollars per tonne free in store Albany in Western Australia, and 352 Australian dollars per tonne track Geelong in Eastern Australia. Local barley traded at about 324 Australian dollars per tonne in the west and 285 Australian dollars per tonne in the east, while canola softened by 6 to 7 Australian dollars per tonne. The ASX wheat benchmark eased 6.50 Australian dollars per tonne to 351.50 Australian dollars, while the SRW Dec26 swap rose 1.98 United States dollars to 355.41 dollars per tonne, down 9.89 dollars for the week. The MATIF Dec26 swap climbed 1.87 Australian dollars to 391.49 Australian dollars per tonne. United States markets were closed on October 12 for the Columbus Day holiday, thinning liquidity across the global wheat complex.

Weather and harvest flow stayed in focus. Forecast rainfall across Queensland and northern New South Wales was set to arrive during the week, with a second event tracking down the east coast and into South Australia that could complicate the start of the Southern Hemisphere harvest preparation window. Buyers appeared to be waiting for new crop arrivals rather than chasing current offers.

For procurement teams in milling, feed, and food ingredient supply chains, the near term action is to lock in October and November wheat coverage while cash values and swap prices sit close to the lower half of recent trading ranges. Flour millers in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East should test bilateral tenders for November and December shipment from Australian and Argentine origins before Black Sea news reshapes the premium structure. Feed buyers should stress test fourth quarter cost models against a scenario where Chicago December wheat firms back toward 730 cents per bushel if Russian or Ukrainian cargo movement stays constrained.