For the First Quarter of 2022
In March 2022, domestic wheat prices increased. It was at an all-time high and varied a little. The average price on March 1 was 2920 RMB/MT, and on March 31, it was 3194 RMB/MT, a 9.38% rise over the previous month. Domestic trade entities were positive, hesitant to sell and hold up prices in the future as a result of the high spike in international wheat prices owing to the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, the domestic wheat market had fewer high-quality and circulating grain sources following March. Flour makers raised the purchase price of wheat several times to ensure output, and the manufacturers increased the price and replenished the warehouse numerous times. However, Indian merchants agreed to export half a million tonnes of wheat in early March, and dealers are anticipated to sign more contracts to take advantage of record-high global prices, boosting shipments from the world's number 2 wheat producer. Fears of supply disruptions from the Black Sea region, which accounts for 30% of world wheat exports, have risen as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
As Russia invaded Ukraine in March, wheat prices blew its previous record high in European trading, casting doubt on the future of exports from two of the world's largest suppliers of the essential commodity. Wheat hit a new high of 344 EUR/MT (384 USD), eclipsing the previous high of 313.5 EUR set late last year. Agricultural commodities are typically less volatile than equities or oil, but they have recently experienced remarkable surges and declines as a result of Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine. With Russia as the world's leading exporter and Ukraine as the fourth, the stakes are especially high for wheat.
Wheat prices have risen as a result of Russia's invasion on Ukraine, compounding already high food prices. Prices were already high prior to this event, owing to relatively constrained supplies in key exporting countries. They are rising even faster as the war raises serious doubts about Russia's and Ukraine's ability to continue exporting. Importers are anticipated to restrict demand by deferring at least some purchases due to historically high and fluctuating global wheat prices. It's also likely that some importers will turn to US wheat if other exporters are unable to meet demand. However, given the current huge price premium for US wheat over other main competitors, a big shift to US wheat is unlikely in the near term. Due to these factors, US exports have been reduced by 10 million bushels to 800 million bushels this month, the lowest level since 2015/16.
For the Fourth Quarter of 2021
Indian wheat prices rose to 305 USD/MT on FOB basis in October, up from 260 USD/MT three months ago, thanks to a jump in exports. Since the introduction of COVID, freight costs have skyrocketed, making it hard for exporters to meet their demands. Sea freight costs have increased, yet the number of vessels available has reduced, resulting in erratic cargo schedules.
Despite the increasing market demand for agricultural produce, logistics delays continued to be a problem.
The price in Ukraine had soared to 320 EUR/MT in late 2021. Weather conditions were favourable in most parts of Europe, allowing winter grain crops to get a head start. According to Cocereal, the European grain trade organization, the total wheat production in EU stood at 128.9 MMT in 2021.
The market price in the US was recorded at 285 USD/MT in the final quarter. The availability of goods in the United States was also reflected in the quotes. On the back of chronic drought and a bleak harvest outlook, Canadian quotations had risen to over 40 USD/MT.
The price in Brazil was 290 USD/MT in the fourth quarter. The price in Argentina remained robust, reaching a high of 0.25 USD/kg in November 2021.Between December and March, Brazil sold nearly 2.5 MMT of wheat, an exceptional number driven by a historically excellent harvest in 2021, with demand pushed further by the conflict between main suppliers Russia and Ukraine. This is encouraging local plantation in Brazil, and it is expected that the production will double in the coming years. Currently, Brazil imports 50% of the commodity from Argentina.
For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021
India's exports increased 887% year on year to 3.07 MMT in the first eight months of 2021, owing to strong demand from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Nepal, and the United Arab Emirates. This is because when Asian purchasers buy from India rather than Russia or Ukraine, they save $10 to $15 on freight.
The market price of the commodity for the first three quarters of the year was 268 USD/MT in January, 276 USD/MT in June, and 271 USD/MT in September.
Wheat output in Russia, the world's top producer, was cut by 12.5 MMT to 72.5 MMT due to an anticipated lesser winter harvest due to frost in February and March, according to USDA.
Italy, the world's leading pasta-producing country, struggled to achieve its pasta-production requirements in MY2021-22. Belarus, another wheat-exporting country, had set a six-month moratorium on exports due to a lower yield in 2021. Despite the fact that the UK crop was significantly larger than in 2020, wheat prices were high due to strong household consumption and global stressors, with cited September prices for produced wheat standing at 229 GBP/MT, up 21.50 GBP/MT from the same month in 2020 (+10%).
The price in the US was 201 USD/MT in January, which rose to 285 USD/MT in September. Drought in the Prairie provinces reduced wheat production by 7.5 MMT in July, bringing it to a 10-year low of 24 MMT. The country is the world's largest producer of durum wheat, which is used to manufacture pasta. Due to the same drought and excessive dryness witnessed in July-August, the production had dropped 1.3 MMT from the previous forecast to 46.2 MMT. United States is a significant producer of durum wheat.
Wheat farmgate prices in Brazil increased by 15.28% year on year. The price started at 0.24 USD/kg on January 1, 2021, which was 20% cheaper than the price of 0.3 USD/kg in 2020. Over the last seven months, the price had risen steadily, reaching 0.29 USD/kg in August 2021.
The wholesale price of the grain in Argentina increased by 10.71% year over year.
The pricing started at 0.24 USD/kg in January 2021, up 26.3% from 0.19 USD/kg in the same month the previous year. In July 2021, the price gradually reduced to 0.2 USD/kg, down from 0.21 USD/kg in 2020.
For the Year 2020
In 2020, the average Indian wheat market price was recorded at 235 USD/MT in the first half of the year while it was 257 USD/MT in the second half. The Chinese market price was recorded at 350 USD/MT in January, 339 USD/MT in June and 377 USD/MT in December, while it was 273 USD/MT in Australia. Sub-milling grade wheat was prevalent in China, supplementing feed diets.
Ukraine's market price was recorded at 190 USD/MT in August and 210 USD/MT in December. Following a major reduction in corn feeding due to restricted domestic and Ukraine-grown maize availability, the EU increased wheat feed and residue use. The outsourced prices rose further in October, reflecting strong global requirement amidst shrinking export availabilities, poor growing conditions in Argentina, and continued dry weather adversely affecting winter wheat conditions in parts of Europe, Northern America, and the Black Sea region, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index Report.
US market price was recorded at 194 USD/MT in January, which rose to 200 USD/MT in December, with a slight dip to 167 USD/MT in August. Strong export demand and sharp increases in row crop values, particularly for maize, also contributed to market bullishness. Improved weather for 2020-21 harvests in certain locations and concerns over growing COVID-19 instances in numerous countries pushed market sentiment lower towards the end of the month in 2020.
In 2020, the price in Argentina was recorded at 245 USD/MT. World wheat prices were firm in 2020, mostly due to dry weather impacting the beginning of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere and unfavourable production conditions in Argentina.
Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Wheat. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.
Procurement Resource provides Wheat prices for several regions around the globe, which are as follows:
Wheat is known as a grass widely cultivated for its seed. This seed is a cereal grain and a worldwide staple food. Several species of wheat together make up the genus Triticum, wherein the most widely grown is common wheat. It is one of the most important sources of carbohydrates or carbs. It has unique viscoelastic and adhesive properties owing to which it is widely used in the preparation of processed foods.
Wheat (crop) is planted in the fall, generally between October and December, and grows over the winter to be harvested in the spring or early summer. Usually, it takes about 7 to 8 months to reach a maturity stage and then it is harvested.
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The displayed pricing data is derived through weighted average purchase price, including contract and spot transactions at the specified locations unless otherwise stated. The information provided comes from the compilation and processing of commercial data officially reported for each nation (i.e. government agencies, external trade bodies, and industry publications).
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