Cotton Market Firms in Early November as India Extends Duty Relief and ICE Futures Hold Above 78 Cents

• ICE December cotton settled 78.50 cents per pound on October 29, down 1.70 cents on the week
• US weekly net export sales reached 254,923 bales with China about 23 percent of the volume
• India extended cotton import duty relief by two months to December 31, 2026, on November 3
• Forward curve shows March 2027 at 82.30 cents and July 2027 at 84.53 cents per pound
• Indian textile and apparel exports rose 17.51 percent year on year in September 2026

Global cotton markets closed October 2026 with a mix of futures firmness, export sales strength, and a critical Indian policy signal that will reshape fourth-quarter trade flows. ICE December futures settled at 78.50 cents per pound on October 29, up 0.35 cent on the day but down 1.70 cents on the week, as traders balanced strong US export sales against softer open interest readings. Cash cotton was quoted at 78.00 cents per pound. Through the morning of October 30, the forward curve stood at 82.30 cents per pound on March 2027, 83.92 cents on May 2027, 84.53 cents on July 2027, and 78.27 cents on October 2027, leaving the market in clear contango with March 2027 about 3.8 cents above December and July 2027 about 6 cents above December. Open interest at 397,103 contracts sat close to the all-time record of 402,264, signalling heavy speculative engagement.

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The bullish driver on October 30 was US export sales. Net sales for the week ended October 22 came in at 254,923 bales, with China accounting for about 23 percent of the volume. The strength confirmed that Chinese mills have resumed rebuilding inventory against domestic reserve sales that started earlier in the year. Support sits at 77.05 cents per pound and resistance at 79.23 cents per pound, with the December first notice day set for November 23, 2026. Through the October 25 to November 5 window, the market also absorbed USDA data, a firmer US dollar at times, and the continuing Texas drought narrative.

The biggest policy move came on November 3. India extended its cotton import duty relief by two months to December 31, 2026. The move is expected to support Indian textile and apparel competitiveness, where exports rose 17.51 percent year on year in US dollar terms in September 2026, even as April to September cumulative growth was only 2.38 percent. The Mission for Cotton Productivity, which runs from 2026-27 to 2030-31, provides a parallel structural support. Indian textile mills had been operating with reduced raw cotton availability after the earlier duty-free policy expired on October 31, 2026, and the two-month extension gives them a window to lift imports against lower domestic output tied to El Nino and FTA-linked demand.

For procurement teams, the fourth-quarter setup argues for staggered cover. Indian spinning and ginning operations should book additional US and Brazilian cotton volumes before the December 31 duty cutoff, while Chinese, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi mills should split origin between US Upland, Brazilian, West African, and Australian cotton to protect blended landed cost. Term buyers negotiating 2027 contracts should move away from fixed premiums toward ICE-linked formulas with explicit basis caps to capture both the contango and the FND rollover dynamic, and should retain contingent allocation against further Indian policy shifts.