US Steel Sheet Prices Surge to Largest Weekly Gain Since March 2025 as Fourth Quarter Squeeze Spills Into 2027

• US sheet prices posted the largest weekly gain since March 2025 in the week to November 3
• Mill spot availability remained thin with lead times running into January 2027
• AISI reported US raw-steel output at an 18-year high in the week ended November 2
• Only 3 percent of late-October buyers reported mills willing to negotiate price
• Section 232 tariffs continue to limit import supply and support domestic pricing

US steel markets opened November 2026 with the sharpest sheet price move in nearly 20 months as a mix of tight spot supply, elevated raw-steel output, and buyers chasing coverage into 2027 fed into the cost line for converters. By November 3, sheet prices posted their largest week-on-week gain since March 2025. Mills with spare spot tonnage were charging a significant premium to published levels, and sell-side comment pointed to lead times reaching into January 2027 even as only 3 percent of buyers in late October reported that mills were willing to negotiate price. The move came on the back of the fall-through from Section 232 tariff policy and a persistent shortfall in import supply that converters had been working around since the summer.

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The supply side tells a different story. On November 2, the American Iron and Steel Institute reported that weekly US raw-steel output had climbed to its highest level since August 2008, with nearly all the gain concentrated in the South. The eighteen-year output peak sat against a background of swinging weekly volumes through the past two months, with the week ended October 24 at 1.774 million short tons, down 5.1 percent, before the November rebound. The paradox, that raw steel output is at an 18-year high while sheet buyers face lead times running into the first quarter of next year, reflects the interaction of mill product-mix choices, imported slab shortfall, and strong pull from the automotive, data-center build-out, and defense procurement programmes.

Underlying fundamentals compound the pressure. US flat-steel offers continued to advance through October on tight supply and improving demand, with HRC spot averages in the mid-US$800s per short ton. Scrap tags held through October but November scrap settlements are now being watched as the next potential catalyst. For procurement teams, the fourth-quarter signal is clear. HRC, CRC, HDGI, and plate buyers in auto, white goods, construction, and oil and gas segments should accelerate November and December coverage before the spot premium widens further, and should press mills for formula-linked contracts rather than list plus premium for first-half 2027 allocations. Converters with flexibility should split origin between domestic mills, select Section 232-exempt imports, and service-centre inventory to protect blended landed cost, since the gap between strong raw-steel output and tight sheet availability is likely to persist through winter maintenance season. Term buyers negotiating 2027 contracts should target index-linked pricing that captures both scrap and HRC curves to avoid being locked at the top of the move.