Corrugated paper prices in China have been undergoing an increasing trend amid strong demand dynamics

• A stable upward trend in corrugated paper prices was driven by a combination of seasonal demand and strategic supply-side interventions.
• Upstream waste paper prices, though volatile, saw rebounds in key regions, contributing to overall cost pressure.
• The approach of the National Day holiday spurred packaging factories to actively replenish inventories, boosting orders.
• Major paper mills executed planned maintenance shutdowns, tightening available supply and supporting the price hike momentum.
• The concurrent release of price increase notices from manufacturers helped solidify the rising market sentiment.

Corrugated paper prices in China have been increasing stably as the upstream raw materials sector, wastepaper prices in certain regions of China exhibited a week characterized by an initial decline followed by a subsequent rebound. Overall, pricing at domestic paper mills remained volatile. As the National Day holiday approached, packaging stations in these areas became more active in shipping their goods, which led to a more concentrated market supply and an increase in deliveries to paper mills. Concurrently, although the operating load at paper mills remained relatively high, rising inventories of finished paper prompted some producers to scale back their operational capacity. This situation fostered an expectation of weaker demand for waste yellow cardboard, and paper mills ultimately adjusted their waste paper prices based on their individual operational needs.

On the supply side, the earlier upward trend in the market had bolstered production enthusiasm among paper manufacturers in several key producing areas, resulting in an increased operating rate for corrugated paper. For a time, corrugated paper inventories in these regions were generally on a downward trend, and while some enterprises reported minor stock builds, the overall inventory pressure on paper mills remained manageable. In a strategic move, several large paper mills had announced and carried out plans for shutdowns and maintenance around the National Day holiday. This initiative aimed to sustain the market momentum for price increases and stimulate purchasing interest in raw paper among packaging factories.

Regarding demand, the seasonal need associated with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival had spurred a temporary release of orders, leading to a slight improvement in order books for packaging factories in certain markets. Furthermore, with scheduled holiday maintenance reducing production, the previously bearish pre-holiday sentiment diminished. Consequently, downstream paper packaging firms demonstrated a willingness to replenish their inventories ahead of the holiday period. However, after the holiday concluded, the completion of terminal demand orders and a shortfall in new orders for packaging factories began to hinder further market growth for corrugated and boxboard paper.

The peak stocking season for corrugated paper linked to the holidays gradually came to an end, and demand subsequently slowed in phases, which reintroduced downward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, the maintenance undertaken by paper mills and the price increase notices they had issued continued to provide some short-term support for the corrugated paper market. As the period concluded, corrugated paper prices were continuing to fluctuate within a consolidated range.