News and Articles

• Barrel cheese closed at $1.4800/lb, down $0.0350 from the prior session.
• Forty-pound block cheese settled at $1.5400/lb, down $0.0300.
• Spring milk volumes are supporting full cheese production schedules.
• USDA raised its full-year cheese price forecast from April levels.
• Class III milk was revised upward to $17.00/cwt on stronger cheese and whey markets.

CME spot cheese prices moved lower on May 21, with barrel cheese settling at $1.4800 per pound, down $0.0350 from the prior session. Forty-pound block cheese closed at $1.5400 per pound, down $0.0300. Daily cash trading data, based on carlot units of 40,000 to 44,000 pounds, showed sellers accepting lower bids across the two main domestic trading grades.

The decline appears limited rather than a sign of weaker market fundamentals. Industry contacts in the Central and East regions reported firm cheese demand and rising inventories during the spring milk flush. Milk volumes continued to support seven-day production schedules at many cheese plants. In the West, output was also strong after the holiday weekend, though some manufacturers still reported very tight spot cheese availability across multiple varieties.

The single-session price drop contrasted with USDA’s latest annual outlook. In its May dairy forecast, USDA raised its full-year cheese price estimate from April levels, supported by stronger whey markets and steady demand. The Class III milk price forecast was also lifted to $17.00 per hundredweight.

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The market is now split between short-term spot pressure and firmer longer-term pricing signals. Processors holding larger spring inventories have added some pressure to cash markets, but lower milk-per-cow expectations and solid foodservice demand are still supporting the forward view.

For cheese buyers, including purchasers of cheddar, mozzarella, processed cheese blends, and related dairy ingredients, the price decline offers a limited buying opportunity. USDA retail data for the same week showed natural cheese blocks averaging $2.43 per pound in the 6 to 8 oz format, little changed from the prior week.

USDA also raised its all-milk price forecast to $21.25 per hundredweight and projected slightly higher cheese and butter prices for 2027. Near-term softness may continue during the seasonal milk flush, but the longer-term cost base for cheese procurement is moving higher.

Buyers with contracts tied to CME barrel or block benchmarks should watch weekly settlements closely. Once spring milk volumes begin to taper, the current pressure on spot prices could ease quickly.