1,4-Butanediol (1,4-BD) Price Trend and Forecast

1,4-Butanediol (1,4-BD) Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of 1,4-Butanediol (1,4-BD) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

1,4-Butanediol (BDO) Price Trend for the Second Half of 2024

Asia

The Asian region, particularly China, experienced a consistent downward trend throughout H2’24. A combination of increased domestic production and seasonal demand fluctuations led to oversupply conditions. While downstream industries like PBAT, THF, and spandex maintained steady demand, this wasn't enough to offset the pressure from surplus inventory and declining feedstock costs.
 

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Production costs remained stable, but cautious buying behaviour persisted throughout the period, contributing to the bearish market sentiment.

Europe

European markets, particularly in Germany, faced significant challenges in H2’24. The market was impacted by weakening demand from construction and coating sectors, while logistics disruptions, including port congestion and extended Red Sea transit times, further complicated the situation. Despite stable demand from THF and PBT segments, overall prices remained under pressure. The European market demonstrated more sensitivity to economic conditions and supply chain disruptions compared to other regions.

North America

In the second half of 2024, butanediol prices in North America showed significant volatility. The market started strong in Q3, driven by robust demand from polyurethane, PBT, and spandex sectors. However, a downturn emerged in the latter part of Q3 due to seasonal slowdown in downstream industries and improved plant efficiencies creating surplus supply. The Q4 brought mixed fortunes as technical issues and maintenance shutdowns at key production facilities temporarily constrained supply, pushing prices higher. Port congestion at East Coast ports added to market uncertainty, though this was partially offset by strong export demand.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the 1,4-Butanediol market is expected to stabilize as supply-demand dynamics reach equilibrium. The focus will likely shift to sustainability initiatives and potential capacity expansions in Asia, while global economic recovery could drive renewed demand growth across regions.
 

1,4-Butanediol Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

The 1,4-butanediol market in Asia experienced a significant uptrend during the first quarter of 2024, largely due to increased production costs and the impact of rising feedstock prices, particularly crude oil. The geopolitical tensions and production cuts by major oil producers heightened these costs, contributing to the overall market momentum. The strong demand from downstream sectors, such as polymers and synthetic rubber, further fueled this upward trajectory. However, the market saw some fluctuations due to disruptions caused by holidays like the Chinese New Year, which temporarily affected production rates and inventory levels.

On a similar note, in the second quarter, China's 1,4-butanediol market continued to rise, propelled by tight supply and robust demand. The shutdown of production units for maintenance and limited imports exacerbated the supply constraints, leading to higher prices. The synthetic rubber sector, a key consumer of BDO, also saw rising prices due to the tight supply, further supporting the bullish trend.

Europe

In Europe, the 1,4-butanediol market experienced positive momentum in the first quarter, with prices increasing in line with rising production costs and a competitive crude oil market. The ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, disrupted trade routes and limited overseas exports, contributing to the market's upward trend. The domestic demand, particularly from sectors like automotive and construction, provided enough support to maintain this positive trend despite external challenges. However, the second quarter saw a shift in the European market dynamics.

Weak demand from derivative sectors, such as synthetic rubber and ABS polymers, coupled with macroeconomic pressures, led to a downturn in BDO prices. The automotive and construction sectors, major consumers of BDO derivatives, reported lower-than-expected consumption, further dampening the market. On the supply side, increased availability of BDO due to the ramping up of production after maintenance activities added to the downward pressure on prices.

North America

In North America, the 1,4-butanediol market followed global trends, facing supply challenges and fluctuating demand throughout the first half of 2024. The first quarter saw limited availability of BDO, driven by transportation delays, maintenance shutdowns, and reduced domestic production rates. The rising freight costs further strained inventories, widening the supply-demand gap and pushing prices upward.

In the second quarter, the market struggled with weak momentum, similar to Europe, as the automotive and construction sectors showed little improvement. The lack of interest in these key industries, coupled with persistent logistical challenges, resulted in delayed purchasing and a generally stagnant market. The overall sentiment in North America reflected the global BDO market's challenges, with prices fluctuating around a stable mean amid these pressures.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of 1,4-Butanediol is estimated to trail a bullish trend with support from the downstream industries and increasing applications of the commodity in several industries.
 

1,4-Butanediol Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The butanediol market drivers fell short in front of persistent economic challenges and a limited supply of crude oil in the third quarter of 2023. However, the dynamics were stabilized by domestic and overseas demand. Also, the product scarcity was caused by the supply shortage due to the shutting down of major manufacturing plants, which levered in favor of the butanediol price trend. In the fourth quarter, the butanediol market turned favorable, and the prices gained stability. Additionally, the downstream demand also improved slightly, exerting a positive influence on the butanediol prices.

Europe

The European countries faced alterations in downstream industries' preferences, such as paints, coatings, and construction, which impacted the pricing trajectory of butanediol negatively. The suppliers majorly focused on decreasing the inventory levels as the existing stockpiles, and thus, the traders offered huge discounts on bulk purchases. The market stabilized in the later months of the year as the costly imports from Asian countries and slowly and steadily improving market demand influenced the market positively.

North America

A slight surge in the cost of raw materials and a boost in sales figures helped in the rise in the butanediol price trend during the third quarter of 2023. Additionally, the market also witnessed a gradual surge in the overall cost of production due to the rise in the prices of crude oil. But this phase of the market could not be followed throughout the quarter and with the influx of cheap imports from Asian countries, the manufacturers had to reduce their price quotations in order to remain relevant in the competition.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of 1,4-Butanediol is expected to follow a feeble trend in the upcoming quarters as the demand from the downstream industries is likely to be tepid.
 

1,4-Butanediol Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The 1,4-butanediol market witnessed an oscillating trend in the Asian Pacific region in both the first and second quarters of 2023. The prices were majorly affected by the on-off demand from the downstream sector and the lower number of inquiries due to the holiday season in China.

However, some slight incline was attributed to the rising operational rates and logistical challenges encored by the majority of suppliers. The weak performance of the 1.4 butanediol market was also because of disruptions in the supply chains due to the shutting of several manufacturing units because of a shortage in the availability of feedstock.

Europe

A stable price trend of 1,4-butanediol was observed in the European region in the first quarter of 2023. The prices were stagnant because of some minor economic fluctuations and high imports from Chinese manufacturers. In addition, the 1,4-butanediol was impacted by sluggish demand from the coating industry and the slow movement of the tetrahydrofuran sector. Owing to these uncertainties, the prices declined in the second quarter. This quarter was also affected by wide strikes from the union members, which lowered the rates of production, impacting the overall supply chain.

North America

In the first quarter of 2023, the price trend of 1,4-butanediol inclined as it was supported by the rising demand and high feedstock prices. Along with this, the economic activities of the region gradually increased their pace, and as a result, the speed of production was stable during this time. However, in the second quarter, the prices nosedived because of the weak demand from the downstream industries.

The poor performance of construction, PTMEG, polymers, and other related sectors was a direct result of the rising inflation, which led to a significant rise in production costs. The manufacturers were not able to put up with these market dynamics, and as a result, the price trend of 1,4-butanediol declined in the second quarter of 2023.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of 1,4-butanediol is expected to remain volatile in the upcoming months. The major influencing factors dictating the price trend of 1,4-butanediol will be the demand from the end-user industries and the rising global inflation rates.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of 1,4-Butanediol (1,4-BD). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.