Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Trend and Forecast

Aluminium Alloy Ingot Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Aluminium Alloy Ingot in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

The pricing pattern of aluminium alloy ingot during the second quarter of 2024 was shaped by several key market drivers. The Asian market, however, showcased a trend exactly opposite to what was observed in the rest of the world. The aluminium alloy ingot prices here declined gradually in Q2’24 as the market drivers failed to extend the required support.
 

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The major setback came from the dull demand from downstream real estate and automotive industries. The excessive production and supply ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival further escalated the downward movement. The concerns of traders were also fueled by increased tariffs on aluminium by the US and European Union, limiting the profits obtained through exports and supporting the southward movement of aluminium alloy ingot prices.

Europe

In European countries, particularly Germany, the aluminium alloy ingot prices increased only marginally through late April, aligning with the balanced outlook of the market around the globe despite the disruptions in trading activities and the bleak outlook of the construction sector. However, by the early phase of the next month, prices inclined further on the back of limited supply of raw materials, extended lead times, and significant surge in the cost of energy production along with shipping from China and East Asian countries. However, the supply pressure was slightly warned off by only the modest demand from downstream manufacturing and automotive industries. However, as compared to the previous months, this quarter was still able to showcase noticeable gains in aluminium alloy ingot price trend.

North America

In North America, during the second quarter, the aluminium alloy ingot prices registered a stable trend during the initial phase of the quarter; however, they fluctuated a little towards the end of it. The initial balance of the market was favored by the striking equilibrium of the supply and demand sectors of the market.

This was, in turn, driven by the increased consumption of domestic produce amid a limited influx of Asian imports due to a substantial increase in the percentage of tariffs imposed. However, as the quarter approached its termination, the scarcity of bauxite, escalated by reduced exports from Guinea during the rainy season, elevated freight costs, and alumina export issues at Rio Tinto of Australia. Further, this struggle of supply and demand sectors was additionally intensified by the surge in the procurement of aluminium alloy ingot from the automotive industries, raising the quotations of aluminium alloy ingot prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium Alloy Ingot is likely to be sensitive of regional interplay of supply and demand sectors, geopolitical dynamics, and improvement of end-user industry’s procurement rates.
 

Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

In the Chinese market, aluminum alloy ingot prices have demonstrated resilience, maintaining stability despite a significant surge in alumina prices. The surge in alumina prices was attributed to disrupted bauxite transportation from Guinea following a deadly explosion at a fuel depot that resulted in potential production cuts and supply shortages.

The stable aluminum alloy ingot prices amidst fluctuating alumina prices indicate a balanced market dynamic, possibly influenced by factors such as ample inventory stocks and stable downstream demand from manufacturing sectors. This stability is beneficial for market participants, providing them with a sense of predictability in pricing and supply chain management strategies amidst the volatile raw material prices.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2024, the European aluminum alloy ingot market experienced fluctuations due to various trade-related uncertainties, starting off on a weak note but showing improvement later. This was influenced by potential interest rate cuts and policy injections in China. Moreover, concerns regarding supply disruptions stemming from potential EU sanctions on Russian aluminum and disruptions in Guinea played a role in shaping market conditions.

Throughout this period, the price of aluminum alloy ingots in Europe remained within a certain range, maintaining stability. The closure of a significant smelter in the US also had an impact on the market, affecting supply dynamics. Looking ahead, challenges related to oversupply are anticipated, particularly with China ramping up production. However, industries within Europe, such as renewables and new energy vehicles, are expected to help consume some of this surplus stock.

North America

In the initial quarter of 2024, the US aluminum alloy ingot market experienced a range of trends, reflecting uncertainties in the global economy. The period commenced with subdued pricing, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. However, as the quarter progressed, there was a slight improvement in market sentiment, driven by expectations of monetary policy support and liquidity injections.

Additionally, concerns over potential supply disruptions, particularly related to sanctions on Russian aluminum and disruptions in bauxite supply from Guinea, impacted market dynamics. The closure of a significant smelter in Marston, Missouri, further impacted the market, leading to a reduction in national aluminum production capacity. This closure, combined with global supply chain disruptions, contributed to market volatility.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, not much change is anticipated in the Aluminum Alloy Ingot price trajectory in the coming months. The supply dynamics will play the key driver going forward.
 

Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Trend for the October - December of 2023
 

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Asia

The fourth quarter of 2023 followed the same trail set up by the previous quarters of 2023. China experienced a shortage of bauxite supplies and thus the rates of export declined during the quarter, hampering the aluminium alloy ingot price trend. However, there was a slight upturn in the trend, too, which was based on the rise in the cost of electricity and energy production and the restricted supply of raw materials.

Europe

In the last quarter, the aluminium alloy ingot prices were stable as the equilibria of demand and supply were balanced. However, in the fourth quarter, the European Union announced additional sanctions on the import of aluminium-related goods, such as aluminium alloy ingot from Russia, which are crucial for the Russian economy amid the persistent tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The automotive and aerospace industries, on the other hand, raised their appetite for aluminium alloy ingot and thus given the circumstances, the aluminium alloy ingot price trend fluctuated.

North America

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US GDP showed a significant rise, and this positive movement helped in the rise of the demand for aluminium alloy ingot along with other base metals from the construction, industrial production, and retail sectors. Another factor that supported the US treasury was the steep fall in the prices of crude oil, which lowered the cost of production in the region and helped the manufacturers overcome the obstacles of heightened interest rates as they increased their production activities.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the forthcoming quarters will be dependent on the automotive and global industrial sectors along with the condition of the global economy.
 

Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

In the initial phase of the third quarter, the aluminium alloy ingot price trend moved with the optimistic approach of the construction and automotive sectors. However, soon, the cautious approach adopted by the overseas players while the rates of production overpowered the demand caused the inventory levels to shoot up and thus resulted in poor trading activities. After the initial downfall, during the rest of the quarter, despite several efforts of government, the demand remained in the negative zone, further affecting the price trend of aluminium alloy ingot.

Europe

The European countries suffered from the disruptions caused by the adverse weather conditions, which resulted in the lowering of construction and manufacturing activities. Further, the consumption of consumers was also hampered by the poor performance of the European economy and consistently increasing rates of interest. Within the end months of this quarter, the prices improved with the help of improvement in the construction and automotive sector demands and strict government policies.

North America

In the first months of the third quarter, the excess supply from the Asia Pacific countries and increasing levels of inventories proved to be a challenge for the growth of aluminium alloy ingot price trend. The end-user industries hesitated in placing a large number of orders, depleted demand for aluminium alloy ingot. During the middle of the quarter, the trend experienced some stability, but soon, due to plunging economic conditions and consistently falling demand, the prices of aluminium alloy ingot experienced a downfall.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium alloy ingot is estimated to struggle with excess stockpiles and feeble demand from the downstream industries.
 

Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Asia-Pacific market witnessed stability in the prices of aluminium alloy ingot in the first quarter of 2023 as the level of inventories and demand for the product maintained a perfect balance. But soon enough, due to the sliding rates of production, the rising level of inventories, and the fall in the prices of aluminium scrap, the price trend of aluminium alloy ingot struggled to maintain its momentum.

In the second quarter, the aluminium alloy ingot market faced challenges from the sluggish demand and high cost of import materials. The overseas market, however, showcased some positive sentiments, but the restricted supply led to a fall in the prices of aluminium alloy ingot.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2023, the price trend of aluminium alloy ingot was stabilized with support from the slow supply to balance the demand from the end-user industries. The demand from Asian countries also inclined after a long holiday season. Thus, the price trend of aluminium alloy ingot surged in the second quarter.

In addition to these factors, the price trend was also supported by the restricted supply and strong demand from the downstream industries. But the financial constraints from the US banking crises and low consumption in the North American states restricted the growth of the aluminium alloy ingot price trend.

North America

The first quarter of 2023 proved to be positive in terms of the prices of aluminium alloy ingot as the demand from Chinese sectors and the imposition of sanctions on Russian imports supported the aluminium alloy ingot market. However, in the second quarter, the price trend stabilized due to fluctuations in the labor market and low procurement of products by the buyers. The supply and demand equilibrium struggled throughout the quarter to maintain its momentum, and the rising inflation along with ongoing financial crises proved to be a huge block in the upward movement of the prices of aluminium alloy ingot.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Aluminium Alloy Ingot is estimated to showcase an oscillating trend as the supply-demand dynamics seem to be uncertain amid the global financial crises and restricted imports from the Russian industries.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.