Butanol Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Butanol in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Butanol Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The butanol market suffered during the first half of 2023. The weak terminal demand from the paint and textile industries caused the spot prices to fall around 16% in Q2 compared to the Q1 values. The economic downturn dampened the market’s demand which caused the manufacturers to lower quotations. An over-saturated market further aided the lower trajectory of price trends. The spot prices of Butanol averaged around 990 USD/MT in June’23 in the Chinese domestic market.

The price trends for Butanol kept firm during the first quarter in the Indian domestic market. The rising downstream demand supported high values. Further, the cheap Russian imports kept the overall prices of petrochemicals stable, thereby maintaining a sturdy balance between demand and supply. However, this momentum soon fizzled towards the latter half of Q2, with spot prices averaging around 1020 USD/MT in June’23.

Europe

The price trends for Butanol recorded a downward pattern in the European markets in the said period. The feeble demand, coupled with the over-supplied inventories, encouraged to actively participate in destocking, causing the butanol prices to fall. The manufacturers further reduced their prices to facilitate the positive movement of products and create room for new production. With China actively dumping its exports in subdued Europe, the prices suffered negatively.

North America

In the first two quarters of 2023, the North American region witnessed a southward trend in butanol prices owing to reduced offtakes from the coating and paint industries. The prices also suffered from reduced export inquiries, high inflation rates, and surging interest levels which led to a drop in production and limited the buying activity in the region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for Butanol are estimated to remain volatile in the upcoming months. Given the economic downturn, the downward trend is likely to continue, further aided by feeble demands and sufficient inventories.

Butanol Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The Asia-Pacific market remained volatile in terms of prices of n-butanol in the last two quarters of 2022. In the initial months, the prices took a toll as the crude oil cost and demand dynamics in the region were uncertain. The imports in Japan declined amid stagnant demand and ample product availability. Also, the regional exporters had to reduce their quotations to support the positive movement of products. In September, the market saw an abrupt rise in the prices of Butanol as the energy production cost inclined and the inventories could not keep up with the demand. In the latter half of 2022, trading activities got disrupted by the surge in covid cases, and the effect of uncertainties in crude oil prices negatively impacted the prices of Butanol.

Europe

In Europe, butanol prices rose marginally as the cost of natural gas production inclined, impacting production rates in the regional market. In the third quarter, the port congestion, decrease in shipment, and high transportation costs led to a negative trend in the prices, and as a result, the prices of Butanol started falling in the fourth quarter. The downward trajectory was fueled by the unsettled demand from the automotive sector and the weak purchasing appetite of buyers due to the rising inflation rates amid the acute energy crisis.

North America

The price trend for Butanol in North America kept stagnant in the third quarter of 2022. This was supported by the consistent European demand, high feedstock costs, and high natural gas costs. However, the demand from the paints and coatings sector was weak, which resulted in the southward movement of the prices in the fourth quarter. Amid the weak demand from the end-user sector, the level of inventories rose, given the feeble conditions of the overseas market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for Butanol are estimated to decline in the upcoming month. The effect of rising inflation rates, low demand from end-user sectors, and soaring energy production costs are likely to influence the butanol market.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the Asian region, the price trends of butanol fluctuated, with prices in China falling by roughly 5% on a quarterly basis and rising by 5.3% in India. The substantial supply shortages and worldwide inflation negatively impacted the petrochemical industry and feed propylene.

In the first half of Q2, increased imports of Russian crude oil in the area had a detrimental effect on petrochemical pricing and lowered product costs. However, due to a considerable drop in upstream costs in the area and shaky demand from plasticizer producers, prices jumped somewhat in the middle of the second quarter before declining near the end of the second quarter.

Europe

During the second quarter, there were significant price swings for Butanol, and its cost increased by 25.5% over the prior quarter. Upstream expenses soared by 20% in the first half of the quarter as a result of upstream supply reductions in the area and upstream inflationary increases at the beginning of the quarter.

Values, however, slightly decreased in the middle of the quarter as a result of a decline in downstream phthalate and paint industry demand for oxo alcohols. Then, prices began to somewhat increase toward the end of Q2 as a result of an increase in the cost of fuel and energy in the area as well as increased production values.

North America

The pricing trend for Butanol continued to follow the pattern from the previous quarter, and product prices increased steadily during the second quarter of 2022, representing a quarterly increase of 15.5% from the first quarter. Costs significantly increased at the start of the quarter as a result of rising feed prices for propylene and upstream naphtha.

After that, the monthly increase became less noticeable, and until the conclusion of the quarter, butanol prices increased. Because North America is the world's top producer of electric vehicles and because the construction and EV car sectors are based there, there has been a steady demand for butanol from phthalate and paint solvent producers.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of Butanol are expected to be on the slightly positive side in the second half. The major propellent of its prices is portended to be in the form of higher upstream costs, apart from stanchioned demands. Moreover, the prices could be backed by the upward thrust in the downstream demands on the back of the construction sector.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the first quarter of 2022, ethanol prices in the northern market increased in tandem with feed (corn) prices. In comparison to Q4 of 2021, prices in Q1 of 2022 increased by 20%. Strong demand from downstream pharmaceuticals and cosmetics influenced its price in Asia positively.

As a result of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, feedstock supply was disrupted, causing ethanol makers to raise their production costs. Prices in China at the end of the first quarter of 2022 were 1175 USD/ton, ex-Shanghai. Furthermore, China's adoption of a lockdown has temporarily halted ethanol output. As a result of feedstock supply disruptions, butanol prices also witnessed an increasing trend.

Europe

Price of ethanol in the European market in the first quarter of 2022 exhibited erratic momentum during the first quarter. Prices were impacted by changing demand from end users such as disinfectants. The war between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the trade route, resulting in a shortage of feed corn and sugarcane, which had a direct proportionate influence on the price of ethanol. They varied from 1075 USD/MT, CFR Hamburg, Germany, to 1055 USD/MT, CFR Hamburg, Germany, in the quarter ending March 2022. Butanol prices followed 

North America

Prices of ethanol in the North American market ranged from 775 USD/MT, FOB Texas to 870 USD/MT, FOB Texas USA at the conclusion of the first quarter of 2022. As tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified and ethanol makers faced restricted supply from feed (corn) growers, prices fell 19 percent in Q1 of 2022 when compared to Q4 of 2021. Corn prices surged throughout this quarter, and as a result, the cost of producing ethanol soared at the quarter's end, raising butanol prices as well.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The market in Asia Pacific showed mixed sentiments as butanol prices rose continuously in the region in the fourth quarter of 2021. Its demand increased across Asia Pacific for a variety of reasons. However, the Indian government's determination to increase local ethanol production resulted in a bigger global sugar supply imbalance. Furthermore, GAIL and GACL JV recently established a second-generation Bio-Ethanol factory in Gujrat, India. Ex-Mumbai bids for the chemical were resolved at 810 USD/MT for the quarter ending December 2021, as a result of the ripple effect.

Europe

Since July 2021, the EU Commission has been working on a package of recommendations known as the "Fit for 55 Package" to line with the European Green Deal and European Climate Change Agreement, which sets tighter standards to attain carbon neutrality by 2050. In Europe, however, the persistent energy crisis, low natural gas supplies, and supply worries kept local market sentiments down. In terms of demand, the German market in 2021 failed to match the advances seen in France and the United Kingdom. As a result, bids in the German market remained buoyant. CFR Hamburg's price during the quarter ending in December 2021 was decided at 1056 USD/MT.

North America

The market in North America remained consolidated throughout the fourth quarter of 2021. The demand expectation for local and international markets surpassed production capacities, as high grain prices pushed companies to lower output capacity. Several facilities, on the other hand, announced turnarounds ahead of schedule to avoid high-cost feedstock.

Several market participants believe that the present trend will continue during the next quarter. As a result of the ripple effect, ethanol offers climbed to an all-time high in Q4 2021, while FOB California Ethanol conversations reached at 694 USD/MT in November 2021.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Overall demand for the chemical from downstream industries in Asia remained strong in Q1 2021. In China, disinfectants demand remained stable compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, China purchased a large amount of ethanol from the United States to meet this need. Feedstock corn prices in China were 35-45% higher. Meanwhile, in the Indian market, abundant availability of feedstock sugarcane pushed down ethanol prices for three months in a row, with CFR India prices falling from 883.2 USD/MT in January 2021 to 750 USD/MT in February 2021.

Butanol prices remained constant-to-high throughout the third quarter of 2021. During Q3, there was a disruption in the supply of ethanol, which was influenced by higher freight costs in China. In the month of September, the price of ethanol in India was roughly 726 USD/MT.

Due to constant demand from the domestic market and significant stock availability, the price trend in the country remained stable. Market participants stated that the goal of blending 20% ethanol into gasoline is becoming more difficult owing to rising feedstock prices.

Europe

During Q1 2021, prices were sustained by limited supply across the area. Despite the fact that Europe relies heavily on ethanol imports from the United States, product availability has been limited. Due to poor feedstock production and strong exports and domestic demand in the United States, supplies remained low. Meanwhile, demand for disinfectants and sanitizers remained consistent throughout the quarter.

In the third quarter of 2021, the European market saw an increase in the chemical’s price due to poor raw material availability, increased purchasing power, decreased industrial production, and higher logistic expenses. During Q3, the downstream industries' demand for ethanol expanded at an exponential rate. Due to worldwide pressure, butanol prices in the European area have continued to rise.

North America

Due to production cuts and increasing demand from local consumers as well as exports, the price of the chemical has risen in North America. Due to a scarcity of feedstock maize, ethanol prices soared in the first quarter of 2021.

Furthermore, the winter season interrupted manufacturing activities throughout the Gulf Coast, resulting in unscheduled shutdowns at many production sites in January and February. Furthermore, due to an unexpected increase in export demand from China, US exports surged.

During Q3, ethanol prices in the region skyrocketed due to a lack of feedstock, transportation challenges, restricted production, and a steady rise in crude oil prices, impacting butanol prices as well. During the quarter, there was an increase in demand from key downstream sectors.

Exporters stated that China's demand for feedstock corn surged significantly in Q3 2021, affecting feedstock corn prices in the US market. The regional supply was impacted by some plant turnarounds reported as a result of Hurricane Ida's aftermath. During the last week of September, the FOB price of ethanol in the United States was estimated at 849 USD/MT.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Butanol. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.