Butter Price Trends and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trends analysis of Butter in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Butter Price Trends for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Asian Butter market exhibited mixed price patterns in H1 2023. Milk yield increased compared to the year 2022, but consumption increased even more as the market moved towards normalization after the lifting of Covid 19 restrictions by the Chinese Government.

So, butter prices were mostly inclined in the Chinese domestic market. A similar trends was seen in the Indian domestic market, where milk and dairy prices rose substantially. The rising labor and energy costs further affected the price trendss for Butter in the said period.

Europe

After attaining unsustainable highs in 2022, butter prices started stabilizing and eventually declined in H1’23. As the supply chains and trade normalized, ample product was available with the manufacturers.

However, the demand did not recover in line with the production, thereby leading to the stocking of products in the market. Hence, the price trendss almost kept flat (wavering downwards) during the first half, and the supply-demand dynamics strived for equilibrium. The spot prices went from around 5613 USD/MT in January’23 to about 5066 USD/MT in June’23.

North America

The North American butter market showcased mixed price sentiments in the first half of 2023. The market normalized compared to the previous year as the upstream costs decreased. The price trendss started inclining gradually in the second quarter as the demand stabilized. The contract prices of Butter averaged around 5305 USD/MT in June’23.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, Butter prices are expected to keep fluctuating in the upcoming months as both upstream costs and end-user consumption are on the rise.

Butter Price Trends for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Butter prices remained on an overall inclined trajectory during the second half of 2023. As the butter and ghee exports rose multifold and the festive season in India (in Q2) increased domestic consumption substantially. So, the prices rose throughout the period under discussion as dairy prices, in general, rose with high demands from the end users.

Europe

The butter prices skyrocketed during the third quarter, given the disruptions in supply chains owing to the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Many dairy farmers had to thin down their herds after financially struggling; hence the milk required for producing Butter was reduced. Further, most of the available supplies were diverted for cheese production, so butter production was squeezed compared to its demand.

However, the butter price trendss soon stabilized and eventually started declining towards the end of the fourth quarter. As the supply chains cleared and trade/ports opened, the factories churned products as much faster; however, the demand was not able to catch up with the newfound momentum, and thus, the prices declined.

North America

Butter prices remained fluctuated in the second half of the year 2022 in the North American market. Because of the freight difficulties and supply chain issues, prices mostly remained inclined as the high inflation and interest rates increased costs for commodities in general. Prices rose in the last month of Q3 after an almost flat curve in the first two months.

A sudden jump in prices was observed at the quarter shift, but the prices were set on a declining trajectory in the middle of Q4 and continued declining for the rest of 2022.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, butter prices will seek normalcy after these erratic highs in 2022, especially in the European and American markets.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Recently, a forward trends in butter prices has been seen in the Asian market. Originally butter was associated with western cuisine; however, it is being promoted aggressively by Fonterra Co-operative Group in the Asian market. The butter processing plants are expanding to keep up with the increasing demands, keeping butter prices steady.

Europe

Due to the declining milk consumption amidst the already constrained milk supply, the commodity’s prices are falling in the European market. Currently, the price for German, Dutch and Irish butter averages 7000 USD/MT for this quarter. The reason behind this falling demand is the recent weather issues like heat waves across the EU hampering butter production.

The high feed costs due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation and the new sustainability-related measures have offset the domestic demand for the commodity. The EU is importing from the United States to meet its requirement, thereby affecting the already tight supplies of the US and driving the prices of the global market further.

North America

Amidst the rising inflation and constant supply disruptions in the dairy and allied sectors, the commodity’s price in the USA reached a multi-year high in June 2022. The US dairy farmers and butter processors are struggling to maintain a stable supply due to the high feed cost, raw materials, and labor shortage. Hence, due to subdued production and tight inventories, the prices averaged a whopping 6008 USD/MT for the April-June quarter.

US butter has a better competitive advantage in the global market and often influences its price trendss worldwide. The US exported more butter than any other butter-producing nation, which strained the already constricted domestic supply, toppling the US butter ledger.

Owing to the higher butter prices, domestic consumers are switching to readily available substitutes like margarine and vegetable oils as inflation has already muted their spending power. As a result, there is high speculation that a downward trends will be seen in the prices of the commodity for the upcoming quarter 3.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Europe

Free-on-board (FOB) butter prices in the European Union increased by EUR 300/MT in the three weeks to January 19th, reaching EUR 5,927/MT. However, butter futures prices are in backwardation (lower than spot prices), indicating that those markets anticipate a minor price correction. Butter prices are expected to remain stable over the next six months.

This high butter price has not been seen since 2018, when premium prices encouraged milk processors to increase butter output, putting downward pressure on prices and resulting in significant drops in butter prices in 2019. However, now, farm expenses are skyrocketing, squeezing farmers' margins, and labour is scarce.

North America

After reaching multi-year highs in January 2022, US butter prices remained firm in Q1 2022. The average price of US butter in the January-March '22 quarter increased by 79 percent quarter on quarter, owing to lower butter production and tight inventories, as well as increased demand from the foodservice sector. Because cheese production capacity is increasing, milk processors are channelling more milk to cheese vats at the expense of butter production.

Rising vegetable fat prices also discourage product substitution while increasing butter demand. Butter inventories in the United States increased by 20% month on month in February '22, to 263 million pounds, but were 26% lower year on year. Inventory levels, according to market participants, are comfortable but not excessive. Some plant managers are working to increase butter inventories if labour shortages and tight cream supplies do not occur, while others believe current butter inventories are adequate.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Europe

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the average European butter price increased by 28%. A large portion of this increase occurred between October and November, when prices increased by 10.7 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, while prices increased marginally by 1.8 percent in December compared to the previous month.

This means that buyers planned to buy ahead of the holiday season due to a decrease in butter output and uncertainty about butter inventories. Furthermore, butter demand remained stable, according to market participants, who reported that butter sales fared well against the Omicron COVID-19 variant. Thus, butter sales in the foodservice sector increased in December compared to the same period the previous year, offsetting a year-on-year decline in retail sales.

North America

Butter prices in the United States remained stable in October. The October average price fell by 0.5 percent month on month to USD 3,886/MT. Overall, US butter prices have increased by 5.2 percent since last August due to a combination of lower butter supplies and higher domestic and international demand.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Butter. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.