Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Crude Coconut Oil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Crude Coconut Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Q4 of 2024

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Asia

The demand for crude coconut oil in Asia remained positive during the last quarter of 2024, driving the price of crude coconut oil upwards. Major producers, including Indonesia and the Philippines, saw moderate price increases due to supply constraints and strong export demand. The prices of crude coconut oil in Indonesian markets were around 1122 USD/MT (EXW) in October and increased to about 1125 USD/MT in December 2024.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Chart

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This shift in the price trajectory resulted from seasonal changes in agricultural production, as well as growing export opportunities to neighboring countries. Additionally, higher local demand for coconut-based products in key consumer markets, particularly in India, supported prices ahead of the festival seasons. However, policy changes by the Indian government, including import duties on competing edible oils, reduced external competition and drove prices upwards in the domestic market.

Europe

Crude coconut oil prices in Europe remained steady with an upward bias throughout Q4 2024. The price gap was narrowed by intense competition between coconut oil and palm kernel oil, reflecting a shift in consumption towards more sustainable and natural alternatives in the European Union. Higher price expectations were influenced by supply constraints from key Asian exporters, particularly the Philippines and Malaysia, who faced reduced production volumes and tightening supplies. Additionally, volatility in the broader vegetable oil market created uncertainty for buyers in Europe.

North America

The crude coconut oil price graph mirrored the trends in the Asian market throughout the last quarter of 2024. Despite logistical problems and supply bottlenecks affecting shipment volumes, imports from Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia remained significant sources of crude coconut oil in the North American region. Demand from the food and beverage sector gained momentum during this period, supporting the upward trajectory of the crude coconut oil price curve.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of crude coconut oil are expected to maintain a similar trend, with a moderate increase in the prices, in the upcoming year influenced by decreasing inventories and rising demand in the global markets.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The Asian region witnessed a notable surge in crude coconut oil prices during the third quarter of 2024. Fuelled by gains in the palm oil sector and a narrowing price differential between coconut oil and palm kernel oil, the market experienced a robust upswing after a period of stagnation.

Coconut oil exports from the Philippines soared to a record 160,214 metric tons, a staggering 170% increase compared to the same period last year. In a significant development, the Indian government's decision to hike the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points in September’24 is poised to elevate imported edible oil prices.

Europe

The European crude coconut oil market also trended upwards in the third quarter, driven by a combination of seasonal demand, export activities, and production challenges in key growing regions. However, market analysts noted that high freight costs continue to pose a significant challenge for exporters, with the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) remaining significantly elevated, at 282% above the pre-pandemic average value of 2019.

North America

The North American crude coconut oil market mirrored the price dynamics observed in Asia and Europe. After initial price slowdowns linked to sluggish downstream demand, prices rebounded as consumer interest grew, reflecting the general upward trend in the global coconut oil market. Nevertheless, market participants in North America also grappled with fluctuations stemming from geopolitical tensions and logistics-related hurdles.

Insight Analyst

According to Procurement Resource, as the festive season approaches, the crude coconut oil market in Asia is poised to experience a further significant rise in prices. This upward trajectory is driven by recent increases in import duties and persistent supply constraints from key production regions.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Asia

An upsurge was witnessed in the crude coconut oil prices in the Asian markets during the first half of the year 2024. Over the given period of six months, the crude coconut oil markets inclined in the Asian region. The price growth was a little steady in the first quarter; however, it picked up pace in the second quarter, primarily because the summer season called for higher crude coconut oil demands. The export queries from the international markets were also high, pushing the prices ahead.

In the Philippines, the monthly average prices went from about 1127 USD/MT (EXW) in January '24 to around 1220 USD/MT (EXW) in June '24. As per the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) and the United Coconut Association of the Philippines (UCAP), a slight increase in the country's coconut oil exports and reduced coconut output from inadequate rainfall anchored the coconut oil markets across the globe. Concurrently, in the Indonesian crude coconut oil market, the prices went from approximately 981 USD/MT in January to about 1062 USD/MT in June '24.

Europe

Influenced by the surges in the Asian crude coconut oil markets, the prices were seen wavering upwards in the European markets as well. Since Europe imports most of its coconut and affiliated products from the key producing coastal countries in Asia, the prices also show a close resemblance in trend. During the first quarter of the year, crude coconut oil prices were slightly stable. However, an uptick with the commencement of the second quarter was seen. Around the end of the second quarter, some normalization was seen in crude coconut oil prices as the demand started to stabilize.

North America

The crude coconut oil market trend in North America was no different than its Asian and European counterparts. Prices fluctuated in a similar manner here as well. The earlier slowdown was associated with sluggish downstream demands. However, the prices picked up later on with the rise in consumer demands. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed for crude coconut oil during the first half of 2024.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, following the current incline in Crude Coconut Oil markets, the prices are likely to normalize steadily in the coming months.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

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Asia

The crude coconut oil market initiated the third quarter with an optimistic approach as the consumption rates from the downstream industries showed a consistent incline. As a result, the Indonesian crude coconut oil prices were able to incline from an average of 925 USD/MT (EXW) in July’23 to around 983 USD/MT in December’23. However, a sudden fall in the trend was observed in the consecutive months as the active purchases from the consumer sector declined at a slow pace.

sts and the availability of cheaper alternatives, further caused ripples in the crude coconut oil market. But still, based on the cost of production, the crude coconut oil market closed the year at a positive note of about 980 USD/MT. The Malaysian region was, however, resilient in its approach as the market only faced limited movement, with a slight decline in averages from 1075 USD/MT (CIF) to 1024 USD/MT.

Europe

During the third quarter of 2023, the European crude coconut oil traders registered a significant uptick in the crude coconut oil price trend. The sentiments of crude coconut oil prices escalated due to the sustained approach from domestic consumers.

However, the producers incurred challenges from the raw materials sector as adverse weather conditions, sudden floods, and abrupt rainfall patterns reduced the agricultural output and limited the availability of the material in the market. However, the market winds changed in the fourth quarter due to the frail condition of the global economy along with the excessive number of overseas imports.

North America

A complex interplay of trading sector, demand and production rates of crude coconut oil dictated the crude coconut oil price trend during the third and fourth quarter of 2023.

The heightened demand from the consumer sector during the third quarter and the availability of export margins helped in the rise in crude coconut oil prices. The incline in advents of bulk ordering and the limited influx of raw materials also widened the supply-demand gap, favoring the rise in crude coconut oil price trend. However, the inventories lined up in the fourth quarter, which somehow destabilized the crude coconut oil market fundamentals.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Crude Coconut Oil is expected to drive upwards as the positive consumer demand and scarcity of raw material produce will support the crude coconut oil pricing pattern.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Crude Coconut Oil is extracted from coconuts that mainly grow in the coastal regions. In the Asian continent, countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are major producers. During H1’23, the prices exhibited rising trend for the majority of the time as the demands from the consumption sector consistently rose.

In Indonesia, the prices rose by about 4% by May’23 and then declined marginally to close the second quarter at about 935 USD/MT(EXW) in June’23. Similarly, in Malaysia, the prices rose by about 7% in the first quarter and subsided by around 6% in the second quarter. Fluctuating within a narrow range, Crude Coconut Oil prices declined by about 6% in the Philippines over the six months, with some upward fluctuations in the middle of the second quarter.

Europe

The European Crude Coconut Oil market saw a consistent incline in prices due to heavy import dependence. In the Netherlands, the prices rose by about 3% by the middle of the second quarter after starting the year at an average monthly spot price of about 2047 USD/MT In January’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the current market behavior of Crude Coconut Oil, further fluctuations in the upcoming months are expected.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Crude Coconut Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.