Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Crude Coconut Oil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Crude Coconut Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for Q2 of 2025

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Asia

The Indonesian crude coconut oil market displayed evident price appreciation in Q2’25. The prices were about 2503 USD/MT (EXW) in April and around 2575 USD/MT in May. A dominant underlying factor was a chronic shortage of raw coconuts owing to low harvests caused by harsh weather. Consequently, the availability of copra, the raw material necessary for oil production, remained constricted during the quarter. Along with this, there was high export demand, particularly from destinations such as China, which affected domestic availability.
 

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The supply chain was subjected to added pressure by slowdowns in processing, poor plantation operations, and extended delivery times for both coconuts and oil. Even in some instances, producers waited for improved margins, holding onto their stocks, which maintained the market taut. Demand from domestic consumers and export buyers, particularly for food and personal care, was also active, further bolstering the firmness in prices. The depreciating US dollar also helped Indonesia be more competitive in exports, keeping the trading brisk.

Malaysia's market also trended in a similar direction. Narrow raw material supplies, paired with a good export market, dominated much of the quarter. The prices were about 2538 USD/MT (CIF) in April and around 2565 USD/MT in May. Local and overseas buyers remained interested, even as local supplies narrowed.

Like Indonesia, Malaysian processors and exporters were faced with having to work through low levels of availability of coconuts and higher costs of inputs. Meanwhile, the Philippines recorded the steepest price increases among top producers, driven mainly by a precipitous decline in coconut yields due to both typhoons and drought.

The prices were about 3016 USD/MT (EXW) in April and around 3105 USD/MT in May. Aging coconut trees in the Philippines and frequent weather interruptions sliced deep into supply, rendering it more difficult for processors to fill domestic and export demand. Overall, a positive price trajectory was seen for crude coconut oil during the second quarter of 2025.

Europe

The European crude coconut oil market reflected Southeast Asia's supply tightness with prices moving upwards during the quarter. With lower shipments from major suppliers and high demand from food and cosmetics producers, European buyers were fighting for fewer cargoes.

Importers experienced longer waiting times and less accommodating contract terms, with some even shifting their sourcing strategy to maintain stable supply. The high demand, coupled with the continuing supply disruptions in Asia, caused prices to go in the same direction as origin countries.

North America

In the North American markets also the pricing outlook was not very different from other global markets. Supply shortages from Southeast Asian manufacturers created lower availability, and United States and Canadian buyers had to deal with tighter stocks and higher prices.

Food and household product makers, especially, experienced greater competition for imports. The general attitude within the market remained wary, with most waiting for any indication that relief was at hand from the continued shortages.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, looking ahead, unless there is a meaningful recovery in coconut production or a shift in global demand, the price environment for crude coconut oil is expected to remain firm.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for Q1 of 2025

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Asia

Indonesia Crude Coconut Oil prices experienced a steady climb during Q1 2025 due to the tightening supply situation and lower coconut production as a result of unfavorable weather. The increasing price was also compounded by escalated logistical and shipping fees in Southeast Asia. While the production declined, there was continuous demand from food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries, which kept the markets elevated. The average monthly prices were about 1135 USD/MT (EXW) in Indonesia in January and went to around 1160 USD/MT in March 2025.

Likewise, Malaysia experienced higher prices owing to production limitations. Weather disruptions and shortages of labor in plantations caused diminished yield expectations, further pushing up prices. Export logistics were hindered by supply chains bottlenecks that made it challenging to supply internationally at reduced prices. Consequently, Malaysia's market reflected a price increase, although volatility persisted as supply conditions varied throughout the quarter. The prices were about 1213 USD/MT (CIF) in January in Malaysia and reached around 1240 USD/MT in March’25.

The Philippines, being one of the major coconut oil producers, experienced similar rise in market trend. Production disruptions due to weather conditions caused scarce supplies, and higher transport costs contributed to the price increment. Demand stayed constant, particularly from the food and cosmetic industries, but inefficiencies in logistics made the prices volatile. Even with production difficulties on the supply side, the demand carried the market, and prices went up. The prices were about 1298 USD/MT (EXW) in January’25 in Philippines and went up to around 1330 USD/MT in March.

Europe

In Europe, the market for coconut oil witnessed a price volatility during Q1 2025 because of increasing import prices as well as logistical issues. The prices first rose as supply shortages from the Philippines and Indonesia influenced the supply of coconut oil.

Geopolitical tensions, coupled with increasing shipping costs, added to the upward pressure. During the latter part of the quarter, the market witnessed some respite with freight easing, and this resulted in a price correction. Nevertheless, the downstream demands still remained supportive.

North America

North America's Crude Coconut Oil market also trended in the same direction in Q1 2025, recording fluctuating prices because of disruptions in the supply chain from major producing nations.

The quarter started on a firm note due to high demand and short supply. Subsequently, the relaxation of logistics hurdles brought some consolation, yet worries regarding weather in the production areas and feedstock prices maintained the market guarded. Overall, positive market sentiments were witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ongoing supply chain disruptions will continue to affect the crude coconut oil prices, however, expected easing in the trade fundamentals can bring some consolation to crude coconut oil price trend globally.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for Q4 of 2024

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Asia

The demand for crude coconut oil in Asia remained positive during the last quarter of 2024, driving the price of crude coconut oil upwards. Major producers, including Indonesia and the Philippines, saw moderate price increases due to supply constraints and strong export demand. The prices of crude coconut oil in Indonesian markets were around 1122 USD/MT (EXW) in October and increased to about 1125 USD/MT in December 2024.

This shift in the price trajectory resulted from seasonal changes in agricultural production, as well as growing export opportunities to neighboring countries. Additionally, higher local demand for coconut-based products in key consumer markets, particularly in India, supported prices ahead of the festival seasons. However, policy changes by the Indian government, including import duties on competing edible oils, reduced external competition and drove prices upwards in the domestic market.

Europe

Crude coconut oil prices in Europe remained steady with an upward bias throughout Q4 2024. The price gap was narrowed by intense competition between coconut oil and palm kernel oil, reflecting a shift in consumption towards more sustainable and natural alternatives in the European Union. Higher price expectations were influenced by supply constraints from key Asian exporters, particularly the Philippines and Malaysia, who faced reduced production volumes and tightening supplies. Additionally, volatility in the broader vegetable oil market created uncertainty for buyers in Europe.

North America

The crude coconut oil price graph mirrored the trends in the Asian market throughout the last quarter of 2024. Despite logistical problems and supply bottlenecks affecting shipment volumes, imports from Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia remained significant sources of crude coconut oil in the North American region. Demand from the food and beverage sector gained momentum during this period, supporting the upward trajectory of the crude coconut oil price curve.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of crude coconut oil are expected to maintain a similar trend, with a moderate increase in the prices, in the upcoming year influenced by decreasing inventories and rising demand in the global markets.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for Q3 of 2024

Asia

The Asian region witnessed a notable surge in crude coconut oil prices during the third quarter of 2024. Fuelled by gains in the palm oil sector and a narrowing price differential between coconut oil and palm kernel oil, the market experienced a robust upswing after a period of stagnation.

Coconut oil exports from the Philippines soared to a record 160,214 metric tons, a staggering 170% increase compared to the same period last year. In a significant development, the Indian government's decision to hike the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points in September’24 is poised to elevate imported edible oil prices.

Europe

The European crude coconut oil market also trended upwards in the third quarter, driven by a combination of seasonal demand, export activities, and production challenges in key growing regions. However, market analysts noted that high freight costs continue to pose a significant challenge for exporters, with the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) remaining significantly elevated, at 282% above the pre-pandemic average value of 2019.

North America

The North American crude coconut oil market mirrored the price dynamics observed in Asia and Europe. After initial price slowdowns linked to sluggish downstream demand, prices rebounded as consumer interest grew, reflecting the general upward trend in the global coconut oil market. Nevertheless, market participants in North America also grappled with fluctuations stemming from geopolitical tensions and logistics-related hurdles.

Insight Analyst

According to Procurement Resource, as the festive season approaches, the crude coconut oil market in Asia is poised to experience a further significant rise in prices. This upward trajectory is driven by recent increases in import duties and persistent supply constraints from key production regions.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Asia

An upsurge was witnessed in the crude coconut oil prices in the Asian markets during the first half of the year 2024. Over the given period of six months, the crude coconut oil markets inclined in the Asian region. The price growth was a little steady in the first quarter; however, it picked up pace in the second quarter, primarily because the summer season called for higher crude coconut oil demands. The export queries from the international markets were also high, pushing the prices ahead.

In the Philippines, the monthly average prices went from about 1127 USD/MT (EXW) in January '24 to around 1220 USD/MT (EXW) in June '24. As per the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) and the United Coconut Association of the Philippines (UCAP), a slight increase in the country's coconut oil exports and reduced coconut output from inadequate rainfall anchored the coconut oil markets across the globe. Concurrently, in the Indonesian crude coconut oil market, the prices went from approximately 981 USD/MT in January to about 1062 USD/MT in June '24.

Europe

Influenced by the surges in the Asian crude coconut oil markets, the prices were seen wavering upwards in the European markets as well. Since Europe imports most of its coconut and affiliated products from the key producing coastal countries in Asia, the prices also show a close resemblance in trend. During the first quarter of the year, crude coconut oil prices were slightly stable. However, an uptick with the commencement of the second quarter was seen. Around the end of the second quarter, some normalization was seen in crude coconut oil prices as the demand started to stabilize.

North America

The crude coconut oil market trend in North America was no different than its Asian and European counterparts. Prices fluctuated in a similar manner here as well. The earlier slowdown was associated with sluggish downstream demands. However, the prices picked up later on with the rise in consumer demands. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed for crude coconut oil during the first half of 2024.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, following the current incline in Crude Coconut Oil markets, the prices are likely to normalize steadily in the coming months.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

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Asia

The crude coconut oil market initiated the third quarter with an optimistic approach as the consumption rates from the downstream industries showed a consistent incline. As a result, the Indonesian crude coconut oil prices were able to incline from an average of 925 USD/MT (EXW) in July’23 to around 983 USD/MT in December’23. However, a sudden fall in the trend was observed in the consecutive months as the active purchases from the consumer sector declined at a slow pace.

sts and the availability of cheaper alternatives, further caused ripples in the crude coconut oil market. But still, based on the cost of production, the crude coconut oil market closed the year at a positive note of about 980 USD/MT. The Malaysian region was, however, resilient in its approach as the market only faced limited movement, with a slight decline in averages from 1075 USD/MT (CIF) to 1024 USD/MT.

Europe

During the third quarter of 2023, the European crude coconut oil traders registered a significant uptick in the crude coconut oil price trend. The sentiments of crude coconut oil prices escalated due to the sustained approach from domestic consumers.

However, the producers incurred challenges from the raw materials sector as adverse weather conditions, sudden floods, and abrupt rainfall patterns reduced the agricultural output and limited the availability of the material in the market. However, the market winds changed in the fourth quarter due to the frail condition of the global economy along with the excessive number of overseas imports.

North America

A complex interplay of trading sector, demand and production rates of crude coconut oil dictated the crude coconut oil price trend during the third and fourth quarter of 2023.

The heightened demand from the consumer sector during the third quarter and the availability of export margins helped in the rise in crude coconut oil prices. The incline in advents of bulk ordering and the limited influx of raw materials also widened the supply-demand gap, favoring the rise in crude coconut oil price trend. However, the inventories lined up in the fourth quarter, which somehow destabilized the crude coconut oil market fundamentals.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Crude Coconut Oil is expected to drive upwards as the positive consumer demand and scarcity of raw material produce will support the crude coconut oil pricing pattern.
 

Crude Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Crude Coconut Oil is extracted from coconuts that mainly grow in the coastal regions. In the Asian continent, countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are major producers. During H1’23, the prices exhibited rising trend for the majority of the time as the demands from the consumption sector consistently rose.

In Indonesia, the prices rose by about 4% by May’23 and then declined marginally to close the second quarter at about 935 USD/MT(EXW) in June’23. Similarly, in Malaysia, the prices rose by about 7% in the first quarter and subsided by around 6% in the second quarter. Fluctuating within a narrow range, Crude Coconut Oil prices declined by about 6% in the Philippines over the six months, with some upward fluctuations in the middle of the second quarter.

Europe

The European Crude Coconut Oil market saw a consistent incline in prices due to heavy import dependence. In the Netherlands, the prices rose by about 3% by the middle of the second quarter after starting the year at an average monthly spot price of about 2047 USD/MT In January’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the current market behavior of Crude Coconut Oil, further fluctuations in the upcoming months are expected.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Crude Coconut Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.