Crude Palm Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Price Drivers, Historical Prices, Latest News, Market Insights & Supply Demand Analysis

Asia

Asian crude palm oil markets experienced a progressive weakness throughout the fourth quarter, with regional variations in timing and intensity of price movements. Chinese markets displayed initial strength during the opening phase, reaching elevated levels before entering sustained decline as abundant supply from Malaysian and Indonesian origins pressured regional pricing. The prices were about 1294 USD/MT (Spot FD) in October and around 1212 USD/MT in December.

The correction continued through the middle portion as seasonal production increases from Southeast Asian sources created oversupply conditions relative to immediate consumption requirements. Late-quarter developments brought modest recovery from the period's lowest levels, though prices remained below opening-quarter positions. Meanwhile, Indian markets followed a similar downward trajectory, with persistent weakness throughout the entire period as refiners adjusted procurement strategies in response to changing price spreads between tropical oils and competing vegetable oils.

Import demand increased during the latter portion as buyers capitalized on attractive pricing levels, with palm oil purchases rising as refiners reduced soyoil and sunflower oil imports due to unfavourable price differentials. The prices were about 1160 USD/MT (FOB) in October and around 1090 USD/MT in December in the Indian markets.

Europe

European crude palm oil markets followed Asian pricing trends as the quarter progressed, with values declining progressively throughout the period. Supply from Southeast Asian origins remained ample, creating favourable conditions for buyers across food manufacturing and industrial applications. The downward trajectory reflected broader global fundamentals, with production forecasts indicating continued output growth from major producing countries.

Demand from food processing sectors remained steady, while industrial consumption maintained baseline levels without significant variation. Competition from alternative vegetable oils influenced procurement decisions as refiners evaluated relative pricing across different feedstock options, with some buyers adjusting blend ratios in response to changing cost structures.

North America

North American markets followed global pricing weakness, with import values declining through the latter portion of the quarter after earlier period strength. The easing reflected expectations of ample global supply availability from Southeast Asian sources, with refiners and industrial consumers adjusting purchasing strategies accordingly. Food manufacturing, industrial processing, and biodiesel feedstock sectors maintained baseline consumption levels while buyers capitalized on improved pricing conditions compared to earlier in the year.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, crude palm oil prices are expected to face continued pressures in the coming months as production growth in Indonesia and Malaysia persists while seasonal demand patterns remain moderate.