Green ammonia values held broadly stable in Q2 2026 under long-term contracts, while record grey ammonia prices narrowed the premium for renewable supply.
High gas costs and lost Gulf ammonia supply raised conventional production costs, while subsidies for electrolysers helped reduce the cost of green hydrogen feedstock.
Long-term offtake deals and power sector policies in Japan, India and the EU supported demand, though South Korea narrowed support for ammonia co-firing.
Green ammonia continued to trade mainly under long-term fixed contracts in Q2 2026, so its values stayed broadly stable while conventional grey ammonia surged to record highs. The Hormuz blockade cut Gulf ammonia supply in April and May, and India was the country most affected by the loss of Middle East cargoes. This made domestic green supply more strategically important, and new long-term offtake agreements were signed between Indian producers and Japanese buyers, alongside plans for a green ammonia hub at a southern Indian port. As grey prices climbed, the gap between green and conventional ammonia narrowed sharply, improving the economics of renewable supply. In Europe, high natural gas costs and tight North African supply pushed grey ammonia to its highest levels since the conflict began. Support for green production also grew, as the EU’s third hydrogen auction funded projects with 1.1 GW of electrolyser capacity, lowering expected costs for green hydrogen, the main input. However, South Korea removed coal–ammonia co-firing from its clean hydrogen power category after weak participation in earlier auctions, reducing demand there.