Hot‑Rolled Coil Prices Edge Down Overnight
In the overnight market, hot‑rolled coil prices edged down as part of a broader decline in ferrous metals. The fall reflects softer demand and supply dynamics affecting the sector.
Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News, Price Drivers, Historical Prices & Market Insights
Written ByShriya Singh
Hot Rolled Coil Latest Development
Yusco, Tang Eng Raise 304 Hot‑Rolled Prices
Yusco and Tang Eng increased November list prices for 304 hot‑rolled coil, marking a cumulative rise since August. The move was driven by a weaker TWD and a rebound in nickel costs, while demand remained soft, keeping the hike modest.
Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend Q3 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Rolled Coil | USA | FOB | USD 1,323.60/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | India | FOB | USD 644.86/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | China | EWX | USD 496.12/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | Germany | EXW | USD 857.02/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | Canada | EXW | USD 1,345.00/MT | August 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | USA | FOB | USD 1,286.15/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | India | FOB | USD 613.81/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | China | EWX | USD 472.21/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | Germany | EXW | USD 842.61/MT | July 2026 |
| Hot Rolled Coil | Canada | EXW | USD 1,301.00/MT | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Hot Rolled Coil prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
Hot Rolled Coil Price Trend Q3 2026
- Hot rolled coil prices rose in Q3 2026 after a soft July, as reduced supply, import limits and expectations of autumn demand lifted mill offers.
- Raw material costs firmed from August, while low mill inventories and lower domestic output in some regions tightened available coil supply.
- Construction and machinery demand slowed during summer heat and monsoon rains, but buyers restocked ahead of the peak season, supporting purchases later.
In China, the average price of Hot Rolled Coil rose from ~USD 472.21/MT (EXW) in July to ~USD 496.12/MT in August, an increase of ~5.1%. In China, July was soft, as summer heat and rain slowed construction machinery and steel-structure demand and exports stayed weak. Prices rallied in late August on firmer costs, reduced supply and expectations of stronger peak-season demand, before export values held flat into the National Day holiday. India recorded the same gain, with average prices climbing about 5.1% from ~USD 613.81/MT (FOB) to ~USD 644.86/MT. In India, monsoon disruption weakened construction demand in July, but major mills raised prices for September deliveries, citing low inventories and higher input costs. In Germany, prices rose about 1.7%, from ~USD 842.61/MT (EXW) to ~USD 857.02/MT. In Europe, new EU import quotas were the main support, as quotas filled quickly and competitive imports became hard to secure, while domestic output also fell. By late September, mills tried to push offers higher, but buyers resisted because distributors held large stocks and new industrial orders were limited.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, hot rolled coil prices are likely to stay firm on tighter supply and restocking, though weak end-user demand may limit gains.
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- HRC prices were mixed in Q2’26, easing in India and Germany while U.S. mills gained support from tariff-led domestic sourcing.
- Feedstock and supply pressure stayed moderate, as steel output improved in India and North America, but Europe’s crude steel output remained weak.
- Downstream demand was selective, with construction, autos, infrastructure, and manufacturing giving support, while weak industrial buying capped stronger gains.
In India, Hot Rolled Coil prices were ~INR 59.89/kg and ~INR 58.72/kg, respectively, in the first two months of Q2'26, showing a ~2.0% decrease during the period. The decline came despite firm local demand, as higher imports capped domestic price strength. India’s May crude steel output reached 14.21 MMT, up 2.9% year-on-year, while finished steel consumption rose 9.0%, supported by construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In Germany, HRC prices declined from ~EUR 0.72/kg in April to ~EUR 0.71/kg in May, showing a ~1.3% decrease. Europe remained demand-constrained, with April industrial production up only 0.1% month-on-month and capital goods output falling, limiting buying from machinery and fabricated-metal users. Construction gave partial support, but building activity stayed weak. In the United States, HRC prices rose from ~USD 1,146.14/MT in April to ~USD 1,179.40/MT in the following month, witnessing a ~2.9% increase. U.S. mills gained support from stronger domestic sourcing sentiment after the June 1 metal tariff action, which tightened rules around metal-containing products and lowered the domestic-content threshold to 85% for products treated as American steel, aluminum, or copper. Demand from autos, construction supplies, primary metals, and business equipment helped offset higher steel output.
About Hot Rolled Coil
Hot rolled coil is basically a moulded form of steel. It basically includes a mill process which involves rolling of steel at a high temperature (generally at a temperature over 1700° F), which is above the steel's recrystallisation temperature. When steel is above its recrystallisation temperature, Hot rolled coil is formed, and thus, given this shape. It is often utilised in the manufacturing of staircases. Further, it can be embossed with different patterns such as the teardrop pattern to impart excellent anti-slip properties to the product.
Hot Rolled Coil Product Detail
Industrial Uses
Construction, Shipping, Energy, Packaging, Consumer Appliances Industry, Housing, Automotive
Supplier Database
Tata Steel Limited, ArcelorMittal S.A., Nippon Steel Corporation, Jindal Steel & Power Ltd., Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), POSCO
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Hot Rolled Coil Production Process
- Production of Hot Rolled Coil via Hot Rolling Process
In metalworking, rolling is a metal forming method in which metal stock is passed through one or more pairs of rolls to decrease its thickness and to make it uniform. The rolling process is known as hot rolling if the temperature at which the metal is being rolled is above its recrystallisation point.
Thus, during the hot rolling of steel, it is transformed into coil a shaped product upon reaching above its recrystallisation point, thus, resulting in the formation of Hot Rolled Coil.
Frequently Asked Questions
During Q1 2026, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in China showed a mild upward movement, increasing by 0.54% from January to March. As stable manufacturing demand and relatively firm raw material costs supported the market. Demand from machinery, automotive, and construction sectors remained steady, while cautious purchasing activity and adequate mill supply limited stronger gains. Market sentiment was also influenced by Chinese steel production controls, export activity, and developments in iron ore and coking coal markets.
From Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, average HRC prices increased from USD 469.98/MT in Q4 2025 to USD 476.49/MT in Q1 2026, showing a 1.38% rise. The improvement reflected relatively stable downstream steel demand, continued infrastructure and manufacturing activity, and firm steelmaking costs. Raw material markets remained important, with iron ore imports staying elevated and coking coal markets experiencing periodic supply concerns that supported steel production costs.
The hot rolled coil market outlook for 2026 remains cautiously balanced. Demand from manufacturing, automotive, machinery, and infrastructure sectors is expected to provide support, while steel supply will continue to be influenced by Chinese production controls and export trends. Raw material costs, particularly iron ore and coking coal, will remain important pricing drivers. Trade measures such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may also influence international steel flows and competitiveness.
Coking coal and iron ore costs were key factors influencing HRC prices in Q1 2026. Strong freight and logistics charges for importing coking coal increased delivered costs for mills, which in turn supported HRC price stability. The tight integration of feedstock supply with regional mill output reinforced price resilience during the quarter.
China is the world's largest producer and exporter of hot rolled coil and plays a major role in determining global supply and pricing trends. Other important producers include India, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Russia. India, Japan, and South Korea are significant exporters, while Europe and North America remain major consuming regions for flat steel products used in manufacturing, automotive production, construction, and infrastructure projects.
In early 2026, Shougang Jingtang Steel in China resumed operations of its 5.5 million tonnes per year HRC facility after a planned maintenance shutdown. Meanwhile, POSCO announced ramp-up plans for its Gwangyang hot-rolled mill to increase specialty HRC output. These additions and restarts improved regional supply balance and supported consistent market availability.
HRC production relies mainly on coking coal, iron ore, and scrap steel. Coking coal and iron ore prices directly influence steelmaking costs, while scrap affects electric arc furnace operations. When feedstock costs rise, mills pass some of the cost to HRC prices. Conversely, abundant scrap and lower coke prices can ease pricing pressure on finished coils.
Demand from the automotive, appliance, and construction sectors maintained HRC consumption in Q1 2026. Strong order books in construction and machinery reinforced mill operating rates. While some exporters held back to manage inventories, consistent domestic consumption helped keep pricing stable despite global steel market volatility.
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) became more prominent in early 2026. Imported steel products, including HRC, are now subject to carbon cost adjustments. This affected exporters to Europe, particularly from high-carbon steel-producing regions, influencing trade flows, landed costs, and indirectly supporting domestic HRC pricing in source countries.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess hot rolled coil prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, mining activities, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Shriya Singh
Business Insights Analyst
Helping procurement and sourcing teams navigate complex markets through data-driven research, category intelligence, and actionable insights - with a focus on identifying market trends, analyzing supply-side developments, and delivering clear intelligence that supports informed business decisions.
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