- The global HRC market remained largely range-bound during Q1’26, as weak seasonal demand, high inventories, and delayed post-holiday recovery weighed on sentiment early, while cost support and trade-policy optimism improved conditions toward quarter-end.
- Supply remained relatively ample as Chinese mills resumed output after maintenance and inventory accumulated through the Lunar New Year period, though firm iron ore and coking coal costs, thin mill margins, and expectations of production controls helped prevent a deeper correction.
- Demand from automotive, machinery, construction equipment, and manufacturing sectors stayed mostly need-based, with delayed restocking and small-lot buying dominating transactions, while export channels and policy-led replacement demand provided partial support.
China’s hot-rolled coil market reflected a fluctuating but stable trend during Q1’26. Prices averaged around 3,420 RMB/tonne in January and eased slightly to 3,410 RMB/tonne in March, reflecting an approximate 0.31% decline over the quarter. The market remained under pressure early in the quarter as production resumed post-maintenance, inventories built up through the holiday period, and downstream sectors such as machinery, automotive, and steel processing restarted more slowly than expected.
Conditions improved through March as firm iron ore and coking coal prices strengthened the cost floor, and mills resisted sharper discounts amid low profitability. Sentiment was also supported by expectations surrounding China’s “Two New” policy (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins), which is expected to support steel-intensive demand across machinery, vehicles, and appliances. Late-quarter market sentiment was further influenced by the Iran conflict, which raised freight and insurance costs, added uncertainty to steel export flows toward the Gulf, and reinforced cost-side support across the steel value chain. Overall, the market remained stable but lacked strong upward momentum due to still-elevated inventories and only gradual demand recovery.