During Q4’25, hydro energy prices showed a firmer and more volatile trend across key global markets, mainly due to lower reservoir levels and winter demand expectations.
In the Nordic region, specifically in southern Norway, the water levels were reported to be lower than the historical averages due to lower inflows, which limited the rebuilding of hydro reserves in preparation for the peak winter demand period. Since Norway is one of the major sources of power supply to its neighbours, such as the UK and Germany, the tighter conditions in the hydro market helped to support stronger prices in northwest Europe. However, the introduction of the fixed price scheme in Norway helped to ease the pressure on domestic consumers, although this does not affect the exports, and the markets continued to be sensitive to supply issues. Traders were cautious due to the risk of cold weather and low wind output.
In other European countries such as France, hydro reservoir levels were also lower than in preceding years. This contributed to an increase in power market firmness, particularly as issues regarding renewable curtailments and grid balancing continued. In North America, electricity prices increased in certain regions due to higher system and generation costs. Although subsidies mitigated the impact of increased prices on consumers in certain provinces, underlying power costs increased during the quarter.