In the second half of 2025, lead ingot prices in China experienced significant fluctuations driven by a mix of supply, demand, and external market factors. In July, prices initially rose as domestic production resumed after maintenance and secondary lead smelters brought new capacity online. Tight raw material supply, coupled with expectations of a peak consumption season for lead acid batteries, supported the upward trend. However, uncertainties around US tariffs and weak domestic consumption limited price gains, causing some short-term reversals.
In August and September, lead prices remained relatively stable but faced downward pressure from low trading activity and cautious market sentiment. Imported lead ingots became less competitive due to tariffs and higher delivery costs, while domestic inventories began to normalize. By October, LME lead prices had dropped, and this dragged down domestic prices initially. Environmental inspections and production halts in parts of North and Central China later in the month created supply tightness, pushing prices back up.
In November, speculative buying temporarily lifted prices to new highs for the period. Yet, as overseas inventories surged and macroeconomic sentiment turned bearish, both LME and domestic prices pulled back again. Overall, H2’25 showed a seesaw pattern where supply constraints, production adjustments, and tariff concerns caused repeated short-term rises and falls in lead ingot prices.