LLDPE Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of LLDPE in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

LLDPE Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

In the Asian polymer market, LLDPE prices remained steady due to weak upstream crude prices and tepid downstream demand in the first quarter of 2024. The producers faced resistance from buyers when attempting to raise prices, as demand remained sluggish, and the trading sector held an excess of inventories. However, plant maintenance activities in China initially impacted LLDPE production capacity due to the onset of Chinese New Year and spring festivities in the region.

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In China, the LLDPE price trend experienced an oscillating trend during the first quarter of 2024 as the inventories dried up quickly while the production was slow, creating a disbalance between supply and demand sectors of the market. The purchasing sentiments, however, improved only in the later stages of the quarter with the rebound of the industrial sector post-Chinese New Year holiday season.

Further, the escalating costs of upstream crude oil and naphtha also supported the uptrend in the market. The favorable outlook of the downstream construction and automotive industries further propelled the market of LLLDPE in an upward direction.

Disturbances in the supply chains and on crucial sea routes further complicated the trading practices of the Asian countries, supporting an uptick in the prices of LLDPE. In India, LLDPE prices were stable, with domestic producers offering incentives to stimulate purchases amidst limited trading activity. Therefore, the prices showcased minimal movement as they rose from an average of 1171 USD/MT in January to 1182 USD/MT in March’24.

Europe

In the European countries, during the first quarter of 2024, the LLDPE price trend experienced a notable price surge driven by supply shortages and increased market demand. As a result of suitable market conditions, the prices inclined from approximately 1225 USD/MT (FOB, NWE) to 1382 USD/MT.

Delays in cargo arrivals from the Middle East and limited material quantities from the US intensified the constrained supplies, leading to the above stated visible uptick in the LLDPE price trend. Additionally, reduced output rates and regional shutdowns further compounded these challenges. Despite stable overall demand, subdued activity in end-user industries like construction contributed to fluctuations in the market during the middle of the first quarter. However, limited import alternatives and reduced allocations prompted suppliers to prioritize margin expansion.

North America

During the initial phase of Q1, LLDPE prices surged at a quicker pace in the United States due to supply shortages and heightened demand. The increased demand from sectors like construction and packaging drove prices higher in the US region during the aforementioned period.

The escalating costs of feedstocks like ethylene, naphtha, and crude oil further elevated production expenses, intensifying price pressure. Disruptions in crucial shipping routes, such as the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, added to market instability. The tightening of domestic supplies and exponentially growing freight charges further supported the price increase of LLDPE.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of LLDPE is expected to be driven by the rising cost of ethylene, naphtha, and crude oil along with improving appetite of the downstream industries in the forthcoming quarters.

LLDPE Price Trend for October to December 2023

Asia

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Asia's Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) price trend experienced a mixed trend. The market initially faced challenges due to disruptions in the supply chain, including shipping backlogs and geopolitical tensions. However, towards the end of the quarter, demand from downstream sectors like packaging and construction showed signs of improvement.

Feedstock prices, such as Ethylene and Crude oil, fluctuated, impacting LLDPE prices. Overall, the Asian LLDPE market navigated through a period of volatility with periods of both increase and decrease in prices, reflecting the complex interplay of regional supply-demand dynamics and global economic factors.

Europe

In Europe, the LLDPE price trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 continued to grapple with high inflation and fluctuating raw material prices, leading to an overall bearish sentiment. The demand remained subdued across key downstream sectors, and manufacturers faced cost pressures due to the high prices of feedstock Ethylene and Crude oil. The European LLDPE market also contended with supply chain disruptions, including challenges in the Red Sea region. These factors collectively led to a decrease in LLDPE prices, although there were occasional upticks due to short-term demand fluctuations.

North America

The North American LLDPE price trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 saw a depreciation in prices, largely due to weak global demand and an oversupply situation. The market was influenced by lower feedstock Ethylene and Naphtha costs and was further impacted by supply chain disruptions, including issues in the Panama Canal and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Despite a stable start to the quarter, the demand from downstream sectors like packaging and construction waned, leading to a reduction in LLDPE prices. Export demand also remained unsteady, contributing to the overall downward pricing trend in the region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the global price trend for LLDPE is anticipated to witness a miscellaneous trend and a net downward trend in the initial months of 2024. The prices might see optimism in terms of downstream demand dynamics.

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) exhibited variations in the price trend during the third quarter of the year 2023. The first half of the quarter was observed to be wavering on the lower side of the price curve, while the second half of the quarter witnessed a significant rise in the linear low density polyethylene price graph.

The quarter began with overflowing inventories with limited sales queries from the consumers. However, as time progressed, the inventories started depleting gradually, and because of the cold customer response, the suppliers didn’t make bulk purchases to prevent revenue losses. But, as the middle of the quarter passed, the demand started rising, especially from the sheets, lining, flooring, etc. industries. This shifted the market momentum in the suppliers’ favour as the price trend gradually started picking up. Eventually, the third quarter concluded on a higher note for the Asian linear low density polyethylene market.

Europe

The European linear low density polyethylene industry too followed the Asia market as the prices were mostly noted to be on the lower side for the first couple of months and then rode high at the end of the quarter. The gap between the supply and demand dynamics gradually shortened as time passed, which shifted the LLDPE price graph upwards. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

North America

The North American linear low density polyethylene market struggled more compared to the other major global markets as here, the prices remained low swinging for the majority of the discussed period. Some minor upward fluctuations were seen during the mid-quarter, but a consistently tepid demand trajectory kept the prices dull throughout. Overall, wavering market dynamics were witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Linear Low Density Polyethylene market is likely to continue behaving in a similar fluctuating manner going forward as well. The demands from consuming sectors will continue to drive the market sentiments.

LLDPE Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

LLDPE prices witnessed a very mixed price trend in H1 2023. Given the poor offtakes and overflowing inventories, the LLDPE prices in the Asian domestic market fell. This declining trajectory continued for most parts of H1’23, with prices averaging around 8014 RMB/MT towards the end of May’23. However, the pricing started inclining steadily during June as the market sentiments turned positive. A hit of fresh momentum and demand from the downstream packaging sector caused the LLDPE prices to rise, averaging 8035 RMB/MT towards the end of June’23.

Europe

The European market recorded an oscillating trend in LLDPE prices in the first half of 2023. The prices inclined a bit during the first quarter due to market uncertainties. However, the LLDPE prices witnessed a sharp decline in the second quarter.

Due to trade normalization, the demand dynamics thawed the market sentiments a little, but low consumer activity in related sectors plummeted the offtakes further, thereby dipping the prices further. The cheap imports from the Asian market saturated the already subdued Europe, pushing prices downwards.

North America

The LLPDE prices witnessed a fluctuating pattern in the US domestic market. Some momentary peaks were observed. However, the prices kept low, swinging for most of H1’23. This downward trajectory was attributed to low production costs and hampered demands. After two major US banks failed in the last months, consumer confidence in the market dwindled, hampering the purchasing momentum and, thus, the pricing fundamentals.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for LLDPE will likely oscillate in the coming months unless a major shift in demand dynamics is seen. The rising speculations of a global recession amid contracting purchasing power will negatively impact the market sentiments.

LLDPE Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) price trend remained mixed throughout the second half of the year 2022. Initially, prices drowned because of reduced offtakes as the restrictions in Chinese markets hindered daily purchasing activities. After the lockdown was reversed at the beginning of Q4 economic activities resumed and the price trend showed some positive turns, after some tribulations, LLDPE closed the year 2022 on a higher note with upward trend.

Europe

The heightened inflation compromised the purchasing power of European customers a lot. Economic activities got lowered and slowed. Because of the dampened demand the LLDPE suppliers cut down on getting more products for the inventories. As upstream costs too had reduced for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene, the price trend mostly dwelled on the lower end for most of the second half of 2022. It was only in the last two months of the year that prices picked up a little pace, because of emptied inventories and a little rise in demand.

North America

The LLDPE market in North America remained sluggish in H2 2022. Feedstock ethylene costs were reduced throughout the period, affecting the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene prices in the same manner. Reduced upstream costs pushed the market down; on the other hand, dampened demands too pushed the market in the same direction. Overall, LLDPE price trend observed a lower inclination throughout the second half of the year 2022.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, LLDPE is expected to have a mixed price pattern in the coming months. The rebounding end-consumer demand and erratic upstream costs are going to be the determining factors.

LLDPE Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

Due to supply shortages brought on by the Chinese government's strict COVID-19 protocols, which forced a significant amount of production units to shut down and delayed container transit into and out of crucial container terminals like Ningbo and Shanghai, prices for LLDPE in China increased. Manufacturers like SABIC, RIL, and ONGC Petro additions Ltd. Raised their prices in the latter half of January. RIL further increased the contracts by 9500 INR/MT in February.

The price trend for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) fluctuated in the Asia-Pacific region during the second quarter of 2022.LLDPE prices rose in China in April before falling in May and picking up again in June. LLDPE Film Extrusion Grade's market value at FOB Shanghai went from 1410 USD/MT in May to 1440 USD/MT in June 2022.

Europe

The disruption of natural gas supplies during the first part of the quarter put a tremendous amount of pressure on European LLDPE production during the quarter ending in March.

The average price for standard linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) film in northwest Europe averaged roughly 2000 Euro/MT. The constant increase in oil prices and robust downstream demand from the packaging and film industries were two major drivers of LLDPE price growth in the second quarter. As a result, the cost of LLDPE Film FD Hamburg constructed rose from USD 1870/MT in April to USD 1925/MT in June, a 2.9% increase.

North America

The first quarter of 2022 saw a supply shock in the feedstock ethylene market (required for the production of linear low-density polyethylene )as the largest refinery in the area at ExxonMobil's Baytown facility in Texas caught fire in the final week of December 2021. By the second week of February, demand had significantly increased, prompting large domestic producers including ExxonMobil, Lyondell Basel, and Dow Chemicals to plan a cost-push of 0.07 USD/lb.

During the second quarter of 2022, LLDPE prices displayed conflicting feelings, supported by shifting supply and demand dynamics. LLDPE's market value started to incline in April, and from then until June, the pricing pattern was stable to slightly falling. LLDPE Film Butene-based Grade FOB (Spot) Nevada's assessed value was 2015 USD/MT in April before declining to 2009 USD/MT in June.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of LLDPE are anticipated to slump significantly. The major reason behind the crashing prices would be the debilitating prices of Ethylene and the doomed costs of upstream processes, where LLDPE gets a substantial launchpad to keep the prices affirmed. Moreover, the end-user industry is expected to ditch the LLDPE prices amidst copious supplies and bearish sentiments.

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