LLDPE Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of LLDPE in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

LLDPE Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

LLDPE prices witnessed a very mixed price trend in H1 2023. Given the poor offtakes and overflowing inventories, the LLDPE prices in the Asian domestic market fell. This declining trajectory continued for most parts of H1’23, with prices averaging around 8014 RMB/MT towards the end of May’23. However, the pricing started inclining steadily during June as the market sentiments turned positive. A hit of fresh momentum and demand from the downstream packaging sector caused the LLDPE prices to rise, averaging 8035 RMB/MT towards the end of June’23.

Europe

The European market recorded an oscillating trend in LLDPE prices in the first half of 2023. The prices inclined a bit during the first quarter due to market uncertainties. However, the LLDPE prices witnessed a sharp decline in the second quarter. Due to trade normalization, the demand dynamics thawed the market sentiments a little, but low consumer activity in related sectors plummeted the offtakes further, thereby dipping the prices further. The cheap imports from the Asian market saturated the already subdued Europe, pushing prices downwards.

North America

The LLPDE prices witnessed a fluctuating pattern in the US domestic market. Some momentary peaks were observed. However, the prices kept low, swinging for most of H1’23. This downward trajectory was attributed to low production costs and hampered demands. After two major US banks failed in the last months, consumer confidence in the market dwindled, hampering the purchasing momentum and, thus, the pricing fundamentals.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for LLDPE will likely oscillate in the coming months unless a major shift in demand dynamics is seen. The rising speculations of a global recession amid contracting purchasing power will negatively impact the market sentiments.

LLDPE Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) price trends remained mixed throughout the second half of the year 2022. Initially, prices drowned because of reduced offtakes as the restrictions in Chinese markets hindered daily purchasing activities. After the lockdown was reversed at the beginning of Q4 economic activities resumed and the price trends showed some positive turns, after some tribulations, LLDPE closed the year 2022 on a higher note with upward trends.

Europe

The heightened inflation compromised the purchasing power of European customers a lot. Economic activities got lowered and slowed. Because of the dampened demand the LLDPE suppliers cut down on getting more products for the inventories. As upstream costs too had reduced for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene, the price trends mostly dwelled on the lower end for most of the second half of 2022. It was only in the last two months of the year that prices picked up a little pace, because of emptied inventories and a little rise in demand.

North America

The LLDPE market in North America remained sluggish in H2 2022. Feedstock ethylene costs were reduced throughout the period, affecting the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene prices in the same manner. Reduced upstream costs pushed the market down; on the other hand, dampened demands too pushed the market in the same direction. Overall, LLDPE price trends observed a lower inclination throughout the second half of the year 2022.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, LLDPE is expected to have a mixed price pattern in the coming months. The rebounding end-consumer demand and erratic upstream costs are going to be the determining factors.

LLDPE Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

Due to supply shortages brought on by the Chinese government's strict COVID-19 protocols, which forced a significant amount of production units to shut down and delayed container transit into and out of crucial container terminals like Ningbo and Shanghai, prices for LLDPE in China increased. Manufacturers like SABIC, RIL, and ONGC Petro additions Ltd. Raised their prices in the latter half of January. RIL further increased the contracts by 9500 INR/MT in February.

The price trends for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) fluctuated in the Asia-Pacific region during the second quarter of 2022.LLDPE prices rose in China in April before falling in May and picking up again in June. LLDPE Film Extrusion Grade's market value at FOB Shanghai went from 1410 USD/MT in May to 1440 USD/MT in June 2022.

Europe

The disruption of natural gas supplies during the first part of the quarter put a tremendous amount of pressure on European LLDPE production during the quarter ending in March.

The average price for standard linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) film in northwest Europe averaged roughly 2000 Euro/MT. The constant increase in oil prices and robust downstream demand from the packaging and film industries were two major drivers of LLDPE price growth in the second quarter. As a result, the cost of LLDPE Film FD Hamburg constructed rose from USD 1870/MT in April to USD 1925/MT in June, a 2.9% increase.

North America

The first quarter of 2022 saw a supply shock in the feedstock ethylene market (required for the production of linear low-density polyethylene )as the largest refinery in the area at ExxonMobil's Baytown facility in Texas caught fire in the final week of December 2021. By the second week of February, demand had significantly increased, prompting large domestic producers including ExxonMobil, Lyondell Basel, and Dow Chemicals to plan a cost-push of 0.07 USD/lb.

During the second quarter of 2022, LLDPE prices displayed conflicting feelings, supported by shifting supply and demand dynamics. LLDPE's market value started to incline in April, and from then until June, the pricing pattern was stable to slightly falling. LLDPE Film Butene-based Grade FOB (Spot) Nevada's assessed value was 2015 USD/MT in April before declining to 2009 USD/MT in June.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of LLDPE are anticipated to slump significantly. The major reason behind the crashing prices would be the debilitating prices of Ethylene and the doomed costs of upstream processes, where LLDPE gets a substantial launchpad to keep the prices affirmed. Moreover, the end-user industry is expected to ditch the LLDPE prices amidst copious supplies and bearish sentiments.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of LLDPE. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.