Nickel drops amid dollar strength
Nickel prices slipped on October 12 as a strengthening US dollar weighed on the market, pressuring spot and futures quotes. The move reflects broader macro‑driven weakness rather than any supply‑side change.
Nickel Price Trend Analysis 2026: Price Drivers, Market Insights, Historical Prices, Supply Demand Analysis & Latest News
Written ByShriya Singh
Nickel Latest Development
Indonesian NPI Loses European Market Access
Indonesia's nickel pig iron has been excluded from the European market as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism enters its definitive phase in 2026. Indonesian NPI's heavy reliance on coal-fired captive power results in high carbon emissions, eroding its cost competitiveness as carbon costs rise under the new rules. The loss of a key export market is expected to redirect Indonesian NPI supply to other regions, softening prices in alternative markets and pressuring producers to reduce emissions or face further market exclusion.
Nickel Price Trend Q3 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickel | China | FOB | USD 19,232.55/MT | August 2026 |
| Nickel | India | CIF | USD 19,323.34/MT | August 2026 |
| Nickel | USA | CIF | USD 19,388.17/MT | August 2026 |
| Nickel | Germany | CIF | USD 19,346.14/MT | August 2026 |
| Nickel | Australia | CIF | USD 19,327.22/MT | August 2026 |
| Nickel | China | FOB | USD 19,131.22/MT | July 2026 |
| Nickel | India | CIF | USD 19,238.03/MT | July 2026 |
| Nickel | USA | CIF | USD 19,318.71/MT | July 2026 |
| Nickel | Germany | CIF | USD 19,264.85/MT | July 2026 |
| Nickel | Australia | CIF | USD 19,229.68/MT | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Nickel prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
Nickel Price Trend Q2 2026
- Nickel prices rose in Q2’26 as Indonesian ore controls, sulphur disruption, and battery-grade feedstock tightness lifted costs, before late-Q2 sentiment weakened.
- Feedstock pressure came from nickel ore, nickel pig iron, mixed hydroxide precipitate, sulphur, and higher operating costs across Indonesian processing chains.
- Downstream demand remained uneven, with stainless-steel cautious and battery demand capped by lithium iron phosphate adoption despite selective restocking.
Asia
In China, the prices of Nickel were ~RMB 139.89/kg and ~RMB 145.15/kg, respectively, in the first two months of the second quarter of 2026. The rise was driven by Indonesian ore restrictions, stronger nickel pig iron costs, and sulphur-linked pressure on high-pressure acid leach operations. Indonesia’s nickel ore quota was reduced to nearly 260-270 million wet tons, below smelter requirements, while sulphur disruption forced some mixed hydroxide precipitate plants to cut output. However, the rally weakened in late Q2 as quota-expansion rumours and high refined nickel inventories reduced shortage fears. Stainless mills kept purchases need-based, and lithium iron phosphate’s dominance in battery chemistry limited nickel demand growth.
Europe
In Germany, the prices of Nickel were ~EUR 17.58/kg in April and ~EUR 18.48/kg in May, showing a ~5.1% increase. European nickel costs followed the global rally, but weak stainless steel consumption limited full pass-through. Automotive and manufacturing demand stayed subdued, and steel-using sector output was expected to grow only modestly in 2026. The key policy support came from the European Commission’s steel decision, approving an annual tariff-free steel import quota of 18.3 million tons and a 50% duty on volumes above the quota from July 1, 2026. This helped European stainless mills, but demand remained cautious.
North America
In the United States, the prices of Nickel were ~USD 20,575.69/MT in April and ~USD 21,570.74/MT in the following month, showing a ~4.8% increase. U.S. prices were supported by the early LME-linked rally and trade-policy protection for domestic steel. The 50% tariff on imported steel helped local producers defend pricing, but stainless steel demand was still soft. Battery demand also gave limited support, as U.S. EV battery deployment remained much smaller than China’s.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, nickel prices may stay range-bound. Indonesian ore policy, sulphur supply, and stainless-steel buying will drive direction, while high inventories may cap sharp gains.
Related Report
Need Latest Nickel Prices?
Get real-time price assessments, periodic trends, forecasts and price driver insights across key global markets.
Our Clients
Procurement Resource Database
Turn price intelligence into action with the Procurement Resource Database. Log in or subscribe to unlock live price trends, historical charts, supplier databases, cost curves, and analyst-backed insights across chemicals, agriculture, energy, packaging, and more. Use these tools to benchmark your contracts, plan budgets with confidence, and stay ahead of market moves on every product you buy.
0
+Products
0
+Regions
0
+Subscriptions
- Global nickel prices showed a mixed but softer trend in Q1 2026, as early supply concerns supported the market, but weaker demand and high inventories pulled prices lower by March.
- Cost support remained present because global mine production was still sizeable at about 3.7 million tonnes in 2025, while Indonesian quota controls and output risks continued to influence supply expectations.
- Downstream demand stayed uneven, with stainless steel remaining the main demand base, while battery demand provided only limited support.
Asia
In Asia, nickel prices rose in January on strong market sentiment and concerns over tighter Indonesian ore availability, then weakened by March as the market shifted back to actual demand conditions. In China, prices were about RMB 146.01/kg in January and around RMB 139.01/kg in March, down 3.67% over the period. Demand for stainless steel remained weak during the traditional off-season, though steel mill activity improved in March. Battery-related demand was present but not strong enough to offset softer stainless steel consumption. In India, prices also eased from INR 1,645.78/kg in January to INR 1,622.25/kg in March, a decline of 3.73%, following the same pattern of early supply-driven support and later demand-led correction.
Europe
In Europe, nickel prices also softened during Q1 2026. Prices moved from EUR 15.29/kg in January to EUR 14.93/kg in March, down 3.68%. The decline was mainly linked to weak downstream consumption and cautious buying, despite continued supply-side concern tied to Indonesia’s production controls and reduced intermediate output expectations. Market support from stainless steel and battery sectors remained limited, keeping buyers focused on essential purchases.
North America
In North America, nickel prices followed the broader global trend, with early support from supply concerns and macro sentiment, followed by softer movement as demand failed to strengthen materially. Stainless steel demand remained the main driver, but weak broader industrial buying limited upside.
About Nickel
Nickel is known to be an abundant element found in nature. In appearance, pure Nickel is a silvery-white metal. It is sometimes combined with other metals also, like iron, copper, chromium, or zinc, to form alloys. It is one of the members of transition metals and is hard and ductile. Nickel alloys are further utilised to make coins, jewellery, or items like the valves and heat exchangers.
Nickel Product Detail
Chemical Formula
Ni
Molecular Weight
58.693 g/mol
Industrial Uses
Stainless Steel, Alloys, Coatings, Batteries, Electroplating, Kitchen wares, Batteries, Medical equipment, Automotive, Construction, Power generation
Synonyms
7440-02-0, Raney alloy
Supplier Database
Umicore N.V, American Elements, Vale S.A., MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, Jinchuan Group International Resources Co. Ltd, Glencore plc, PT Timah (Persero) Tbk
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Nickel Production Process
- Production of Nickel via Extractive Metallurgical Process
Nickel is extracted from the ores of Nickel Sulphides. This extraction process is carried out using traditional roasting. The process includes steps like crushing and grinding of the sulphide ore, which is followed by roasting and smelting. The concentrate is further smelted in the Bessemer converter to obtain a mixture called matte. Then, the resulting mixture is electrolytically or chemically refined to separate impurities (other metals) and finally obtain Nickel.
Frequently Asked Questions
During Q1 2026, nickel prices declined from January to March across key regions despite remaining above Q4 2025 averages. In China, India, and Europe, prices softened by around 3–4% during the quarter. The decline reflected profit-taking after the early-year rally, elevated exchange inventories, weak stainless-steel demand, and continued concerns over global oversupply. However, Indonesian mining quota restrictions and supply uncertainty prevented a steeper correction.
Quarter-on-quarter, nickel prices increased across all tracked regions in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025. In China, nickel prices recorded a ~19.4% increase, while in India they rose by ~16.7% and in Europe by ~16.4%. The Q-o-Q increase shows that the average Q1 price level was higher than the previous quarter despite the January-to-March decline.
The nickel outlook for 2026 remains mixed, with prices supported by Indonesian policy uncertainty, battery-sector demand, and stainless-steel consumption, but pressured by high inventories and supply growth. Indonesia’s expanding processing capacity may add supply, while potential quota controls could limit ore availability. Battery-grade nickel demand may improve gradually, but oversupply risks remain important.
The main factors affecting nickel prices in Q1 2026 were Indonesian supply uncertainty, elevated inventories, and weak stainless-steel demand. Concerns over Indonesia’s reduced mining quotas supported prices early in the quarter, while high exchange stocks, cautious stainless-steel procurement, and persistent oversupply concerns weighed on sentiment and contributed to price declines from January to March.
Major nickel markets include Indonesia, China, India, Europe, the Philippines, Russia, Canada, Australia, New Caledonia, and Brazil. Indonesia dominates mine supply and processing growth, while China leads stainless steel and battery-material consumption. Key companies include Tsingshan, Nornickel, Vale, Glencore, BHP, Eramet, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Jinchuan Group, CNGR, Huayou Cobalt, and PT Vale Indonesia.
A major recent development was the full commissioning of CNGR’s Zhongtsing New Energy Phase II project at Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park in January 2026. The startup of Line 6 completed the project and lifted total capacity to 60,000 tonnes per year of contained nickel. The facility strengthens Indonesia’s downstream nickel-processing sector and expands feedstock availability for battery-material production.
Nickel is mainly produced from laterite ores and sulfide ores. The value chain includes mining, beneficiation, smelting, converting, high-pressure acid leaching, refining, nickel matte or mixed hydroxide precipitate production, cathode or briquette production, alloying, and downstream use. Nickel is then consumed in stainless steel, batteries, superalloys, electroplating, foundry alloys, catalysts, and specialty chemical applications.
USGS estimated world nickel mine production at 3.7 million tonnes in 2025, compared with 3.53 million tonnes in 2024. Indonesia led global output with about 2.2 million tonnes, followed by the Philippines at 390,000 tonnes, New Caledonia at 210,000 tonnes, Russia at 210,000 tonnes, Canada at 160,000 tonnes, and Australia at 130,000 tonnes. Global reserves were estimated at more than 130.0 million tonnes.
A key 2026 policy development affecting nickel was Indonesia’s decision to reduce nickel ore production quotas to approximately 260–270 million tonnes, down from around 379 million tonnes in 2025. Since Indonesia accounts for roughly 60–65% of global nickel supply, the policy significantly influenced global supply expectations, stainless-steel raw-material planning, battery-material availability, and nickel price volatility.
Nickel is traded through spot contracts, long-term offtake agreements, index-linked supply contracts, futures, options, and tolling arrangements. Physical contracts are commonly priced against LME nickel benchmarks with location, form, and quality premiums or discounts. LME nickel futures are physically deliverable contracts based on primary nickel with minimum 99.8% purity and a contract size of 6 metric tonnes. Battery-sector transactions may also reference nickel sulfate, nickel matte, or mixed hydroxide precipitate pricing formulas.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess nickel prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, mining activities, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Shriya Singh
Business Insights Analyst
Helping procurement and sourcing teams navigate complex markets through data-driven research, category intelligence, and actionable insights - with a focus on identifying market trends, analyzing supply-side developments, and delivering clear intelligence that supports informed business decisions.
Schedule A Demo
Experience how Procurement Resource transforms raw material price data into clear, decision ready intelligence. Optimise your performance with reliable, expert market data and analysis. Schedule your demo today to experience a live walk-through where our experts will showcase interactive price charts, forecasted prices, and insights driving the prices for your key commodities, tailored to your workflows. Contact us now!
Our Team will be happy to assist you
We are just a text away
Still Need Help?
Other Related Reports
Syngas Production from Wood
This study presents the costs associated with Syngas production from wood chips via a typical gasification process. Gasification occurs in a gasifier.
Nickel Powder Manufacturing Plant Project Report 2026: Cost Analysis, ROI, and Feasibility Insights
Nickel Powder Manufacturing Plant Project Report thoroughly focuses on every detail that encompasses the cost of manufacturing. Our extensive cost model meticulously covers breaking down expenses around raw materials, labour, technology, and manufacturing expenses. This enables precise cost structure optimization and helps in identifying effective strategies to reduce the overall cash cost of manufacturing.
Unlock full access to Procurement Resource's price databases, interactive charts, and short-term forecasts for thousands of commodities. Elevate your sourcing decisions by comparing prices across regions, downloading historical data, and layering in analyst-backed insights, all with our flexible plans that scale as your portfolio grows.
Still have any Questions
Contact Us
Price Trend Dashboard - What's Included
Price trends across a diverse portfolio of categories and products, spanning board to niche chemicals
Coverage extendable to grade-specific chemicals based on procurement requirements
Regular price tracking supported by robust historical datasets
News, policy updates, and key market drivers impacting price movements
Short-term and long-term price outlooks and forecasts
Supply–demand dynamics and capacity-driven market analysis
Related News
View All.webp&w=1080&q=75)
Why Procurement Database
Commodity Market Intelligence
Track prices, market movements, supply-demand dynamics, and industry developments across hundreds of commodities through a centralized intelligence platform built for informed procurement decisions.
Price Forecasts & Market Outlooks
Understand market fluctuations using analyst-backed forecasts, historical pricing patterns, and evolving industry trends to strengthen sourcing strategies and budget planning.
Cost & Procurement Optimization
Leverage cost models, pricing benchmarks, and procurement insights to evaluate purchasing opportunities, improve negotiations, and enhance operational efficiency.
Global & Regional Market Insights
Access region-specific price trends, trade activities, capacity changes, and supply chain developments influencing commodity markets worldwide.
1/4