Olive Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Market Insights, Supply Demand Analysis, Historical Prices, Latest News & Price Drivers

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Written ByPragati Agarwal

Olive Oil Latest Development

Spain Olive Oil Costs Outrun Prices

A 2026 AEMO study finds production costs for Spanish olive oil have risen sharply since 2020, pushing over three-quarters of olive groves into loss-making territory as costs now exceed producer prices for most grove types. Only super-intensive irrigated groves remain profitable at current price levels, while traditional rainfed and mechanisation-limited groves face the widest cost-price gaps, threatening the long-term viability of conventional olive-growing models.

Spanish Olive Oil Margins Under Pressure

Spanish olive oil producers face squeezed margins as production costs have risen sharply in recent years while farm-gate prices remain subdued. July exports ran well above the five-year average and stocks fell significantly, indicating tight supply, but growers' weak bargaining position limits price pass-through. Calls for tighter EU import controls could further restrict supply availability.

Olive Oil Price Trend Q3 2026

Product Region Incoterm Basis Price Last Updated Month
Olive Oil Italy FOB USD 3,812.63/MT August 2026
Olive Oil USA FOB USD 5,876.01/MT August 2026
Olive Oil Spain FOB USD 3,812.63/MT August 2026
Olive Oil Greece FOB USD 3,360.67/MT August 2026
Olive Oil Tunisia FOB USD 3,060.28/MT August 2026
Olive Oil Italy FOB USD 3,996.64/MT July 2026
Olive Oil USA FOB USD 6,185.27/MT July 2026
Olive Oil Spain FOB USD 3,574.14/MT July 2026
Olive Oil Greece FOB USD 3,197.31/MT July 2026
Olive Oil Tunisia FOB USD 3,060.28/MT July 2026

Stay updated with the latest Olive Oil prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis

Olive Oil Price Trend Q3 2026

  • Olive oil prices stayed low in Q3 2026, weakening through mid-August on large stocks before firming slightly as drought cut next season’s crop outlook.
  • Heat and dry weather in Spain lowered expectations for the 2026/27 harvest, while ample carry-over stocks from a strong previous crop kept supply comfortable.
  • Retail and food service buying stayed slow in key markets, and North American import demand weakened, even as lower prices encouraged purchases elsewhere.

In Spain, the average price of Olive Oil rose from ~USD 3,574.14/MT (FOB) in July to ~USD 3,812.63/MT in August, an increase of ~6.7%. Italy moved the other way, easing about 4.6% from ~USD 3,996.64/MT (FOB) to ~USD 3,812.63/MT. Spanish origin prices weakened through July into mid-August, as the Agriculture Ministry reported stocks of 569,287 tonnes in July, well above a year earlier, and sales from mills slowed. From late August, prices firmed as heat and drought cut estimates for Spain’s 2026/27 crop to 1.4–1.5 million tonnes, and stocks fell further. Italian values stayed far below last year, as Spain’s production recovery pulled regional prices down. In the USA, prices fell about 5.0%, from ~USD 6,185.27/MT (FOB) to ~USD 5,876.01/MT. North American import costs eased with lower Mediterranean origin prices, and imports into the US and Canada declined while most other markets bought more. Strongly growing Tunisian supply added further competition.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, olive oil prices may find firmer footing as smaller crop expectations reduce supply, though large existing stocks and slow sales could keep any recovery gradual.

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  • Olive oil prices softened during Q2 2026 as Mediterranean supply conditions improved following earlier tightness.
  • Improved olive harvest expectations increased feedstock availability, easing production cost pressures and limiting further price increases.
  • Demand remained steady across food, retail, and export markets, while premium-origin olive oils continued to attract stronger buyer interest.

In Q2 2026, olive oil prices across European markets moved towards stabilization as improving Mediterranean supply conditions eased earlier cost concerns. Spain continued to dominate the regional market, with olive oil prices receiving support from better production availability and increased selling activity among producers. Spanish olive oil production through March 2026 reached approximately 1.28 million tonnes, significantly exceeding output levels recorded during previous low-production seasons. Italy maintained its strong market position amid improved domestic availability, although sourcing costs and competitive imports from Tunisia continued to influence market dynamics. Export demand remained supportive, with markets such as China and Brazil contributing to slightly higher trade flows across standard grades. Weather conditions remained a key factor towards the end of the quarter, as improved rainfall in Spain strengthened expectations for the upcoming crop. However, flowering conditions continued to require monitoring, as their impact on future harvest volumes could influence supply availability and price movements in the coming months.

About Olive Oil

Olive Oil is a liquid fat obtained from olives. With the melting point -6°C, boiling point 700°C and smoke point 190-215°C, 175°C, and 210°C for extra virgin, virgin, and refined olive oil, respectively, it is the most common vegetable oil.

People who consume an olive oil rich diet appear to have a higher life expectancy along with lower chances of dying from cardiovascular disease. Fresh olive oil has a pungent, fruity smell, while rancid olive oil has little smell or may smell like crayons or stale peanuts. It has a bitter taste with no fruitiness.

Olive Oil Product Detail

CAS Number
8001-25-0
Industrial Uses

Cooking, Frying food , Cosmetics, Pharmaceuticals, Soaps, Traditional oil lamps, Skin care

Synonyms

Olea europaea l. fruit oil

Supplier Database

Sovena Group, Mosselman S.A, Cargill, Incorporated, Archer Daniels Midland Company (Oilio®)

Regional Coverage

Asia Pacific

China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand

Europe

Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece

North America

United States and Canada

Latin America

Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru

Africa

South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco

CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)

Supplier Database AvailabilityYes

Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer

Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery

Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.

Olive Oil Production Processes

  • Production of Olive Oil via Extraction Process

Olive Oil is produced through the extraction of oil present in olive drupes. The oil is produced in the mesocarp cells, and stored in a specific kind of vacuole called a lipo vacuole. The extraction process involves separation of oil from other fruit contents, that is, vegetative extract liquid and solid material. This separation can be attained by physical means alone, that is, oil and water do not mix.

Frequently Asked Questions

In Q1 2026, olive oil prices declined broadly across key global markets. In Italy, prices showed a 12.69% decrease from January to March, in the USA they witnessed a 13.67% decline, in Spain a 2.83% drop, in Greece a 12.09% fall, and in Tunisia a 28.58% decrease. These movements reflected supply improvements from the recent larger harvest and cautious buying by major consumers.
Global olive oil production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at around 3.4 million tonnes, remaining above recent historical averages despite a slight decline from the previous season. Consumption is expected to recover gradually as prices ease from earlier highs, while improved Mediterranean supply should help maintain balanced market conditions. Barring major weather disruptions, olive oil prices are expected to remain relatively stable through 2026 with normal regional fluctuations.
Olive oil prices during Q1 2026 were influenced by the balance between larger-than-expected harvest volumes and slower end-user buying after previous high price levels. Mediterranean supply improvements helped ease tight inventories, while logistic costs and currency movements shaped trading flows. Competitive imports from North Africa also pressured some regional prices, especially in Italy where Tunisian shipments increased.
Leading olive oil producers include Spain, Italy, Greece, Tunisia, Turkey, Portugal, and Morocco. Spain accounts for a large share of global supply, followed by Italy and Greece. Tunisia plays an important export role, particularly toward the EU. These Mediterranean origins dominate production, trade flows, and pricing dynamics in the global olive oil market.
In the 2025/26 season, several pressing developments affected the olive oil supply chain. Spain and Tunisia reported robust harvest volumes, with Tunisia approaching one of its largest outputs in recent campaigns, increasing processing activity. In parts of southern Italy, cooperative mills expanded capacity to handle the larger 2025 harvest following leaner seasons, enabling higher throughput of olives into processing and storage.
In Q1 2026, Tunisia requested an increase in its zero-duty olive oil export quota to the EU from 56,700 tonnes to 100,000 tonnes per year. The request mattered because Tunisian olive oil was already entering Europe at competitive prices, adding pressure on producers in Spain, Italy, and Greece. In March 2026, the EU stated that it did not plan additional trade concessions for Tunisian agricultural products, including olive oil. This helped prevent further tariff-free supply pressure during the quarter.
Olive trees are perennial and typically enter dormancy in winter. Bud break and flowering occur in spring when daily average temperatures rise above about 15–18 °C. Fruit set and growth proceed through summer with warm, dry conditions, and olives mature in late autumn. Harvest generally takes place from October through December in the Northern Hemisphere. The entire cycle from pollination to mature fruit spans roughly 180–210 days, with good production requiring well-drained soils, moderate winter chill, and minimal frost.
Olive oil production is highly sensitive to rainfall, temperature, and flowering conditions. Drought, excessive heat, or poor rainfall distribution can reduce fruit set and lower oil yields, while favorable spring and summer conditions support higher production. Because most global olive oil supply comes from Mediterranean countries, weather patterns in Spain, Italy, Greece, Tunisia, and Turkey are closely monitored by producers and buyers.
Olive fruit fly pressure remained a key pest concern in the 2025/26 campaign, particularly in Greece and parts of Spain. This fly damages developing fruit, reducing yield and oil quality if not managed effectively. Growers intensified monitoring and integrated pest management early, but outbreaks in warmer, moist pockets required additional sprays, influencing cost and harvest timing in some regions.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess olive oil prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, feedstock movements, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.

Our Price Analysis Methodology

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About the Author

Pragati Agarwal profile photo

Pragati Agarwal

Senior Business Insights Analyst

Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.

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