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Pet Coke Price Trend and Forecast
Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Pet Coke in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).
Pet Coke Price Trend for the October - December of 2023
The rising uncertainties in the cost of crude oil around the globe exhibited a significant influence on the Asian pet coke price trend. Since the advent of the quarter, the prices started their southwards journey as in order to maintain their profit margins, the Chinese steel and other basic metal industries reduced their production outputs. The major cause of this disturbance in the market is attributed to the rise in the imports of pet coke at Asian ports while its demand especially from the EV sector remained subdued.
However, on the other hand, the story of Indian pet coke price trend is completely opposite to what was observed in China. Leaving China in a second spot, India gained the status of the highest number of pet coke imports in 2023, indicating the robust industrial growth of the country. The Indian pet coke buyers showed a strong appetite that helped the traders in replenishing their stockpiles despite the volatility in the cost of crude oil and helped the pet coke price trajectory to face northwards.
The end phase of the last quarter of 2023 saw a dramatic drop in pet coke prices because of a slowdown in the European building industry. The rise in inflationary pressure in Germany exacerbated economic worries by reducing consumer demand, hurting the building industry, and influencing the consumption of pet coke.
The lack of indications of a construction rebound and a decline in new projects made the state of the market worse. As the inventories reached their saturation, the traders had to adopt destocking activities, thereby lowering the existing quoted price of pet coke.
The challenges, such as low domestic consumption, warmer weather conditions, oversupply, and competitive pricing of crude oil and coal, were well translated into the pet coke price trend during the last quarter of 2023.
The region also faced the issue of excessive rates of production, which surpassed the existing demand for pet coke, which in turn forced the traders to reduce their profit margins. Furthermore, the rise in cheap imports from Asian countries increased the competition in the market and eventually led to the downward movement of pet coke prices.
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Pet Coke are expected to face some stability in the upcoming quarters, especially in the German market, as it is showing signs of revival.
Pet Coke Price Trend for the July-September of 2023
The sanctions on the export of crude oil from the majority of exporting nations by OPEC+ raised the cost of energy products that worked in favor of pet coke price trend. In the third quarter, the upswing in the pet coke prices was also a consequence of a substantial decline in the level of inventories, supporting the demand from the domestic as well as overseas downstream industries. The supply chains also worked efficiently during this time, helping the pet coke price trend to move in the rising direction.
A subtle decline in pet coke prices during the initial months of the third quarter was due to the high rates of inflation and fluctuations in the economic conditions faced by the traders. However, as the quarter progressed, the pet coke market dynamics shifted towards the positive side, and the pet coke price trend began to incline. In addition to this, the number of inquiries from international players also improved significantly along with the interest of the construction sector that gave the pet coke price graph its required momentum.
The pet coke price trend in North America followed an exact opposite trajectory as compared to Asian and European countries. The key players in the pet coke market showcased only limited interest in the sector, and thus, the demand for pet coke experienced a noticeable fall. Due to this sluggish rate of procurement from the downstream industries, the inventories piled up causing the traders to lower their price quotation of pet coke.
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Pet Coke are expected to incline at a gradual pace as the downstream industries seem to support the rise in demand for pet coke.
Pet Coke Price Trend for the First Half of 2023
The downfall in the price trend of pet coke was caused by declining demand from the downstream industries in the first quarter of 2023. The feeble performance of the key sectors was a direct consequence of the shutting down of market activities due to the Lunar New Year holiday season in China.
The pet coke industry also slumped in South Korea; the Indian markets, however, witnessed a stable trend in prices. In the second quarter, the prices fluctuated on account of the falling cost of feedstocks and reduced procurement from the construction sector in the majority of Asian countries. In India, however, the trend surged with the growth in the construction and infrastructure sectors.
In European countries, due to high inflation, the construction sector faced numerous difficulties in maintaining its momentum, which in turn had an adverse effect on the price trend of pet Coke in the first quarter of 2023. This also hampered the spending budgets of the consumers, and with further disruptions in the supply of pet coke, the prices of pet coke found it difficult to grow.
The shortage of labor, low demand, weak performance of the downstream industries, and sanctions on Russian imports proved to be the major challenges for the prices of pet coke in the first quarter of 2023. Along with this, in the second quarter, the failure of two major banks in the US and the economic crisis exerted huge financial pressure on pet coke prices, which fell gradually during this quarter.
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Pet Coke is expected to struggle due to low demand as the construction and related sectors are grappling amid the global economic crisis.
Pet Coke Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022
The Asian market witnessed a plunging trend for Pet Coke in the third quarter of 2022. The Chinese construction market remained slow because of state-imposed restrictions on movement and outdoor activities, limiting the market offtakes. Discounted crude oil supplies to India and China from Russia kept the upstream costs in check, thereby aiding the price decline. In Q4, the consistent rise in demand from the construction sector in India pushed up the prices a bit. Overall, the price trend for pet coke remained anchored in the Asian market.
Given the economic backlash and runaway inflation, the purchasing power of European consumers was severely affected. The consistent high prices led to the phenomenon of demand destruction causing the prices to decline despite high upstream costs. Eventually, the manufacturers were forced to actively participate in destocking to clear off the inventories. Many producers shut operations considering the harsh market conditions. Hence, the price trend for pet coke kept on a lower trajectory during H2 of 2022.
The North American market mimicked the global outlook in terms of pet coke prices. Despite the high prices of crude oil, the prices of pet coke fell given the dwindling offtakes/inquiries in the market. The same market disbalance continued in the fourth quarter causing the price trend to decline as no new demand was seen.
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for pet coke are expected to remain unsettled in the coming months. As the demands from the construction sector rebound, the availability of crude oil at stable prices will likely affect the prices.
For the Second Quarter of 2022
Towards the start of the said quarter, pet coke prices surged in the Asian market due to the volatile prices of crude oil globally. However, prices soon began to stabilize due to cheap imports from Russia. Slapped with sanctions, Russia sold its products to India and China at a discounted price. The price averaged 4461 RMB/MT in the Chinese domestic arena.
These weakened price trend for pet coke were also seen in the Indian domestic market, where the prices went from 22,473 INR/MT to 20,114 INR/MT. The lower prices breathe new life into the cement investors, thereby increasing their investment returns.
The prices weakened in the second quarter due to the buyers’ resistance to buying the stocks at higher prices. The sluggish demand from the construction sector and raised speculations about potential recession triggered the prices to fall in the European domestic market.
In line with the global trend, the price trend for pet coke were on the lower end of the scale in the US domestic arena. The heightened supply due to increased refinery output amidst the low market demand caused the prices to crash. Per ton price of pet coke fell 10% M-O-M basis in June 2022, averaging around 254 USD/MT.
For the First Quarter of 2022
On March 25, the price of petroleum coke in China increased dramatically. Shandong's average market price was 4,851.25 RMB/MT, up 1.46% from the previous day's price of 4,781.25 RMB/MT. At the moment, the overall pandemic in Shandong has had minimal influence; downstream carbon factories have resumed operations one by one, and the market for petroleum coke is strong, driving up prices. The price of the fuel is projected to climb further in the foreseeable future.
From an average of 160 USD/MT in January 2022 to 180 USD/MT in February 2022, the US petroleum coke price rose to 200 USD/MT. After falling by 33% from November 2021 to January 2022, the domestic price increased by 4% month over month in February.
In January, prices for petroleum coke and imported coal rebounded after falling during November and December 2021. Coal prices rose as a result of a ban on Indonesian coal exports and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
For the Fourth Quarter of 2021
Prices of calcined coke in China increased by 20% Ex-Shanghai on a quarterly basis from Q3 to Q4 of FY21, indicating that the Asian Petroleum coke market had been steadily rising throughout the second half of FY21. Prices of calcined coke increased by about 90% from Q3 to Q4 on a CFR Visakhapatnam basis in India, following a similar trend.
Non-calcined Petroleum coke cost had also increased, with average prices stated at 120% more than the previous quarter. The imminent coal crisis, which was felt throughout China and South Asia for the majority of Q4, forced cement and metallurgical sectors to turn to Petroleum coke as an alternative.
In the last week of November, 6.5 % sulphur pet coke prices assessed on a CFR ARA basis fell by 6%, to 176 USD/MT. The trend reversal was short-lived, as pet coke prices began to rise in the second week of December, as energy consumption in Europe increased during the winter season, forcing coal prices to rise.
Due to a lack of coal supply in Asia, demand for the compound increased in the second part of FY21, resulting in an increase in coal export prices. By mid-November, however, the pet coke to coal discount had narrowed as China's coal prices began to fall as a result of government intervention.
On a FOB USGC basis, the November end prices of 6.5% Sulphur Petroleum Coke were quoted at a 9.5% discount to API4 coal, down from 37% in October. However, prices rose again in December, as winter energy consumption in North America and Europe was typically higher, causing energy prices to rise.
In South America, pet coke prices were cheap initially in 2021, but in December it jumped sharply due to market tight supply, Also, the demand rose in December due to the reviving of the market and oil and gas industry activities after the new COVID variant. The price was recorded at 380 USD/DMT.
For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021
The Asian market had a varied price and demand for this product; for example, demand was high in India, but low in China. In the first quarter of 2021, demand from the steel production industry remained low in China, and prices fell effectively due to consistent supply. Meanwhile, in India, strong demand from the cement production sector boosted the prices throughout the quarter, affecting retail cement prices. Several Petroleum coke behemoths raised their pricing, for example, RIL (Reliance Industries Ltd) raised its Petroleum rates from around 125 USD/MT to 150 USD/MT in the first quarter.
In the third quarter of 2021, the market in Asia saw conflicting sentiments. Prices fell at the start of the quarter as production rates increased and import activity improved. However, in the second part of the quarter, an extraordinary increase in its value was noticed, owing to a number of circumstances including Hurricane Ida's arrival on the US Gulf Coast and congestion at numerous Chinese ports.
In India, the supply chain interruption caused by Hurricane Ida, as well as congestion at China ports, resulted in a product supply deficit, which drove up the prices in the Indian market. Thus, in September, the price in India was 188.36 USD /MT, a slight increase of 22.41 USD/MT from July.
The European market saw a surge in Petroleum Coke shipments, particularly from Asia. As a result of the freezing storm, North America's production and exports remained stifled, Europe seized the opportunity to capture the region's market for this quarter. However, the Suez Canal crisis at the end of March temporarily impeded exports. Container shortages existed before to this crisis, but freight prices climbed significantly as a result of the Suez Canal crisis.
In Q3 2021, the European market prognosis for the compound saw an increasing trend in pricing, owing to low production rates and strong demand from downstream firms. Furthermore, the rise in feedstock crude oil prices, as well as exorbitant freight charges on Europe-Asia and Europe-US interoceanic trade routes, contributed to the price inflation of Petroleum Coke in Europe.
Because of the impact of Hurricane Ida, crude oil output struggled to recover during this time period, resulting in a shortage of the compound in the regional market, as Europe imports the majority of this product from the United States. In September, CFR Hamburg pet coke prices rose to 504 USD/MT, up 49 USD/MT from July.
The production in North America was effectively halted as a result of the North American winter storm, as manufacturers experienced numerous challenges in operating their operations in such weather circumstances.
As a result of the winter storm, some facilities or refineries were forced to shut down and reduce production to nearly zero. More than 50,000 tonnes of output were anticipated to have been impeded as a result of the storm, which pushed up prices from 205 USD/MT in January 2021 to 220 USD/MT in March 2021.
With the restart of various plants around the region, positive hope began to hover around the end of March. Pet coke prices rose in the third quarter of 2021, owing to upstream crude oil price volatility. Furthermore, as part of a contingency plan ahead of Hurricane Ida, most oil and gas refineries around the Gulf Coast of the United States shut down their units in August, directly impacting the prices in Q3.
In addition, due to the pandemic, numerous refineries lowered their output, which was aided by lower jet fuel usage. In addition, the hurricane Ida compounded the crisis by driving up freight costs and disrupting supply chains, resulting in an enormous price increase. Thus, the FOB-US monthly average price was 515 USD /MT in September, up 45 USD /MT from July.
According to GTT data, green Petroleum coke (GPC) exports increased to 55,300 MT in March from near-zero levels a year earlier, while imports more than doubled. On a CIF US Gulf basis, the price for 0.8 % sulphur coke close to Brazil's quality tripled in the last year, reaching a midpoint of 352.50 USD/DMT (dry metric tonne) last month, up from 132.50 USD/DMT in March 2020. Because global GPC supply had been extremely limited, the distributors were presumably holding part of the Brazilian coke for their own calcining operations.
For the Year 2020
In comparison to Q3 2020, demand for Petroleum Coke in Asia increased significantly in Q4 2020. The cement industry's demand had risen as a result of continuous development projects in Southeast Asia, particularly China, Vietnam, and India.
Prices for calcined and non-calcined Petroleum Coke ranged from 200 to 240 USD/MT and 62 to 76 USD/MT, respectively, depending on quantity and distance from the import point. Due to an increase in building activities and increased demand from the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, market sentiment improved in Q4 2020. Due to a balance in demand and supply, pet coke prices were expected to remained constant in Q1 2021.
The demand throughout Europe remained strong. Due to insufficient demand in the country, exports from the Phillips 66 Company factory in the United Kingdom had surged. Furthermore, the majority of exports were sent to countries in Asia-Pacific. Because of the disparity in demand across Europe, the price of Pet Coke varied.
The price of HSR grade was 340-416 USD/MT, whereas the price of HSP grade was 1000-1200 USD/MT. In comparison to Q3 2020, pet coke prices increased by 3-5 %. The demand from the European region was predicted to increase in the coming months, and the prices were expected to climb as crude oil prices rose around the world.
Prices in the United States began to rise in Q4 2020, owing to consistent increases in feedstock crude oil costs. The demand for the compound in the region has increased since Q3 2020, with non-calcined Pet Coke prices ranging from 60 to 72 USD/MT, while green Pet Coke prices had been trending upward and were traded between 67 and 73 USD/MT.
The margins increased, and demand from both the domestic and international markets was also increasing. Due to the rise in sweet crude prices, refineries with a higher Nelson Complexity Index saw a solid demand and larger profit margin, whereas sour crude prices increased somewhat. Prices were expected to rise in the coming months as a result of increasing demand from the region and the end-use industry.
In 2020, the Brazilian market price of Pet Coke was recorded at 132.5 USD/MT. From October through December 2020, Brazil maintained consistent GPC exports to China, although shipments previous to 2020 were more erratic. Since the introduction of Covid-19, China's anode-grade coke supply was already reduced, with some indications that the decline may be structural as refiners limit coke production.
Procurement Resource provides latest prices of PET Coke. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.
PET Coke or better known as Petroleum coke is basically a final carbon-rich solid material that is extracted from oil refining. It belongs to a group of fuels referred to as coke. PET Coke, in particular, is extracted from a final cracking process— in a thermo-based chemical engineering process - that splits long chain hydrocarbons of petroleum into shorter chains.
|Batteries, Steel, Aluminium, Fuel, Electric power plants
|Vasundhra Enterprises, Dwarkesh Fuel Industries, Laxmi Mineral (Hindustan Westcoast Trading Co. Group), N G Minchem Private Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
|Asia Pacific: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America: United States and Canada
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
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PET Coke is known to be a final carbon rich solid material that is derived or extracted during the oil refining process. It is a product that is particularly derived by the cracking process.
The displayed pricing data is derived through weighted average purchase price, including contract and spot transactions at the specified locations unless otherwise stated. The information provided comes from the compilation and processing of commercial data officially reported for each nation (i.e. government agencies, external trade bodies, and industry publications).
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