- Rebar prices in China moved in a narrow and mostly weak range in Q1 2026, as seasonal demand weakness and inventory pressure offset policy optimism and cost support.
- Feedstock and mill-side support prevented sharper declines, with producers showing firm pricing intent and cautious output recovery during parts of the quarter.
- Downstream demand remained soft early in the quarter due to slow site resumptions, then improved gradually in March as construction activity recovered.
In China, rebar prices were about ~RMB 3.32/kg (Spot FD) in January and around ~RMB 3.31/kg in March. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, rebar prices decreased by about 0.92% in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025, while from January to March, prices decreased by about 0.41%, showing only a marginal downward trend. The market weakened in January as terminal transactions fell and downstream demand reduced before the holiday, while supply recovery and rising mill inventories added pressure. Winter stockpiling stayed weak, with less than 30% of companies planning active stockpiling, and most traders either stocked passively or avoided it altogether, which limited market support. By March, demand was gradually released as construction site resumptions improved and inventory began to draw down, but absolute inventory levels remained high, and buyers showed weak acceptance of higher-priced materials, keeping the market range bound rather than strongly bullish.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, rebar prices are likely to stay volatile in a narrow range, with gradual demand recovery offering support; however, high inventories will continue to cap upside.