Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend and Forecast
Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Refined Coconut Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).
Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2024
Product | Category | Region | Price | Time Period |
Refined Coconut Oil | Food and Beverages | Indonesia | 1011 USD/MT (EXW) to around 1090 USD/MT | H1'24 |
Refined Coconut Oil | Food and Beverages | Philippines | 1265 USD/MT | June’24 |
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Asia
Asia accounts for the most coconut-producing and exporting countries in the world; therefore, the price transitions here dictate the global coconut markets. During the first half of the year 2024, refined coconut oil prices were found raging for the entire span of six months. Coconut production in India has been reduced primarily due to the adverse impacts of climate change, notably severe heatwaves and high temperatures that have led to water scarcity and disrupted irrigation systems. These extreme weather conditions have caused crop wilting, lower quality yields, and increased pest populations.
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Additionally, environmental stress has accelerated the maturation of coconuts. Following an inclined price trajectory, the average prices in the Philippines averaged around 1265 USD/MT (EXW) in June’24. Similarly, in the Indonesian refined coconut oil market a shift from about 1011 USD/MT (EXW) to around 1090 USD/MT (EXW) over the concerned timeframe. These price transitions did incorporate some reverse fluctuations as well; however, the overall market inclination was largely positive around this time.
Europe
Since Asian coconut oil exports dictate the global refined coconut oil market, the trend in European markets was also found to reflect the oscillations of the Asian markets. The downstream demands in the European markets were quite steady and regular, with not much surprise. However, the available supplies and logistical disruptions emerged as the biggest price drivers for the European refined coconut oil markets.
Since the pirate issues erupted in the Red Sea with frequent Houthi attacks on carriage shipments, the freight charges surged up, on top of that, the limited availability of coconut and associated products at the source locations further complicated the regional trade scenario. Overall, the trend exhibited variations for the European market; after a soft start, prices picked up as the first quarter came to an end. However, with steady normalization in the demand outlook, the second quarter closed on a relatively stable note.
North America
The refined coconut oil witnessed a varying price pattern in the North American markets; the prices had a slow start in the region as the downstream demands were sluggish during the peak winter months. As time progressed, the downstream demands also started improving along with that, the price curve also started inclining steadily.
At one point, the various geopolitical and other trade-related disruptions really affected the overall pricing outlook. However, as the second quarter neared conclusion, the markets started stabilizing again. With these oscillating movements, the downstream demands remained the key market driver. Overall, mixed market sentiments were witnessed in H1’24.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, Refined Coconut Oil prices are expected to normalize in the global markets going forward. The supply and demand outlooks are looking more conducive.
Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023
Asia
Owing to the steady rise in downstream industry consumption rates, the refined coconut oil market started the third quarter on a positive note. As a result, the price of Indonesian refined coconut oil increased during that time. Nevertheless, a subsequent downturn was noted as purchases by the consumer sector steadily slowed down.
Global logistical issues, such as shifting transportation prices and the emergence of less expensive substitutes, further complicated the dynamics of the industry. Notwithstanding these obstacles, the market for refined coconut oil concluded the year on a good note in terms of production costs. Malaysia, on the other hand, showed tenacity, seeing little fluctuation and only a minor decline in averages.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, European traders witnessed a notable increase in refined coconut oil price trends. This uptick was driven by exponentially rising demand from domestic consumers, boosting sentiments of refined coconut oil prices. However, producers faced challenges from adverse weather conditions, including sudden floods and erratic rainfall patterns, which reduced agricultural output and constrained material availability in the market. Nonetheless, market dynamics shifted in the fourth quarter due to the fragile state of the global economy and an excess of overseas imports.
North America
The interplay between the trading sector, demand, and production rates had a significant impact on the price trend of refined coconut oil in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Prices for refined coconut oil rose in the third quarter due to a combination of a rise in export margins and increasing consumer demand.
The gap between supply and demand was also increased by an increase in bulk orders and the scarcity of raw materials, which contributed to the price trend upward. But by the end of the fourth quarter, stockpiles had grown, upending the fundamentals of the market for refined coconut oil.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Refined Coconut Oil is estimated to incline further as the limited production and rise in demand will widen the gap between supply and demand sectors of the market.
Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023
Asia
In the Asia-Pacific, the prices of refined coconut oil oscillated amid the uneven trend in demand from the downstream sector in the first quarter. The rise in stockpiles aided by high production rates only resulted in the downfall in the prices of refined coconut oil. In the second quarter, too, the falling cost of crude oil, the pressure of rising inventory levels, and slow demand from the consumer sector challenged the growth of the refined coconut oil price trend.
Europe
The first quarter of 2023 in European countries was similar to what was observed in Asia Pacific. The rise in production rates amid low demand led to the southward movement of refined coconut oil prices in the first half of the first quarter. The trend stabilized a little towards the end phase as the removal of export limitations benefited the momentum of refined coconut oil prices. This growth phase was short-lived as higher stockpiles and low demand affected the second-quarter price trend of refined coconut oil negatively.
North America
In North America, the downstream industries such as food and cosmetics showcased a mixed demand trend. The first half of the first quarter enjoyed inflation in food prices due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and disruptions in the supply chains, but the second half struggled with the rise in number of stockpiles. The momentum continued to plunge in the second quarter, too, due to weak support from the export rates and a fall in the prices of corn, edible oils, and other grains.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Refined Coconut Oil is estimated to struggle with high production rates and lower demand, which will likely result in an imbalance between supply-demand dynamics.
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