Liquid ammonia prices in China moved lower through Week 24 as a wave of plant restarts following scheduled maintenance periods added supply to a market already contending with soft demand. The return of production from facilities that had been offline for upkeep work increased the volume of liquid ammonia available to buyers, shifting the immediate supply-demand balance against sellers.
Agricultural demand, typically a key outlet for ammonia consumption during the crop season, remained subdued in Week 24, with compound fertilizer producers operating at low rates and reducing their purchases of liquid ammonia as a result. The downstream pull from the fertilizer segment was insufficient to absorb the additional supply, leaving inventories at producer facilities above preferred levels.
Industrial buyers showed limited restocking appetite, with purchasing activity largely confined to covering immediate operational requirements rather than building forward inventory positions. The combination of recovering supply and restrained demand across both agricultural and industrial channels kept the market under consistent downward pressure through Week 24, and prices settled lower by the close of the week.
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Week 25 produced a reversal as the same maintenance dynamic that had boosted supply in the prior week shifted to a tightening force. Scheduled outages at a number of plants in northern China reduced production at those facilities, withdrawing volume from a market that had only recently returned to equilibrium following the Week 24 restarts. Regional logistics compounded the supply reduction, with outbound shipment restrictions in parts of the country limiting the movement of available material to buyers in affected areas. Sellers in those regions found themselves with firmer pricing power as local availability contracted and buyers faced fewer sourcing options for prompt procurement. The inability to readily redirect material from unaffected areas due to shipment constraints meant that regional scarcity translated directly into price support, allowing producers and traders to lift offers without significant buyer resistance. Prices moved higher through Week 25 as the market absorbed the combined effect of reduced northern production and restricted regional logistics.
For procurement teams sourcing liquid ammonia in China, the two-week pattern reflects a market closely tied to plant maintenance schedules and regional logistics conditions. The speed with which prices fell in Week 24 and then recovered in Week 25 driven in both cases by the supply side rather than demand underscores the importance of tracking maintenance calendars at major ammonia producers and monitoring logistics conditions in key production regions when planning procurement timing and stock cover.
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