News and Articles

• Cocoa prices fell in Week 24 as buyers stayed cautious after earlier market volatility.
• Softer chocolate demand and pressure on confectionery volumes reduced fresh cocoa buying.
• Expectations of better supply availability and a surplus outlook added downward pressure.
• Prices rebounded in Week 25 as El Niño risks raised concern over West African cocoa crops.
• Lower ICE-certified cocoa stocks at US ports added a tighter supply signal and supported higher prices.

Cocoa prices fell during the 24th week of 2026 as buyers stayed cautious after earlier market volatility. Processors and confectionery buyers slowed fresh purchasing activity, choosing to manage coverage carefully rather than build larger forward positions. This reduced market activity and pulled prices lower.

Demand from the chocolate and confectionery sector also remained soft. Pressure on confectionery volumes made processors more careful with procurement, limiting fresh cocoa buying. At the same time, expectations of better supply availability and a possible surplus reduced urgency among traders. With buyers cautious, demand weaker and supply expectations improving, cocoa prices declined through Week 24.

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The market rebounded in Week 25 as traders focused on supply risks in West Africa. El Niño-related weather concerns raised the possibility of irregular rainfall in key cocoa-producing regions, especially Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Any disruption to crop development in these countries could reduce future supply and tighten the market.

Analysts lowered their cocoa surplus outlook for the current and upcoming crop seasons, which reduced confidence in earlier expectations of comfortable supply. Lower ICE-certified cocoa stocks at US ports added another sign of tighter near-term availability. These supply concerns brought buyers back into the market and pushed cocoa prices higher during Week 25.