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• Spanish conventional extra virgin held near 4.2-4.5 euros per kilogram.
• Rain and labor shortages cut the Jaen region output about 45%.
• Spain led EU production near 1.37 million tons despite the decline.
• Buyers capped prices, limiting further rises despite tight supply.
• A larger 1.7 million ton Spanish crop is expected for 2026/27.

Olive oil prices at origin held high through early June 2026 as rain damage to the Spanish harvest kept supply tight. Spanish conventional extra virgin olive oil traded near 4.2 to 4.5 euros per kilogram, with organic grades higher and Italian extra virgin at a steep premium of 6.5 to 7.0 euros per kilogram. The firm prices reflect a season cut short by weather, even as Spain held its place as the largest producer in the European Union.

The Spanish crop tells the main story. Spain led EU output at about 1.37 million tons despite a small decline for the 2025/26 season, but persistent rain in November and December, combined with limited labor, hit specific regions hard. The Jaen region saw an estimated 45% drop in output year on year, as heavy rainfall reduced the number of effective harvesting days and left growers collecting fewer olives than expected. That regional shortfall tightened the supply of higher-quality oil and widened the gap between premium and standard grades.

Buyers responded by capping how much they would pay, which limited further price rises even with supply tight. The quality gap added complexity, since rain affected not just volume but the share of oil meeting extra virgin standards. Italy faced its own pressures, with growers contending with high production costs and a market marked by thinner margins and renewed price swings. The result across the Mediterranean is a market where weather and quality, more than demand, are setting prices.

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The outlook offers some hope for relief. Early 2026 rainfall has led industry participants to expect a larger Spanish crop of around 1.7 million tons for the 2026/27 cycle. A harvest of that size would ease the tightness that has kept prices elevated and could pull origin prices lower later in the year, though the crop is still months from being secured.

For procurement teams in food manufacturing, food service and retail, the current market means firm costs for extra virgin olive oil with limited near-term relief. Buyers should plan around elevated prices through the rest of the 2025/26 season while watching the 2026/27 harvest closely, since a strong Spanish crop would change the picture. The practical step is to track origin prices in Spain and Italy, the share of oil meeting quality grades, and weather through the next growing season. Buyers needing premium extra virgin face the steepest costs given the quality gap, while those able to accept standard grades have more room. With supply tight now but a larger crop in prospect, olive oil buyers should balance near-term cover against the chance of easing prices ahead.