- Global ammonia prices declined in Q2’26 as softer fertilizer demand, adequate regional availability and changing trade flows outweighed support from geopolitical and energy-market disruptions.
- Natural gas and hydrogen economics remained the key feedstock factors, while volatility in energy and raw-material flows affected production costs and nitrogen supply decisions.
- Agricultural demand remained the primary downstream driver, while emissions control and industrial applications provided additional consumption support but did not fully offset delayed fertilizer buying.
Asia
In China, ammonia prices fell from ~USD 408.81/MT to ~USD 339.00/MT, respectively, in the first and last month if the second quarter of 2026, showing a ~17.1% decrease during the said period. The market strengthened slightly early in Q2 as maintenance activities and temporary operating disruptions reduced availability, while agricultural and industrial buyers increased purchases. Conditions reversed in May as restarted plants improved supply, fertilizer producers reduced procurement and buyers shifted to immediate purchasing. Chinese ammonia demand weakened from urea, compound fertilizers, nitric acid and caprolactam sectors, limiting price recovery. In India, ammonia prices declined to ~USD 458.70/MT in April and ~USD 426.90/MT in June, showing a ~6.9% decrease. Fertilizer demand ahead of the Kharif season provided support, with expected fertilizer requirements reaching 390.54 lakh tonnes and available stocks covering over 51% of demand. Higher inventory availability reduced the need for urgent ammonia imports despite continued shipping risks.
Europe
In the European region, the ammonia price graph displayed mixed trends during Q2'26. Ammonia prices remained supported early in Q2 due to high natural gas costs, reduced domestic production economics and supply uncertainty from disrupted imports. Gas expenses remained a major challenge, with European producers facing significantly higher energy costs compared with US suppliers. However, weak downstream demand limited further price increases. Euro-area industrial production increased only 0.1% month on month in April, restricting ammonia consumption from chemicals, explosives, refrigeration and industrial applications. Cautious fertilizer buying and uncertainty around carbon-related import requirements reduced inventory building, keeping the market balanced despite high production costs. By the end of the quarter, the ammonia prices showed a slight decline as the natural gas prices normalised.
North America
In the United States, ammonia prices were ~USD 495.81/MT in April to ~USD 494.30/MT in the last month of Q2’26. The market received early support from global supply disruptions but weakened later as domestic availability improved. Meanwhile, Woodside’s Beaumont New Ammonia facility in Texas added up to 1.1 million tonnes annually of production capacity during the quarter, improving regional supply security and reducing import dependence. Furthermore, adequate natural gas availability by the end of the quarter supported producers. However, lower US corn planting of 95.3 million acres reduced potential nitrogen fertilizer demand growth. Overall, the ammonia price curve witnessed limited fluctuations during the second quarter of 2026.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, ammonia prices are likely to remain sensitive to fertilizer demand, natural gas costs, production reliability and trade flows, with seasonal agricultural buying providing potential support.