Ammonia Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Market Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Ammonia in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Ammonia Price Trend for the First Half of 2023


The ammonia market in the Asia-Pacific region remained bearish as the prices declined in the said period. The region witnessed low demand from the downstream industries, and as a result, the prices declined from around 643 USD/MT in January to 409 USD/MT in June’23 in the Chinese domestic market. The fall in the prices was gradual in the first quarter but became steep in the second quarter. The downstream fertilizer industry witnessed an excess availability of nitrogen-based fertilizers and thus reduced their offtakes, aiding the falling trajectory of ammonia prices in the region.


In Europe, the price trends for Ammonia registered a downward trajectory, given the continuous fall in natural gas prices. Furthermore, the feeble demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers to ample availability further affected ammonia prices. In addition, the whole European region suffered from weak market sentiments, and a reduced number of offtakes from the downstream industries combinedly kept the price trend of Ammonia in the negative zone. The prices of Black Sea ammonia averaged around 300-310 USD/MT FOB in April’23, while Northwest Europe averaged around 390-430 USD/MT CFR in April’23.

North America

The North American region was not much different from its European and Asian counterparts. Ammonia prices dipped in the said period as the demand from local and international buyers declined significantly. The price trends also suffered from the rise in the inflow of imports with the opening of ports leading to the disruption in the supply-demand dynamics of the region. Further, the demand from the fertilizer industry affected the pricing fundamentals. The fertilizer prices continued to fall in the first half of 2023, given the downward pressure on grain, energy, and other commodities. The ammonia prices averaged around 500-550 USD/MT FOB Tampa at the beginning of May and end of April period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for Ammonia are likely to decline in the upcoming months. The weak demand from the fertilizer industry and rising uncertainties in the costs of natural gas are expected to fluctuate the price trend of Ammonia.

Ammonia Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022


The prices of ammonia fell through the said period owing to the relaxed upstream costs. The prices and supply of coal stabilized after reaching peaks in the first half of the year. With the decrease in the feedstock prices, the operating rates soared leading to stockpiling of products in the market.

The muted demands from the market, especially the fertilizer industry, further crashed the prices in the market. Also, the power rationing by the Chinese government deeply impacted the industrial economy. In India, the ammonia prices were bleak owing to weak demand and abundant supply. The prices of ammonia went from 1156 USD/MT (CFR India) (approx..) in September to 870 USD/MT (CFR India) in December’22.


The price trends for ammonia in Q3 were on the higher end of the scale in the European region owing to the soaring prices of crude oil. The European embargo on Russian oil exports caused high-cost inflation in Europe. Many manufacturers such as BASF shut down their ammonia production units because of the high operating costs and low margins. However, the price trends witnessed an oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter. Soon the high prices led to demand destruction as the purchasing power of the people was limited owing to the hike in interest rates by the central banks worldwide.

North America

The prices of ammonia fell in the Us domestic market owing to the dwindling demand from the downstream sectors. Despite the lowered costs of feedstocks and operating costs the supply and prices remained low due to the cautious buying activity of the buyers amid the interest hikes and economic slowdown.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of ammonia are likely to stay towards the lower end of the scale given the present pricing fundamentals. Though the demand is returning; the overflowing stockpiles and weakened industrial activities will control the ammonia pricing.

For the Second Quarter of 2022


Due to the restrictions by China on exports of the fertilizer to meet its domestic demands, the prices soared globally. Coupled with the complex geopolitical arrangements, they hit a record-breaking high.

However, in the current quarter, the prices began to fall due to strong resistance from the buyers to purchase at these higher dictated prices.


Due to the rising natural gas price in Europe, the factories were forced to cut down their production due to the ongoing confrontations, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions causing the price to rise. The reluctance of the buyers to buy at such high costs and low market sentiment caused the fertilizer’s prices to plunge.

The Baltic ammonia averaged 919-988 USD/MT, while the Black Sea ammonia averaged 938-960 USD/MT FOB. The price remained strong despite this slight plunge compared with the last quarter. The price trend for the fertilizer will tend to remain uncertain this year due to volatility in the European market.

North America

Despite the growing prices of fertilizers, a dip was recorded in the current price of ammonia.

The June spot price of Tampa (Florida) ammonia was 1000 USD/MT, 30% less than the 1425 USD/MT recorded in May 2022. This dip in the market was due to buyers balking because of the record high prices in the market. Regardless, ammonia prices are overall 87% higher as compared to the previous year owing to the uncertainties in its supply and market demands.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, ammonia prices are expected to decline in the coming quarter. With the easing up of supply and prices of upstream coal and enhanced production rates, product inventories will increase. Given the currently muted offtakes, the prices are likely to fall.

For the First Quarter of 2022


Shandong liquid ammonia market stopped increasing and steadied on March 28, and pricing was unchanged from the previous weekend at 5000 RMB/MT. There being no inventory pressure in the region, products were sparse, and downstream regular procurement was the primary source of supply.

The prices of most big factories remained unchanged in March, and the high costs had influenced some demand, but ammonia supply in the region remained limited. The failure of liquid ammonia production was caused by the conversion of some ammonia firms to urea, further maintaining the high costs. During the first quarter of 2022, supply and demand were evenly balanced.


Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the shutdown of the Black Sea Yuzhny port in February resulted in the loss of Russian exports, which generally account for roughly 4.5 MMT or 20% of global seaborne trade yearly. Sanctions against a number of Russian billionaires linked to fertiliser manufacture shut off much of the supplies from Baltic Sea firms such as EuroChem and Uralchem.

Fertilizer major Yara halted ammonia production at its locations in Ferrara, Italy, and Le Havre, France, on March 9, citing record high natural gas prices in Europe. After completing a series of industry-reported deals, including a record high settlement price of the monthly CFR Tampa contract at 1,625 USD/MT, the business stated that it was resuming ammonia production at the two sites.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021


Overall, the market in Asia was optimistic, with robust demand in India to fulfil their needs throughout the rabi crop season, while the outlook for Chinese ammonia in the local spot market remained bullish, thanks to increasing natural gas and coal prices.

Furthermore, the influence of Chinese authorities' dual-control energy consumption restrictions to decrease carbon emissions and limit power use prevailed in the fourth quarter of 2021. As a result, some ammonia factories had to reduce their output, causing China's government to outright restrict downstream urea shipments to the foreign market.


The rise in ammonia prices since the summer months were mostly ascribed to the rise in natural gas costs. Following a rise in the price of natural gas used in the manufacturing process, many companies lowered ammonia production at various factories in Europe from September to November, reducing the overall production in the region.

Ammonia prices in Europe were the highest in the world as of Dec. 15, at 1,120 USD/MT CFR Northwest Europe while FOB Black Sea, a major source of ammonia for Europe, was 1,055 USD/MT (up 49%). The strong pricing for both ammonia and natural gas feedstock in Europe prompted European customers to search for available spot cargoes in other key ammonia production hubs around the world, such as the Caribbean and the Middle East, causing prices to rise globally.

North America

As a result of Hurricane Ida, several US Gulf nitrogen plants remained offline in October, causing the production to halt. Ammonia prices surged in the Midwest, with Koch declaring new levels as high as 1,100 USD/MT FOB at its Corn Belt terminals and plants; a near two-fold increase over prices of 650 to 680 USD/MT in the Midwest recorded at the end of September. CF and other producers and sellers in the region followed Koch's lead, with CF setting a new price of 1,200 USD/MT FOB for overpull delivery amounts in the Northern Plains and Iowa.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021


Per ton price of liquid ammonia in Shandong rose from around 3,200 RMB at the start of the year to 5,300 RMB in mid-October, a 65% increase. It surpassed a ten-year high. Ammonia prices dropped to around 4,200 RMB/MT in the last two months of the year, with an overall increase of over 35% for the year. The main reason was that as the domestic epidemic continued to ease, the domestic economy recovered quickly, and its demand grew steadily under the favourable national policy to support the agricultural economy.


In early 2021, domestic agrochemicals firms in Europe had a strong demand for the compound, but supply was inconsistent. Due to high demand and limited availability, dealers were compelled to pay premium prices for it. Later in the year, demand from the nitrogen-based fertilisers sector remained strong enough to maintain the overall price trend.

Russian manufacturers' output remained at an all-time high, owing to strong regional and local demand in the fertiliser sector. Furthermore, during early April, the Suez Canal blockade had an impact on ammonia’s regional prices and its downstream derivatives, as supply between Asia and Europe was disrupted for a week.

As the European natural gas prices witnessed a sharp increase in early September, operations of ammonia plants in Europe became increasingly difficult. As a result, BASF reduced its production at its factories in Antwerp, Belgium, and Ludwigshafen, Germany. Similarly, Yara reduced its European production capacity by roughly 40%, including ongoing maintenance optimization. As a result, ammonia prices in Europe continued to grow sharply by roughly 300 USD/MT since January 2021. In September, CFR Hamburg prices were 710 USD/MT in Germany.

North America

In June 2020, anhydrous ammonia prices in the United States dipped to 226.50 USD/MT before rapidly rising to 432.50 USD/MT in February 2021. Anhydrous ammonia prices jumped 34% to 580 USD/MT in March 2021. Prices have continuously risen since then, reaching 1,022.50 USD/MT in October 2021, the highest level since 2008.

Ammonia price ncrease is often linked with natural gas prices. However, natural gas accounted for only 15% of the increase in its price in October. When this increase was subtracted, it was found that ammonia prices followed the trend of corn prices. Corn is a major user of fertilizers, with nitrogen accounting for more than 50% of the cost.

Latin America

Fertilizer production in Mexico fell 17.6% in the first quarter of 2021, from 0.62 MT in January-March 2020 to 0.51 MT in March 2021, but apparent consumption increased by 3.8% to 1.59 MT at the same time. In March 2021, ammonia prices in Culiacán and Navolato had increased by about 20% in only one month, and by nearly 40% from January to March, reaching market highs of up to 14,900 MXN/MT.

The increase in price was attributed to factors such as reduced production. At least five factories, including three owned by Norway's Yara were shut down due to increasing natural gas prices, removing a total of 300,000 tonnes of product each month. Alongside, strong demand from fertiliser and other chemical product manufacturers, such as pharmaceuticals and cleaning products, reflected a strong rebound in the prices, forcing traders to pay premiums to ensure cash shipments due to sanitary measures imposed by Covid-19.

For the Year 2020


In 2020, the average market price of synthetic ammonia in China's key producing provinces was 2,850 RMB/MT, down 7.32% year on year. With the recovery of natural gas supplies and the impact of public health incidents, supply and demand in the liquid ammonia market were both weak in the first half of 2020, resulting in price volatility.

Later in the year, fertiliser was utilised for spring ploughing, agricultural demand surged, and prices began to rebound. Furthermore, local supply expanded dramatically as a result of the frequent shutdown of urea facilities in some large factories in the first half of the year. Alongside, the ending of spring season reduced fertilizer supply, dropping the prices further.

After a slight drop in the fourth quarter, the synthetic ammonia market continued to rise. The supply of commodities in Shanxi and other markets increasingly tightened due to atmospheric control and other factors, followed by the deletion of backward production capacity such as fixed beds in Henan, which was mostly executed by the end of December and contributed to the price increase. Recent market tensions have been exacerbated by factors such as power outages and rising coal prices.


The European business was seen struggling with low sales as coronavirus infections wreaked havoc on industrial and agricultural activities. Scheduled turnarounds and unanticipated outages hampered exports, resulting in a drop in its shipments from the Black Sea and Baltic. In September, certain Russian ammonia tankers were booked for South Korea as a more cost-effective alternative to shipping cargo from Trinidad. In July, Russia's total production of the compound reached a new high on a year-over-year basis, with FOB ammonia prices hovering at 180-190 USD/MT.

North America

Hurricanes and tropical storms prompted turnarounds at many chemicals and fertiliser plants in 2020. Three Trinidad producers temporarily shut down output in late September, including a 500,000 tons-per-year export-oriented Trinidad Nitrogen Company Limited (Tringen) plant in Point Lisas.

Due to the unexpected drop in regional prices, Nutrien was the first to shut down portion of its output. While prices improved significantly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Russia during mid-2020, the supplies in the Americas remained substantially discounted. Spot prices were estimated to be between 170-180 USD/MT FOB US Gulf.

Latin America

In early March, the price in Mexico was estimated to be approximately 6,560 MXN/MT. During the pre-planting of corn in the months of October and November, the price remained stable at an average of 10,700 MXN/MT while it dropped by 10% during the peak of planting in December, with the per tonne price being more or less 9,800 pesos.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Ammonia. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.

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Ammonia is a colourless alkaline gas which is one of the most widely available nitrogen-containing compounds in the atmosphere. It is also known as an irritant having a characteristic pungent odour that is typically utilised at a commercial scale. Ammonia is highly miscible in water and, upon inhalation, is deposited in the upper airways.

Product Details

Report Features Details
Product Name Ammonia
Chemical Formula NH3
Industrial Uses Purify water supplies, Fabrics, Plastics, Pharmaceuticals, Explosives
Molecular Weight 17.031 g/mol
Synonyms 7664-41-7, Azane, Ammonia gas, Spirit of hartshorn
Supplier Database Yara International, Qatar Fertiliser Company, Nutrien Ltd., Jordan Phosphate Mines Company Limited, Eurochem Group AG, Yidu Xingfa Chemical Co., Ltd., Yunnan Yuntianhua International Chemical Co., Ltd, Chemische Fabrik Budenheim KG, Innophos, Inc., Maaden-Saudi Arabian Mining Company
Region/Countries Covered Asia Pacific: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand

Europe: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,  Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece

North America: United States and Canada

Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru

Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
Currency US$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database Availability Yes
Customization Scope The report can be customized as per the requirements of  the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support 360-degree analyst support after report delivery

Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.

Production Processes

In the Haber process, hydrogen is produced via natural gas, which is further combined with nitrogen in the presence of iron to finally form Ammonia.


The displayed pricing data is derived through weighted average purchase price, including contract and spot transactions at the specified locations unless otherwise stated. The information provided comes from the compilation and processing of commercial data officially reported for each nation (i.e. government agencies, external trade bodies, and industry publications).

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