Coffee prices have been declining lately amid higher global production and moderate demand dynamics

Coffee prices have faced sustained downward pressure in recent weeks, driven by expectations of larger global production and weaker demand. Market sentiment remains bearish as key growing regions report improving harvest prospects, while economic headwinds continue to weigh on consumption.

Recent forecasts suggest global coffee output will rise in the upcoming season, with top producers expected to boost production. Brazil, the leading arabica grower, is projected to see a slight increase in output, while Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, anticipates a significant year-over-year rise in production. These projections have reinforced market expectations of ample supplies, limiting upward price momentum.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, exchange-monitored stockpiles for both arabica and robusta have climbed to multi-month highs, signaling comfortable near-term availability. Rising inventories have further dampened prices, particularly for robusta, where warehouse levels recently reached an eight-month peak.

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Concerns over sluggish demand have also contributed to the price decline. Economic uncertainties and shifting consumer spending patterns have raised doubts about near-term consumption growth. Additionally, trade policies affecting import costs could further squeeze demand, particularly in major consuming markets.

Despite the overall bearish outlook, some supportive factors remain. Dry conditions in Brazil’s key arabica-growing regions have raised concerns about potential yield losses, which could tighten supplies later in the season. Meanwhile, export volumes from Brazil have declined significantly compared to last year, providing some underlying price support.

For robusta, production challenges in Vietnam, where drought has reduced output. have kept prices from falling further. Export figures from the country remain below last year’s levels, reinforcing supply tightness in the robusta market. However, expectations of a record robusta crop in Brazil could offset some of these concerns in the longer term.