Coffee prices rebounded higher after a sell-off, with short-covering and relief that new tariffs exclude coffee from restrictions. Bearish factors include USDA's record global output forecast and rising Vietnam exports, while El Niño weather concerns for future crops provide support.
Coffee prices fell after USDA forecast record global production for 2026-27, led by a significant increase in Brazil. The anticipated supply surge is easing market tightness and pressuring prices lower, although a slow harvest pace and inventory changes are moderating the decline.
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | Colombia | FOB | USD 7,131.00/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | Brazil | FOB | USD 6,476.00/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | USA | FOB | USD 6,833.50/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | Guinea | FOB | USD 6,954.00/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | UK | FOB | USD 6,823.50/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | Colombia | CIF | USD 7376/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | Brazil | CIF | USD 6917/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | USA | CIF | USD 7,177/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | Guinea | CIF | USD 7,302/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | UK | CIF | USD 7,167/KG | April 2026 |
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In Brazil, the prices of Coffee were ~BRL 34,231.54/kg and ~BRL 32,587.88/kg, respectively, showing a ~4.8% decrease in the first two months of Q2'26. The decline was mainly linked to an improved Brazilian crop outlook as production recovered strongly and Arabica availability improved. This reduced supply-risk premiums and encouraged sellers to accept lower price levels. In Guinea, the prices of Coffee were ~GNF 63,892,500.00/kg in April and ~GNF 60,882,270.00/kg in May, showing a ~4.7% decrease, following the same global downtrend. However, Robusta stayed relatively firm because Vietnam remained central to supply and certified stocks were low. Vietnam’s April exports reached a record April level, improving availability and reducing panic buying in Asia. Retail demand remained steady, especially in North America, where weekly coffee consumption stayed high, but roasters still faced freight disruptions.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, near term, prices may remain volatile, with larger Brazil supply capping gains and logistics, fertilizer, and stock risks supporting local markets.
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Coffee prices moved within a volatile range, influenced by contrasting supply signals and selective trade flow shifts. Support came from tightening availability and export disruptions, while downside pressure persisted due to expectations of higher production and increased supplies from key producers. From the Indian perspective, export volumes declined by 4.47% to 3.84 lakh tonnes in 2025, while export value rose by 22.50% to USD 2,058.06 million, reflecting stronger price realization. Demand conditions remained subdued as high prices reduced discretionary consumption, limiting aggressive procurement and keeping market sentiment balanced.
Additional upward pressure emerged from geopolitical disruptions, particularly the Middle East conflict impacting key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption increased freight, insurance, and fuel costs, tightening global supply chains and raising import costs for coffee-consuming regions. Supply uncertainty and logistical delays further supported price gains as market participants reacted to potential shortages and rising transportation costs.
Coffee is a well-known brewed drink that is produced from roasted coffee beans. These coffee beans are the seeds of berries belonging to certain Coffea species. It is darkly colored, bitter, moderately acidic, and has a stimulating effect in humans as it is a rich source of caffeine. As it has become one of the most popular drinks in the world, coffee plants are now cultivated in over 70 countries, mainly in the equatorial regions of the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and Africa.
Starbucks Coffee Company, Nestlé SA, Unilever, Chameleon Cold-Brew, Kohana Coffee, High Brew Coffee
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
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Coffee beans are turned into a beverage in a process consisting of four basic steps. First, the coffee beans are roasted, which are then ground. The ground coffee is then combined with hot water, that is, brewed, and finally the liquid Coffee is separated from the used grounds. Although, at homes, it is generally prepared from already roasted, or already roasted and ground beans.
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The report is a detailed study of cost analysis of caffeine extraction from coffee waste.
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