Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose to USD 13,000 per tonne recently, up from USD 12,800 per tonne a week earlier, reflecting a gain of about USD 200 per tonne. The move extended a firm trend that has been supported by tightening fundamentals and steady buying interest in key consuming regions.
On the supply side, growth in global refined copper output has slowed. Industry projections indicate that world refined production is expected to increase by only 0.9 percent in 2026, compared with 3 percent growth in 2025. At the same time, consumption continues to expand, led by China, which accounts for more than half of global copper usage. The combination of slower output growth and resilient demand has reinforced concerns about a tightening market balance.
In response to these pressures, several major producers have recently reported higher output and reaffirmed expansion plans aimed at lifting capacity over the coming years. Production increases in the latest quarter and steady guidance for 2026 signal efforts to offset looming supply gaps. Over the next decade, additional large-scale projects are expected to add significant volumes to global mine supply, with final investment decisions anticipated between 2026 and the early 2030s and start-ups likely from the latter part of the decade onward. Industry estimates suggest that as much as 10 million tonnes per year of new capacity could be required by 2035 to meet rising demand, which is projected to grow from around 34 million tonnes in 2026 to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.
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In concentrate markets, processing charges have remained under strain. Long-term treatment and refining charge benchmarks for Chinese smelters have drifted toward record lows, reflecting limited availability of concentrates and uneven regional pricing structures. The squeeze on smelter margins highlights the imbalance between mine supply and refining capacity.
In India, market participants noted that import scrap offers moved higher in line with gains on the LME. Buyers have remained selective, however, citing currency volatility and comfortable inventory levels as reasons to avoid aggressive restocking.
Looking ahead, copper prices are expected to remain broadly steady to slightly firm around current levels. A seasonal recovery in Chinese physical demand and greater clarity on annual processing charge settlements could provide further support. At the same time, profit taking and subdued spot transactions may limit sharp price increases in the near term.
Team Lead - Market Research
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