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Copper Price Trend and Forecast
Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Copper in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).
Copper Price Trend for the First Half of 2023
Copper prices fluctuated throughout the first half of 2023 in the Asian region. The upward spikes were attributed to the high demands from downstream industries like electronics and machinery, while the occasional and short-lived dips were attributed to the oversupplied inventories.
In the Chinese domestic market, the prices surged from January to February, with spot prices standing at around 10112 USD/MT (in Feb '23) but dipped in March as the Lunar New Year holidays reduced the factory operation days. Eventually, quarter 2 began with higher prices, but as the inventories leveled up, the prices again declined in the middle of the second quarter; in June '23, the average spot prices stood at around 9555 USD/MT.
After a whirlwind in 2022, the copper prices started stabilizing in early 2023. The war between Russia and Ukraine in the European backyard had disturbed the supply chains and disrupted trade, plus the skyrocketed energy prices inflicted heavy inflation on the entire region. Hence, alternate trade routes and supply chains were established, which facilitated trade, and crude oil prices also started stabilizing. In the discussed time frame, the Copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with spot prices averaging around 8395 USD/MT in June '23.
The interest rates heightened in the US as two of its major banks collapsed, and the prices inclined in the first quarter; however, with regular movement, a stable price outlook was observed in the second quarter.
According to Procurement Resource, given the current stable market dynamics, the Copper price trend are expected to continue wavering in a narrow range in the upcoming months.
Copper Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022
Copper prices mostly inclined in Asia during the last two quarters of 2022. the Chinese market witnessed some fluctuations in the third quarter, but the sentiments were still very positive, and the final quarter witnessed a consistent surge in prices. The surge in prices was attributed to the active revival efforts in the Chinese industries owing to the lockdown that severely affected economic activities.
Downstream electronics, petrochemicals, transportation, and machinery, etc. sectors posed good demands, which positively supported the market fundamentals. Metal ore refineries were also working to cater to these new demands. Overall, copper had a fair performance during the discussed time period.
The European copper market witnessed mixed price trend during the second half of the year 2022. Prices surged throughout; however, some fluctuations within a narrow range were seen in the middle of the said period. The final quarter witnessed a constant incline in prices. The beginning of the year saw a disruption in the copper market as Russia invaded Ukraine, disrupting trade sentiments for the entire region. The fluctuation in the latter half of the year indicated the market’s struggle to revive. Overall, the copper market remained anchored.
Following in the European footsteps, Copper prices fluctuated in the American market as well. After wavering in the third quarter the prices inclined in the final quarter. Global high economic inflation had a strong effect on the American market.
According to Procurement Resource, with the consistently increasing demand for electrical products, Copper price trend are bound to rise in the upcoming months.
For the Second Quarter of 2022
The cost of copper in the Chinese market weakened towards the end of the second quarter and averaged 70,045 RMB/MT. With the government lifting the covid restrictions, the factories started full-fledged production; however, due to the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream sectors, the price trend for the metal weakened.
Copper prices in the Indian market followed a similar trend. They went from 781.25 INR/kg in May to 700.40 INR/kg due to the fears of recession as the central banks worldwide are tightening their monetary policy to control inflation.
The US hiking the interest rate and the decreased production in China due to covid-19 restrictions fueled the global speculations about recession. Hence, the price of the metals are falling amid low demand from other sectors. In the London Metal Exchange, prices went from 10,247 USD/MT in April 2022 to around 8245 USD/MT in June 2022.
Recently, a dip in metal prices has been seen in the US domestic arena due to the fears of a global recession. Also, the demand destruction triggered due to the recession speculations has further driven the prices down. For the said quarter, the prices averaged 4.32 USD/lb in the domestic arena.
For the First Quarter of 2022
In the first quarter, copper prices varied and increased. At of the conclusion of fourth week of March, the spot copper price was 73,810 RMB/MT, up 0.39% from the start of the week's price of 73,521.67 RMB/MT, and up 12.03% year on year. Copper prices were on a significant upward trend during the quarter.
The market was characterized by extreme volatility. The LME proposed a ban on Russian copper entering warehouses, which exacerbated short-term price volatility. Retail sales of passenger automobiles in the narrow sense fell 10.4% year on year to 1.58 million units in March. On the 23rd march, prices decreased slightly to 73,455 RMB/MT.
The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.1% at 9,981 USD/MT, while the most-traded March copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.8% at 71,460 USD/MT (11,276.81 USD). In the near term, a rate rise may put downward pressure on metals, but if global economic growth remains strong, metals demand may not allow prices to remain low for long.
Copper prices (wire) in the United States have varied between 3,800 USD/MT in 2020 and 9,600 USD/MT in March 2022. Primary metals' prices, like those of other commodities like as oil and gas, have risen considerably since the Covid epidemic. However, the global recovery since then has resulted in high demand for metals in industries such as building, telecommunications infrastructure, and manufacturing.
For the Fourth Quarter of 2021
In the final quarter of 2021, the manufacturing activities witnessed a drop. The production levels dipped as China observed power crunches in the wake of the ongoing energy crisis in the region. This affected the production of copper in the region which led to rapidly decreasing inventory levels of the commodity as demand surged high.
The disruptions in supply due to low inventory levels amidst high demand drove up the copper prices to close to 10,000 USD/MT rising by 36% since the beginning of the year. China imported approximately 4.06 lakh tonnes of the metal after a supply shortage of five months.
In October 2021, copper prices in London hit 9135 USD/MT which increased further by the end of the year as supply shortages were reported from Peru.
Copper prices kept fluctuating above 9000 USD/MT till the year end after hitting record high values in May 2021. High freight costs amidst delays in supply had caused prices to rise while there was hope for recovery in supply among investors.
In Latin America, logistic problems were faced while exporting copper to other countries which added on to the woes of supply deficit. A copper production plant in Peru responsible for 2% of the global output had been shut down due to community issues which affected supply logistics. Labour strikes in Chile over wages had also halted operations in several mines in the region which also contributed to the supply shortage situations.
For First, Second and Third Quarter of 2021
The majority of the demand was driven by China, which is responsible for 50% of the global consumption. The demand increased rapidly ahead of the winters which increased the prices globally. Copper prices hit as high as 10,000 USD/MT in 2021.
Copper inventories in April had fallen by 10% to 155,100 MT as reported by the registered warehouses of London Metal Exchange. The demand increased as economies expanded and relied on sustainable development and thereby shifting to Electric Vehicles (EVs). As more car companies made EV commitments, the demand surged in the region. In Europe, prices hit 4.54 USD/lb amidst a recovering economy.
Copper prices surged high as the economies recovered following the pandemic and as the vaccine emerged. They hit 10,700 USD/MT for the first time in ten years in the second quarter of 2021 followed by a fall to 9000 USD/MT in quarter 3.
In Chile, the production had been hampered by the protests by mine workers against the President which raised concerns amidst low supplies, driving up the copper prices. The resurgence of Covid-19 also added on to the production and supply issues in Latin America.
For the Year 2020
Copper prices rebounded by the end of the year 2020, increasing by almost 18% since October and by 65% since March. The high demand in China, which is the largest consumer of copper in the world, drove up the prices. As the onshore market of China recovered rapidly, the end-user industry witnessed exceptionally high demands in the second half of the year.
The price by the year end had increased to 7600 USD/MT after recovering from the low prices of about 4500 USD/MT in the first half of the year due to the pandemic. The US dollar had been weak against the Chinese currency which drove up the inflation for metal. The production in Australia had been affected by the lockdowns.
The metal’s demand in Europe had fallen by 10% in 2020 in spite of the region being a major consumer of the commodity.
Copper prices in North America hit the 6800 USD/MT mark in September 2020 rising by more than its price in March 2020 during which the prices fell due to the lockdown affecting the consumption levels in the region. The production had fallen during the first half of the year which reduced the global output by 1%. Production was hampered in Mexico, Canada and US.
In Peru, the production had been hit by the lockdown imposed due to the pandemic as well as due to the poor weather conditions which disrupted the mining activities in the region bringing down the output by 20% in the first half of 2020. Chile emerged as one of the largest copper producers, witnessing record high production levels in the first half of the year with a 2.6% increase in production.
Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Copper. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.
Copper is a chemical element which is known to be a soft, ductile, and malleable metal. Copper is utilised in several areas, like as a conductor of heat and electricity. Being a metal, it has a very high thermal and electrical conductivity. Further, the element is also one of the essential dietary minerals for all the living organisms.
|Electronics, Petrochemicals, Transportation, Machinery
|Umicore N.V, American Elements, MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, Korea Zinc Co., Ltd., Jinchuan Group International Resources Co. Ltd, Glencore plc, The Doe Run Resources Corporation, Codelco Mining company, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Broken Hill Proprietary (BHP)Group Limited, Rio Tinto plc
|Asia Pacific: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America: United States and Canada
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
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Copper is mined and extracted from the ores of Copper Sulphides. Copper mining is done from large open pit mines in porphyry copper deposits. Mining is a huge process which includes several steps such as grinding, concentration and refining to finally obtain Copper.
The displayed pricing data is derived through weighted average purchase price, including contract and spot transactions at the specified locations unless otherwise stated. The information provided comes from the compilation and processing of commercial data officially reported for each nation (i.e. government agencies, external trade bodies, and industry publications).
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Phone:+1 307 363 1045
Phone: +91 1203185500
Phone: +44 7537 132103