News and Articles

• USDA forecasts Ukraine 2026/27 sunflower oil exports at 5.1 MMT, up 16.6%
• Ukrainian sunflower seed output rebounds 23% to 13.5 MMT
• Russian sunflower oil export duty up 36.5% to 9,298 rubles per tonne
• Sunflower oil FOB six European ports peaked at $1,409/tonne in January
• Argentine sunflower crushing rose 15% with exports doubling year on year

The global sunflower oil market is moving toward a meaningful supply rebuild in the 2026/27 season after two tight years that pushed Black Sea FOB offers to multi-year highs. USDA's May circular projects Ukrainian sunflower seed production at 13.5 million tonnes for 2026/27, up nearly 23% from the decade-low 11 million tonnes harvested in 2025/26. Russian output is set to rise 10% to 19.2 million tonnes. Ukrainian sunflower oil production is forecast at 5.633 million tonnes, a 19% gain, with exports climbing to 5.1 million tonnes from 4.375 million, restoring Kyiv's position as the world's top sunflower oil exporter.

Russia retains the production crown at 7.517 million tonnes, but elevated export duties continue to cap outbound oil flows. The Russian sunflower oil export duty was raised 36.5% to 9,298 rubles per tonne for January 2026, with further increases keeping margins under pressure. The duty structure favours domestic crushing and oil sales while pushing meal exports out at zero duty, and the duty differential continues to shape Black Sea trade flows. Russian shipments have weakened, opening a window for Ukrainian crushers in April and May.

Prices have eased from January peaks but remain firm. Sunflower oil FOB six European ports climbed to around $1,409 per tonne for February shipment in early January after Russian strikes on Ukrainian oil-extraction plants and Greater Odesa port infrastructure. By the second half of March, futures retreated past $1,620 per tonne as Brazilian soybean output expanded and Argentine sunflower crushing rose 15%. Indian buyer demand softened after $4,000 emergency shipping surcharges on Middle Eastern routes added to landed cost. By April 8, the Trading Economics-tracked benchmark sat at 1,596.20 INR per 10 kg, down 1.81% month on month but still 21% above year-ago levels.

Request the Latest Sunflower Oil Production Cost Report - Get Your Free Sample Copy

The 2026/27 supply rebuild is being supported by improved oil-extraction capacity in Ukraine and a 50% expansion in Russian winter rapeseed acreage targeting the Chinese market. Argentine sunflower export volumes have already doubled in early 2026 versus the prior year. Indian, Chinese, and Turkish refiners stand to be the main beneficiaries, with USDA flagging the largest import increases in those markets.

For edible oil procurement teams, the read is that 2026/27 will offer better forward cover opportunities than the past two years. Buyers should target August-October FOB offers from Ukrainian and Argentine origins, build optionality into refined sunflower oil contracts to switch into RBD palm olein where price spreads warrant, and watch Russian export duty schedules monthly. Black Sea geopolitical risk remains the wildcard, since further strikes on Ukrainian crushing capacity could quickly reverse the price softening.