News and Articles

• USDA forecasts U.S. 2026/27 wheat output at 1,561 million bushels, smallest since 1972/73
• Season-average farm price raised $1.50 to $6.50 per bushel
• World ending stocks pegged 5.5 MMT below trade estimates at 275 MMT
• Chicago Dec-26 wheat rose 6% on May 12, then eased to $6.50 by May 18
• Importers Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines expected to cut wheat feed use

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pushed wheat futures to a two-year high on May 12 when its first survey-based 2026/27 outlook pegged the American crop at the smallest level in fifty-three years. Total U.S. all-wheat production was forecast at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from the previous season and 21% lower year on year, with the all-wheat yield projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, 5.8 bushels below last year's record. The season-average farm price was lifted by $1.50 to $6.50 per bushel, a three-year high.

Winter wheat carried the bulk of the cut. Production was projected down 25% to 1,048 million bushels, the lowest level since 1965/66, after persistent drought across Hard Red Winter belt states and a smaller planted area. By mid-week, USDA's weekly crop ratings showed only 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of late May, far below the 52% rating a year earlier. Crop scouts touring Kansas estimated Hard Red Winter yields at 39.3 bushels per acre, compared with 53.3 a year ago.

Global numbers reinforced the bullish tone. World wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 were forecast at 275.04 MMT, with the EU down 2.3 MMT, Australia 1.4 MMT lower, Canada off 1.3 MMT, and Russia 0.9 MMT lower. The 2025/26 and 2026/27 stock estimates both came in below average trade expectations by 3.7 MMT and 5.5 MMT respectively. Importing countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are expected to scale back wheat feed use as prices climb relative to corn and other feed grains, while Brazil is set to lift imports.

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Chicago December 2026 wheat closed 6% higher on the day of the report. Paris milling wheat for December rose 3.6% and UK November feed wheat gained 2.7% to its highest contract level since February 2025. The rally then partially unwound. By May 18, Chicago futures slipped to around $6.50 a bushel as traders took profits and Beijing held back from confirming the $17 billion annual US farm purchase target that Washington had announced after the Trump-Xi meeting. Kansas City Hard Red Winter and Minneapolis spring wheat also pulled back from highs of $7.50 and over $7 respectively.

Procurement implications are sharp. Flour millers, biscuit makers, and animal feed compounders will face tighter forward cover from origins competing with U.S. supply, while higher fuel and fertiliser costs linked to Middle East tensions are adding to landed cost. Egyptian, Algerian, and South Asian importers should watch Black Sea offers closely, since Russian and Ukrainian wheat will become the dominant pricing reference once American exports thin.