The International Labour Organization has Lowered Its Projection for Labour Market Recuperation for 2022
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has amended its forecast for labour-market recovery in 2022, projecting a global deficit in hours worked of 52 million full-time jobs in 2022, up from the fourth quarter of 2019. There was a shortage of 26 million full-time corresponding jobs that was forecasted in the preceding full-year estimate in May 2021. While this latest projection is an improvement over the situation in 2021, it is still nearly 2% lower than the number of global hours worked before the pandemic, according to the ILO World.
Until at least 2023, global unemployment is expected to remain higher than before COVID-19. The population will increase to 207 million by 2022, from 186 million in 2019. According to the ILO report, the overall impact on employment is much more significant than this measured performance since many people have left the workforce. The global, national unemployment rate will be 1.2 percentage points lower in 2022 than in 2019. The reduction in the 2022 forecast reflects, to some extent, the impact of recent COVID-19 variants, such as Delta and Omicron, on the workplace, and significant uncertainty about the pandemic's future course.
The WESO Trends report cautions of harsh disparities in the impact of the predicament across worker groups and countries. These disparities are widening inequalities within and between nations and weakening nearly every country's economic, financial, and social fabric, regardless of development status. This damage will most likely take years to repair, with long-term implications for labour force participation, household incomes, and social and possibly political cohesion. The effects are indeed being experienced in labour economies around the globe, though recovery patterns vary drastically. Nationally, high-income countries fare the best in labour-market recovery, while lower-middle-income economies fare the worst.
The report predicts that the crisis' disproportionate impact on women's employment will persist in the coming years. While the closure of educational and training institutions will have long-term consequences for young people, especially those without internet access The outlook is still bleak two years into the crisis, and the road to recovery is slow and uncertain. They are already witnessing potentially long-term damage to labour markets and alarming increases in poverty and inequality. For example, many workers are being forced to change jobs due to the prolonged slump in international travel and tourism.
There will be no proper recovery from this pandemic unless a broad-based labour market recovery. And to be long-term, this recovery must be founded on the principles of decent work, such as health and safety, equity, social protection, and social dialogue. The WESO Trends report contains comprehensive labour market forecasts for 2022 and 2023. It provides assessments of how global labour market recovery has unfolded, reflecting different national approaches to pandemic recovery, and analysing the effects on various worker groups and economic sectors.
As per the ILO report, temporary employment provided some people with a buffer against the shock of the pandemic, as it had in previous crises. While many temporary jobs were terminated or did not get renewed, new ones were created, including for workers who had lost permanent jobs. The prevalence of quick work did not change on average.