The United States Department of Agriculture has projected a sharply tighter wheat market for the 2026-27 crop year while pointing to ample corn and soybean supplies, setting the stage for divergent procurement strategies across the grain complex. In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released on 12 May, the agency placed U.S. wheat output at 1.561 billion bushels, a level not seen since 1972, reflecting drought damage across parts of the western Plains and a sharp reduction in Hard Red Winter production.
The new wheat forecast represents a decline of 424 million bushels compared with the previous marketing year, with harvested area and yields both moving lower. Ending stocks for 2026-27 are expected to fall 18 percent to 762 million bushels, and the season-average farm price has been lifted by $1.50 to reach $6.50 a bushel. The all-wheat yield was pegged at 47.5 bushels per acre, well below the record set last year.
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Corn production was estimated at 15.995 billion bushels and soybean output at 4.435 billion bushels, with both crops on track to become the second-largest harvests in U.S. history. Corn planted area is projected at around 95.3 million acres, with yields assumed at 183 bushels per acre under normal growing conditions. The season-average corn price was placed near $4.40 a bushel, and the soybean price was forecast at $11.40 a bushel.
Soybean crush is forecast to rise to 2.750 billion bushels, an increase of 120 million from the prior year, supported by strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock under the Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027. Soybean oil use in biofuel production is expected to reach 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion year on year. Ending stocks for soybeans were projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million.
On the international side, global wheat production was reduced to 819.1 million tonnes from a record 843.8 million the prior year, with declines in major exporters including the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The agency lifted Argentina's corn harvest by 7 million tonnes to 59.0 million and raised Brazil's corn output by 3 million tonnes to 135 million. Brazil and Argentina soybean production was left unchanged at 180 million and 48 million tonnes respectively. Wheat futures advanced in the immediate aftermath of the release, while grain traders began repositioning for a marketing year defined by wheat tightness alongside abundant feed grain and oilseed inventories.
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