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• Early trial yields averaged 8.28 tonnes per hectare.
• Five-year yields averaged 9.93 tonnes per hectare.
• Heat and drought shortened the grain-filling period.
• Northern crops retained better production potential.
• Buyers face separate volume and quality risks.

Initial winter barley trial results have raised concern about the volume and quality of grain that could reach the UK market this season. Four fungicide-treated trial sites in Yorkshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk produced an average control yield of 8.28 tonnes per hectare. That was 1.65 tonnes below the five-year average of 9.93 tonnes per hectare. The crops were also harvested earlier than the previous season, reflecting rapid development under dry and hot conditions.
 
Good autumn drilling conditions and a mild winter had supported strong yield potential at the start of the growing cycle. Prolonged drought and high temperatures later caused early leaf and stem ageing, which limited grain filling on lighter soils. Trial managers expect more sites to show weather damage as the remaining results are collected. Crops in northern England and Scotland have retained better yield potential due to different rainfall and temperature patterns.

The early average covers only four of the 15 treated trials, so variety rankings and national yield estimates can still change. Several hybrid and two-row feed varieties performed above their long-term averages at the first sites. The data also showed wide variation within drought-affected fields, making it difficult to separate the performance of individual varieties from local soil moisture differences.

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Feed manufacturers, maltsters, brewers and distillers face two connected risks. Lower yields reduce the total volume available, and heat stress can affect grain size, germination, nitrogen content and screening losses. A crop that meets feed requirements can still fail a malting specification. Buyers relying on fixed quality thresholds could face higher rejection rates or premiums for parcels that meet brewing and distilling requirements.

Purchasing teams should separate volume risk from quality risk when negotiating contracts. A base commitment can cover expected demand, with optional tonnage secured from suppliers in regions that received more rainfall. Contracts should define moisture, protein, germination, admixture and grain-size limits, along with the method used to settle quality disputes.

Feed buyers have more substitution choices than maltsters, but replacement with wheat or corn depends on nutritional value, local prices and freight. Buyers should compare delivered cost rather than farmgate value alone. Early booking of storage, testing and transport capacity will help prevent delays if harvest arrivals become uneven. The remaining trial and commercial harvest results will determine whether the initial weakness becomes a wider supply problem.