The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service expects Philippine coconut oil exports to rise to 1.19 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, up from 1.13 million tonnes in the prior season. The increase is tied to a recovery in copra crush volumes and better oil extraction rates across the processing sector.
Philippine copra output is forecast to reach 2.65 million tonnes, about 1.9% above the adjusted estimate for the previous season. USDA linked the recovery to improved rainfall, better tree health, and a rebound from drought-related losses caused by El Niño.
Exports are still expected to remain below the recent peak of about 1.67 million tonnes. Domestic use continues to absorb part of the country’s coconut oil supply through the B3 biodiesel blending mandate, which requires fuel blenders to include coconut-based biodiesel. This limits the volume available for export, even as raw material supply improves.
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Indonesia is also expected to ship more coconut oil, with exports projected at about 624,000 metric tonnes, up from 562,000 tonnes. The increase reflects better copra availability and policy support for domestic processing before export. Malaysia and Papua New Guinea are expected to add smaller volumes.
For buyers in food processing, oleochemicals, personal care ingredients, and biofuels, higher export availability is creating a more favorable buying environment than the tight market seen in 2024. Annual-volume buyers may have room to negotiate supply terms before weather risks return during the Philippine typhoon season.
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