News and Articles

• cotton crop condition fell to 46% Good-to-Excellent across 15 producing states in the latest USDA Crop Progress report, down from 48% the prior week and below the 52% recorded at the same point last year.
• Texas, the nation's largest cotton-producing state, recorded only 36% Good-to-Excellent, with 8% Very Poor and 15% Poor, reflecting continued intensification of heat and moisture stress through the growing season.
• Cotton squaring reached 49% nationally, slightly ahead of the five-year average, while boll setting reached 14%, exactly matching the five-year average and tracking ahead of the prior-year equivalent pace.
• California, Arizona, and Missouri posted the strongest condition ratings in the survey at 95%, 91%, and 85% Good-to-Excellent respectively, highlighting the pronounced geographic divergence across the belt.
• The reversal from year-on-year strength to year-on-year deficit in overall crop condition makes July weather across the southern plains the single most consequential variable for the 2026 US cotton supply outlook.

The USDA's weekly Crop Progress survey showed the US cotton crop's overall condition slipping below the prior-year benchmark in the latest reporting week, reversing the year-on-year advantage the crop had held through much of June. Across 15 major producing states, 46% of the cotton crop was rated in Good-to-Excellent condition, a decline from 48% the prior week and a retreat from the 52% recorded at the same point in the previous season.

The developmental trajectory of the crop tells a different story from its physical condition. Squaring  the stage at which the plant develops flower buds reached 49% across the 15-state region, slightly ahead of both the five-year average and the prior year's pace at the equivalent point in the season. Boll setting, which marks the transition from flowering to fibre development, stood at 14%, exactly matching the five-year average and tracking ahead of the prior year. On a developmental basis, the crop is progressing on schedule.

Request the Latest Cotton Prices Data - Access Price Insights Now

The gap between an on-track developmental pace and a deteriorating condition rating reflects intensifying heat and moisture stress across portions of the belt, most acutely in Texas. The largest cotton-producing state recorded only 36% of its crop in Good-to-Excellent condition, with 8% rated Very Poor and 15% rated Poor. Conditions in Texas have continued to worsen through the growing season rather than recover, and the state's outsized share of US cotton output means its condition carries disproportionate weight in the national supply outlook.

Kansas and Oklahoma each reported 41% of their respective crops in Good-to-Excellent condition, while Mississippi also sat at 41%. South Carolina came in at 51%. Together, the stressed states across the western and parts of the southeastern belt form a material counterweight to the stronger-performing regions, pulling the national composite below last year's reading.

In contrast, California, Arizona, and Missouri posted some of the strongest ratings in the survey, with California at 95% Good-to-Excellent, Arizona at 91%, and Missouri at 85%. Alabama and Arkansas also came in well above the national average, underscoring how pronounced the geographic divergence within the belt has become.

For the supply outlook, the year-on-year condition reversal is the most telling development in the latest data. Through early July, the 2026 crop has moved from a position of year-on-year strength to one of year-on-year deficit, and weather patterns across the southern plains through the remainder of the month will determine whether condition can stabilise or continues to erode through the boll development phase.