Glycerin Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Glycerin in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Glycerine Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

The glycerine market in China experienced fluctuations in the first quarter of 2024, influenced by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand. Glycerine prices initially rose due to an increase in palm oil prices. However, by the latter phase of the quarter, glycerine prices became stable as palm oil prices continued to rebound. The downstream market for epichlorohydrin, the major driver of the glycerine market, showed weak and steady operation throughout the period, offering only minimal support to the glycerine price trend.

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The weak demand and cautious purchasing sentiments of the consumer sector also reflected their low confidence amid the depreciating value of the Chinese Yuan in comparison to the US dollar. Further, the trading challenges intensified by the loss of shipments to Houthi attacks and the drying up of the Panama Canal lowered the export rates of Asian countries, hampering the overall pricing patterns of glycerine.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2024, the glycerine market experienced a significant downturn in prices, prompting extreme measures to be taken by the trading community. This shift was driven by various factors, including seasonal demand fluctuations in key importing regions like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, resulting in a surplus of glycerine among suppliers. Additionally, increased production levels to meet anticipated demand, coupled with a sudden drop in domestic demand, led to an oversupply situation and subsequent price reductions.

The external factors, such as declining palm oil and soybean prices, along with subdued market transactions ahead of the Spring Festival, further contributed to the price decline. The traders also noted the fall in the profit margins obtained from the export volumes as the downstream industries overseas turned towards their domestic markets amid escalating freight charges and delays in shipment arrivals.

North America

In the first quarter of 2024, the abundance of glycerine supplies in the United States, despite a reduction in the country's biodiesel production capacity, limited the growth of the glycerine price trend. This reduction was countered by continued robust biodiesel production in Indonesia and its influx into the American markets.

Further, the popularity of US glycerine in the Asian market declined significantly in Q1 of 2024 as they themselves struggled to destock their existing inventories, reducing the export rates by a great margin. Additionally, the rise in the cost of feedstock chemicals and crude oil further added to the pressure on the trading and manufacturing sectors, depreciating the overall momentum of the North American glycerine price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Glycerine is expected to remain under the red zone in the forthcoming quarters as the outlook of the downstream industries and disruption of global trading routes will limit the growth of the glycerine price trend.

Glycerin Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

In China, the traders reported an incline of whooping 22.5% (approximately) on the back of raised procurement rates. The demand from direct consumers and downstream industries is attributed to the surge due to the winter season, which has always been favorable for the end-user cosmetics industries. Another interesting string of events took place in Malaysia that had a reasonable impact on glycerin prices.

In Malaysia, the cost of palm oil made a remarkable rebound along with the changing winds in the soybean prices as the oil consumption in the region peaked. To cater to the domestic demand for palm oil and regulation of glycerin prices, the country lowered its export rates helped the revival of the glycerin market in the region.

Europe

The environmental degradation in Malaysia and Indonesia escalated the struggles of the importing European countries. These two Asian countries together account for around 85 percent of the output of palm oil, and the restriction in their export rates eventually caused ripples in European glycerin prices. Further, the new environmental laws imposed by European countries over the concerns of deforestation have depleted the domestic inventories and led to a positive uptick in the glycerin price trend.

North America

A U-shaped curve was observed in glycerin price trend during the last quarter of 2023. The market seemed to be negatively affected by the surplus supply and stagnant demand for glycerin as the initial days of the quarter progressed. After hitting the bottom of the curve, the glycerin prices moved slightly upwards as consumer preference shifted in favor of the rising glycerin price trend due to the approaching winter. On the other hand, the production activities suffered from the ill consequences of the oscillating cost of raw materials and the abrupt fall in the crude oil costs as the last quarter approached its termination.
 
Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Glycerin are likely to fluctuate in the forthcoming quarters as the trend is based on the functioning of upstream palm oil industries and wavering consumer preferences.

Glycerin Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

Glycerin market prices in Asia showed mixed patterns during the third quarter of the year 2023. Along with the initially supportive demands dynamic, the feedstock propylene prices also contributed to the fluctuations in the glycerin price graph. The Indian domestic market had a lukewarm start, where the average monthly spot prices of glycerin rose by around 3% from July to August but depreciated by around 9% the next month. With a narrow-ranged price trajectory, the spot prices in India shifted from around 839 USD/MT in July’23 to about 783 USD/MT in September’23.

Likewise, in the Chinese market, the monthly spot prices declined by around 6% in the last month of the quarter after inclining by about 4% initially in the first month. With prices shifting from around 710 USD/MT IN July to about 700 USD/MT in September, the Asian glycerin market experienced mixed sentiments. Overall, short-range variations were observed at the glycerin price index.

Europe

Influenced by the overall decline in Asian glycerin price trend, the European glycerin market also depreciated over the period of the third quarter of 2023. Heavily flooded inventories amidst regular demands drove the glycerin price graph downhill. Overall, dull market sentiments were observed.

North America

Riddled with the looming economic uncertainties in the region, the glycerin price curve gradually wavered southward in the American market. Overall slumping market dynamics were observed with bearish price trend primarily guided by the feeble downstream demands.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, further fluctuations are anticipated in the Glycerin price trend going forward since multiple factors are driving the market dynamics.

Glycerin Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Asian Glycerin market continued downward in the first half of 2023. Prices kept falling, attributed to bearish demands from downstream pharmaceuticals and personal-care sectors. The falling feedstock prices, such as palm oil and other edible oils, did not provide the necessary upstream cost pressure.

The bearish demands, coupled with surplus supplies, pushed the market sentiments down. The glycerin prices fell consistently in the first quarter; however, an almost flat stagnant trajectory was seen in the second quarter. The price of Glycerin averaged around 5000 RMB/MT in June’23 in the Chinese market.

Europe

The European market witnessed a mixed pricing pattern for Glycerin in H1 2023. Limited to no demands resulted in overstocked inventories. The arrival of cheap Asian imports further exerted pressure on the price trend. A short-lived upward push occurred at the end of the first quarter, attributed to feedstock fluctuations, but muted demands did not provide sufficient support to sustain this positive movement. Overall, the glycerin prices kept on a lowered trajectory for most of H1 2023.

North America

The North American market aped the global outlook for glycerin prices in H1 2023. The market dynamics kept stagnant, given the oversupplied markets, and failing upstream cost pressure. The cheap imports from China caused the domestic suppliers to lower their domestic quotations.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the price trend for Glycerin are expected to remain unsettled in the coming quarter. Improvement in the demand dynamics amid positive momentum of products in the market will likely influence the prices.

Glycerin Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Glycerin witnessed a declining price trend in the second half of the year 2022. Constant depreciation in end consumer demands remained the major reason for falling price trend.

As the supply chains improved and Chinese exports got market access, raw material prices came down for glycerin. Both upstream costs and market demand kept reducing, which kept the glycerin market very cold. Suppliers made many attempts to warm up the market, but no significant impact was made. Supplies were hoarded and productions were cut down, but sullen demands didn’t let the glycerin market recuperate.

Europe

Europe witnessed mixed market sentiments for glycerin in H2 2022, but overall, the market stayed considerably stable. Despite the severe economic situation with heavy inflation and an energy crisis, the glycerin market survived. The stable demand amid the difficult economic situation made the existing domestic setup sufficient and imports were not required to cater to the existing demands.

North America

On the contrary with the Asian market, the American glycerine market stayed afloat. Glycerin price trend hovered on the higher end. The high feedstock prices coupled with rising energy and production costs aided the high prices. End consumer demands were also stable for most of the time, thus glycerin prices remained inclined. It was only around December that prices started to fall because of the falling demand.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, glycerin price trend are expected to register a mixed pattern in the coming months. As most of the logistics situations and supply chain issues have been solved the end-consumer demand will be the determining factor for market pricing fundamentals.

Glycerin Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

When compared to Q4 of 2021, the price of glycerin increased in the Asian market by about 15% in Q1 of 2022. The Omicron virus outbreak in China increased demand for glycerin in the pharmaceutical industries, requiring manufacturers to speed up production.

Glycerin was priced at 2139 USD/MT CFR Shanghai in January and at 2227 USD/MT CFR Shanghai in March 2022. Due to declining demand and continuous geopolitical crises, glycerin prices plunged in the second quarter of 2022. Glycerin prices abruptly dropped at the start of the first half of Q2 2022 as a result of consistent demand and available supplies in the Asia Pacific area.

Europe

Prices for glycerin in the European market were reported at 2752USD/MT CFR Hamburg in January and averaged around 2835 USD/MT CFR Hamburg toward the end of the first quarter of 2022. In Q2 of 2022, Glycerin prices were seen to rise in the European market, with an average quarterly tendency of 2.6%.

Due to the lack of demand from end-user industries, the offtakes from downstream industries including food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics played a limited influence in the price increase of glycerin. As Q2 2022 came to an end, the price trend for glycerin stabilised as supply and demand on the market remained constant.

North America

In North America, the price of glycerin increased exponentially by 10% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Prices for glycerin in the US market ranged from 2812 USD/MT in January to 2955 USD/MT in March 2022. The price of glycerin overall showed a downward trend during the second quarter of 2022.

Despite the steady demand from the downstream pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and food industries, the cost of glycerin climbed somewhat during the first half of Q2 due to higher feed benzoic acid prices brought on by geopolitical unrest and logistical challenges. The glycerin stabilised towards the end of the second quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for glycerin will undergo fluctuations in the coming months, varying widely region-wise. Given the ample inventories in the market and muted market transactions, the prices are likely to plateau and stabilize. The demand from cosmetics and pharmaceuticals is still low, which further supports these lower prices.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, the market in Asia Pacific remained stable. This shift was largely attributable to the surge in demand from both domestic and international consumers following the discovery of COVID-19's omicron version. The downstream cosmetics and skincare industry's queries outstripped the Southeast Asian producers' capacity.

As a result of the constantly high offers for palm oil in the Asian market, manufacturers were forced to reduce the operational loads in their facilities. As a result of the ripple effect, the quote for glycerin USP 99.5% grade increased by 28% in Q4 2021, and monthly average negotiations FOB Johor (Malaysia) were finalised at 2055 USD/MT in December 2021.

Europe

Despite the continued energy crisis in Europe, the European market remained buoyant in Q4 2021, owing to excessive demand that outstripped domestic production capacity. The high electricity costs pushed many firms to lower their operating rates, which, when combined with the high freight costs, stimulated the domestic suppliers to raise market quotations. Furthermore, the return of COVID boosted demand even more, and in December, CFR Hamburg glycerin prices (USP grade) were finalised at 2635 USD/MT.

North America

Throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, the North American market exhibited a bullish trend. The discovery of a new omicron variation of COVID 19 in the domestic market prompted increased support from the pharmaceutical industry. As a result, prices increased by almost 10% quarter over quarter, and the DEL Midwest (USA) discussion was decided at 2641 USD/MT in the quarter ending December 2021.

For the First, Second, and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

During the first quarter, supplies in Asia were somewhat balanced, notwithstanding upstream shortages caused by plant turnarounds around the Chinese Lunar New Year vacations. Furthermore, during the Suez Canal blockade in late March, the solvent’s imports were halted. The commissioning of new crackers in China, on the other hand, seemed to bring the situation back into equilibrium. As the downstream pharma sector's offtakes improved, demand soared. Due to rising demand and a global supply shortfall, FOB Shanghai glycerin prices were raised to 1180 USD/MT in March.

Europe

Due to limited biodiesel output in the northwest European region, where multiple refineries were operating at low rates, supplies in the European region were constrained in the first quarter of 2021. Due to the Suez Canal blockage, exports to the Asia-Pacific region were halted in late March.

Although biodiesel output grew in Q2-21, glycerin prices remained high due to increased demand. Low biodiesel output in the region owing to force majeure from BASF and EVONIK for biodiesel catalyst resulted in a price increase in H2-21. High raw material prices and refiners' limited access to crude glycerin worsened the problem.

The upward trend was also reinforced by increased freight charges around the world as a result of a global lack of containers, manpower shortages in major vegetable oil-producing countries, and rising crude oil prices. Prices began the year 2021 at roughly 650-700 EUR/MT in Q1-21, rising to around 1300-1400 EUR/MT in September-October due to rising vegetable oil prices and freight charges.

North America

During the first quarter of 2021, supplies in the North American region were limited. The tightness was due to production interruptions induced by severe freezing weather in the Gulf Coast region of the United States. A big factory in the Bay City site with a production capacity of 120,000 MT/year was forced to shut down due to severe weather. Due to a supply constraint and continual offtakes from downstream sectors, demand soared. OQ chemicals increased feedstock prices, which increased glycerin prices correspondingly, with a quarterly FOB average of 1150 USD/MT in Texas.

For the Year 2020

Asia

During the pandemic, little to no material was supplied from Southeast Asia due to logistical challenges and a lockdown in Malaysia, which led certain oleochemical companies in the country to close. It took at least 40 days for any item to arrive in Europe from Southeast Asia. Although it was just a tiny component of most sanitizer solutions, demand remained high, with a slight increase in interest for usage in sanitizer applications.

Demand spiked in India over the festive season in November, contributing to a significant increase in the currency's value. During the quarter ending in December 2020, the price of refined glycerin in India averaged 880 USD/MT.

In December 2020, Global Green Chemicals (GGC), a prominent refined glycerin manufacturer in Thailand, announced the refined establishment of the solvent’s manufacturing plant. Due to the fact that the biodiesel and oleochemical industries are major contributors to glycerin production, a considerable drop in both industries resulted in its shortage of in Asia.

Europe

Prices for refined vegetable glycerin soared in 2020, owing to a lack of supply as a result of upstream biodiesel production decreases. Biodiesel companies have curtailed, and in some cases totally stopped, output due to a lack of demand for fuels in Europe paired with extremely low to negative profitability.

Some biodiesel producers cut capacity in half, and many plants were shut down for an extended length of time. Supply was further curtailed by an unforeseen outage at a Saipol biodiesel factory in France, which was caused by a fire rather than production restrictions. Average glycerin prices were recorded at 710 EUR/MT in 2020.

North America

Glycerin prices in the United States began to rise later in the year as raw material prices continued to rise. Market was encouraged by increased demand from end-user industries such as personal care and health care.

Prices climbed in the fourth quarter, when WHO announced a formulation for creating glycerin-based hand rub and sanitizers for skin moisturization, raising its demand in the North American market. The pricing trend in the region is expected to be supported by rising Brent crude at least until Q1 2021. Furthermore, a major biodiesel manufacturer in the United States closed its facilities for the entire quarter, reducing its availability on the market.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Glycerin. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.